When do the bulk of interview invites for categorical IM residencies end?

[keindo]

I am loathe to make an entire new thread, but could not find an appropriate one to tack on to. I have heard several different things: that we have another week and programs are now sifting through the "not-an-obvious-invite" applications; that it ended last week, etc.

Any thoughts?

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[gutonc]

I am loathe to make an entire new thread, but could not find an appropriate one to tack on to. I have heard several different things: that we have another week and programs are now sifting through the "not-an-obvious-invite" applications; that it ended last week, etc.

Any thoughts?

Yes...you're probably missing about 52 other correct answers to the question. Back in the day (when, admittedly, the application process was slightly later than it is now), I got interviews into mid-January. Yes the majority were given in October and November, but they do stretch out.

 

[IMPD]

I am loathe to make an entire new thread, but could not find an appropriate one to tack on to. I have heard several different things: that we have another week and programs are now sifting through the "not-an-obvious-invite" applications; that it ended last week, etc.

Any thoughts?

We initially offered interviews in a series starting around September 20th and ending October 14th. We had thought we would have room for another 10% or so of "late" interviews, but the cancellation rate has been lower than anticipated. We are considering adding on a day in January, but are undecided. ERAS shows me 1-2 new good applicants every day or so, which means I will likely cave and send some January invites.

 

[keindo]

We initially offered interviews in a series starting around September 20th and ending October 14th. We had thought we would have room for another 10% or so of "late" interviews, but the cancellation rate has been lower than anticipated.

That's very interesting because I would think that residency programs can anticipate the cancellation rate reasonably well, given that the number of AMG applicants should remain relatively steady. If more people are going to your interviews, that would suggest that either 1) your program is being perceived better, or 2) the average number of interviews people are going to are increasing. If it's the latter, then programs will need to interview more people to fill the same number of spots because people's rank lists will be longer.

 

[HelpPleaseMD]

That's very interesting because I would think that residency programs can anticipate the cancellation rate reasonably well, given that the number of AMG applicants should remain relatively steady. If more people are going to your interviews, that would suggest that either 1) your program is being perceived better, or 2) the average number of interviews people are going to are increasing. If it's the latter, then programs will need to interview more people to fill the same number of spots because people's rank lists will be longer.

Probably both #1 + # 2. Keindo as you expect, most of the programs have already sent their initial wave of invites. There will probably be a smaller wave of invites coming in the next 2 weeks after the top tier applicants cancel some of their invites. At this point is safe to buy your airplane tickets :{

 

[keindo]

We initially offered interviews in a series starting around September 20th and ending October 14th. We had thought we would have room for another 10% or so of "late" interviews, but the cancellation rate has been lower than anticipated. We are considering adding on a day in January, but are undecided. ERAS shows me 1-2 new good applicants every day or so, which means I will likely cave and send some January invites.

Also a followup question: will the late-invited applicants typically be ranked lower than the earlier ones? I assume it's at least partially influenced by the interview, but how much so? I also understand this is likely to vary from program to program.

 

[gutonc]

Also a followup question: will the late-invited applicants typically be ranked lower than the earlier ones? I assume it's at least partially influenced by the interview, but how much so? I also understand this is likely to vary from program to program.

You pretty much answered your own question.

Maybe.

It depends.

 

[keindo]

You pretty much answered your own question.

Maybe.

It depends.

Why can't you just hack into the composite data for every program, do some calculations, and give me hard numbers .

 

[IMPD]

Also a followup question: will the late-invited applicants typically be ranked lower than the earlier ones? I assume it's at least partially influenced by the interview, but how much so? I also understand this is likely to vary from program to program.

Does it make applicants feel better to know that PDs have high levels of anxiety about all this as well? No?

Anyway. We match folks from all interview days. There is nothing about a particular day that downgrades your interview. Having said that, interviewing is exhausting for everyone and no different for PDs, etc. I have bad days where I just am predisposed to hate everyone. That's why there is more than one person doing the interviews. It's also why we discuss extensively. We are looking very hard for the best match. It just so happens that people who we identify early and come early often *are* a better match for us, but that is not because later applicants can't be good matches, it's just the bayesian distribution.

I've been fascinated by the number angle of recruitment since I started this and would happily tell you our match distribution after we're done this year. At which point, it will be too late.

 

[dingyibvs]

Does it make applicants feel better to know that PDs have high levels of anxiety about all this as well? No?

Anyway. We match folks from all interview days. There is nothing about a particular day that downgrades your interview. Having said that, interviewing is exhausting for everyone and no different for PDs, etc. I have bad days where I just am predisposed to hate everyone. That's why there is more than one person doing the interviews. It's also why we discuss extensively. We are looking very hard for the best match. It just so happens that people who we identify early and come early often *are* a better match for us, but that is not because later applicants can't be good matches, it's just the bayesian distribution.

I've been fascinated by the number angle of recruitment since I started this and would happily tell you our match distribution after we're done this year. At which point, it will be too late.

I think such analysis are long overdue! EBM is all the rage these days, so why shouldn't the match process be based on scientific data? Picking the right candidate can mean an upgrade in the level of care for tens of thousands of patients across the board for decades. Now, I'm not saying that candidates could be or should be solely described by statistics--there should always be a personal evaluation done for people (yes, we med students are people too!)--but the process certainly could use an injection of scientific evidence in my opinion.

Sounds like a research topic actually. If I end up at your school, Dr. IMPD, I call dibs on your match analysis project

 

[AmyLase]

Probably both #1 + # 2. Keindo as you expect, most of the programs have already sent their initial wave of invites. There will probably be a smaller wave of invites coming in the next 2 weeks after the top tier applicants cancel some of their invites. At this point is safe to buy your airplane tickets :{

I hope this is true. I only have like 5 invites from about 40 programs and I think I did a good job applying to both university and community programs of varying levels. I remember a friend from last year who had similar numbers and applied to many of the same programs I did had double-digit interviews by this time last year. I don't if there's just that many more applicants this year or what, but I'm getting scared.

 

[keindo]

I hope this is true. I only have like 5 invites from about 40 programs and I think I did a good job applying to both university and community programs of varying levels. I remember a friend from last year who had similar numbers and applied to many of the same programs I did had double-digit interviews by this time last year. I don't if there's just that many more applicants this year or what, but I'm getting scared.

I do not have a very good understanding of the residency process, so you should definitely get a second opinion, but it seems that 5 interviews is a bit low in number at this point. Not to scare you, but it might be good to find out whether 1) I'm accurate, and 2) if so, what you can do about it.

 

[Rock Lobster]

I hope this is true. I only have like 5 invites from about 40 programs and I think I did a good job applying to both university and community programs of varying levels. I remember a friend from last year who had similar numbers and applied to many of the same programs I did had double-digit interviews by this time last year. I don't if there's just that many more applicants this year or what, but I'm getting scared.

FWIW, if you want to turn the whole process into purely numbers and you want a glass half full view:

For US applicants in all specialties, 49.6% matched into their 1st choice, 15.5% into their 2nd, 9.7% into their 3rd, 6.3% into their 4th. That means if you go on all 5 of your interviews and choose to rank 4, you have an 81.1% chance to match, but a 5.5% chance to not match.

If you want to get specific to IM, US applicants who rank 4 programs match about 93% of the time.

And to stay on topic, I noticed the invite thread slowed down quite a bit. And it goes with what people have been posting, that probably most programs have sent most of their invites out, some might have a ways to go, and some already sent all their invites and are waiting for cancellations to send more. I myself am coming to terms with accepting what I have currently as what I'll get, and if I happen to get another invite or 2, it will be a pleasant surprise.

 

[keindo]

...

For US applicants in all specialties, 49.6% matched into their 1st choice, 15.5% into their 2nd, 9.7% into their 3rd, 6.3% into their 4th. That means if you go on all 5 of your interviews and choose to rank 4, you have an 81.1% chance to match, but a 5.5% chance to not match.

...

Where do you get those numbers?

Edit: https://www.aamc.org/download/276874/data/2012matchdaycharts.pdf

Thanks for making me aware of these! Brightened up my day considerably. Now I want to know for IM specifically--and for MY top choice even more specifically! The latter may be unrealistic =p

Edit 2: More updated numbers. http://b83c73bcf0e7ca356c80-e8560f4...ontent/uploads/2013/08/resultsanddata2013.pdf, page 39, and I think where yours comes from.