What Happened with the Enrollment in Programs that Failed to Match in 2019 and 2020?

[fiji128]

The failed to match programs were pulled off of the Rad Onc spreadsheet from Reddit. The 2019 match cohort should've started rad onc training in July 2020 and the 2020 match cohort should've started training in July 2021. The current enrollment figures are current as of January 2022 per the ACGME. So we can actually see what is happening with enrollment after a program fails to match here.

Buffalo currently at 5/6 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 position.
Case Western currently at 7/7 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 2 and 2020 for 1 position. Residency compliment expanded by 1 position as well.
Columbia currently at 6/8 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 positions. Residency compliment expanded by 2 positions as well.
Jefferson currently at 11/11 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 2 and 2020 for 2 positions. Residency compliment expanded by 2 positions as well.
Kansas currently at 6/6 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 position.
Utah currently at 9/10 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
UPMC 8/8 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
SUNY Downstate 5/8 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 2 and 2020 for 2 positions.
Dartmouth 2/4 filled positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
Georgetown 7/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
Miami 10/12 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 positions.
Montifiore 7/7 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 2 positions.
Arizona 6/7 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 2 positions.
Louisville 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 positions.
Minnesota 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 2 positions.
Oklahoma 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
Arkansas 4/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
UC Davis 7/7 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
Tennessee 2/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
Rochester 8/8 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 3 and 2020 for 2 positions.
Beaumont 11/12 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
City of Hope 5/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
Indiana 7/9 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
Stony Brook 3/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
Brooklyn Methodist 4/5 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
Tufts 9/9 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
Virginia 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
Virginia Commonwealth 7/8 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
West Virginia 3/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.

West Virginia was first accredited in 2016. They first entered the match in 2017. They subsequently failed to match in 2017, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

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[TheWallnerus]

The failed to match programs were pulled off of the Rad Onc spreadsheet from Reddit. The 2019 match cohort should've started rad onc training in July 2020 and the 2020 match cohort should've started training in July 2021. The current enrollment figures are current as of January 2022 per the ACGME. So we can actually see what is happening with enrollment after a program fails to match here.

Buffalo currently at 5/6 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 position.
Case Western currently at 7/7 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 2 and 2020 for 1 position. Residency compliment expanded by 1 position as well.
Columbia currently at 6/8 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 positions. Residency compliment expanded by 2 positions as well.
Jefferson currently at 11/11 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 2 and 2020 for 2 positions. Residency compliment expanded by 2 positions as well.
Kansas currently at 6/6 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 position.
Utah currently at 9/10 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
UPMC 8/8 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
SUNY Downstate 5/8 filled positions. Did not match in 2019 for 2 and 2020 for 2 positions.
Dartmouth 2/4 filled positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
Georgetown 7/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 position.
Miami 10/12 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 positions.
Montifiore 7/7 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 2 positions.
Arizona 6/7 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 2 positions.
Louisville 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 positions.
Minnesota 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 2 positions.
Oklahoma 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
Arkansas 4/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
UC Davis 7/7 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
Tennessee 2/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 1 and 2020 for 1 positions.
Rochester 8/8 positions filled. Did not match in 2019 for 3 and 2020 for 2 positions.
Beaumont 11/12 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
City of Hope 5/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
Indiana 7/9 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
Stony Brook 3/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
Brooklyn Methodist 4/5 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
Tufts 9/9 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.
Virginia 6/6 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
Virginia Commonwealth 7/8 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 2 positions.
West Virginia 3/4 positions filled. Did not match in 2020 for 1 position.

West Virginia was first accredited in 2016. They first entered the match in 2017. They subsequently failed to match in 2017, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

The message here is clear.

Don’t let a little failure prevent you from achieving your dreams.

 

[deleted1111261]

Remarkable work, @fiji128

 

[deleted1111261]

 

[TheWallnerus]

Anthony Zietman, circa 2015:

"The competition to match into Radiation Oncology has been intense for years and shows little sign of abating. Board scores in the upper 90th percentiles, flawless transcripts, and substantial research experience (often obtained by taking a year off) are the norm rather than the exception. As daunting as such standards may be, at least they are oriented toward things with intrinsic worth: academic and clinical excellence. This competition is also reasonably fair, in that all medical students can strive for such benchmarks if they choose, and on that basis be compared in a relatively objective way."

I therefore ask the PDs and chairs who have been filling spots that were unmatched, and as students with "board scores in the upper 90th %iles, flawless transcripts, and... research experience" have dwindlingly matriculated into rad onc.......

Which will we see fade away in rad onc over the next several years?
The academic excellence?
The clinical excellence?
Or both?

 

[seper]

this table supports that correction of workforce size is ongoing

 

[CaesarRO]

So outside the match includes SOAP, right? Anyway to figure out programs filling outside SOAP?

 

[fiji128]

So outside the match includes SOAP, right? Anyway to figure out programs filling outside SOAP?

Just that program did not match. Spots could've been filled in the SOAP or whatever after the SOAP. Also there is no way to know how the numbers may have been impacted by those transferring to other programs or to other specialties.

 

[temujim]

Anthony Zietman, circa 2015:

"The competition to match into Radiation Oncology has been intense for years and shows little sign of abating.

Is it possible for one man to be so wrong about so much in the field? Doesn't matter; he got his.

 

[OTN]

Is it possible for one man to be so wrong about so much in the field? Doesn't matter; he got his.

Of course it is- just ask Dr. Benjamin Smith

 

[jondunn]

Spratt and Kachnic expanded

They the worst

 

[deleted1111261]

Did Spratt or was it before him?

 

[fiji128]

Did Spratt or was it before him?

Program was expanded prior to his arrival sometime between 2019 and 2021.

 

[jondunn]

I don’t care if it was before, after, under, or over spratt

If spratt is the KING GOD he says he is, he can fix

 

[thecarbonionangle]

everyone is against protons until they have them.

Everyone is against hellpits expanding until they head them.

 

[2021Doctor]

 

[ramsesthenice]

The message here is clear.

Don’t let a little failure prevent you from achieving your dreams.

 

[temujim]

Of course it is- just ask Dr. Benjamin Smith

Ah yes, but Zeitman was the editor in chief for that article.

 

[Chartreuse Wombat]

Ah yes, but Zeitman was the editor in chief for that article.

Ummm....fake news

The Ben Smith paper was in JCO in 2010

https://ascopubs.org/doi/full/10.1200/JCO.2010.31.2520

Anthony was EIC of RJ

 

[temujim]

Ummm....fake news

The Ben Smith paper was in JCO in 2010

https://ascopubs.org/doi/full/10.1200/JCO.2010.31.2520

Anthony was EIC of RJ

You're right; got it mixed up with the follow up mea culpa article in the red journal.

 

[Chartreuse Wombat]

You're right; got it mixed up with the follow up mea culpa article in the red journal.

AZ agrees with most on SDN that the increase in spots was ill-advised. Let's get to 150/year ASAP

 

[medgator]

AZ agrees with most on SDN that the increase in spots was ill-advised. Let's get to 150/year ASAP

Eventually, maybe. Let's get to 100 first and then slowly ramp it up as needed. There has never been a documented undersupply of radiation oncology labor. Like ever

 

[thecarbonionangle]

AZ agrees with most on SDN that the increase in spots was ill-advised. Let's get to 150/year ASAP

What are you doing to cut your program?

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

AZ agrees with most on SDN that the increase in spots was ill-advised. Let's get to 150/year ASAP

Agree in what way? Behind closed doors? We mainly have the widely-circulated story by @Gfunk6 in April 2016 about AZ saying the "canary" line at the UCSF course (which I believe was an accurate account, but it is, technically, hearsay).

He's a part of the nebulous, oft referenced "leadership". By his actions, for all I can see: he is 100% in support of expansion.

 

[Doctorer]

He said the canary line at an Astro plenary in 2010.

 

[RickyScott]

He said the canary line at an Astro plenary in 2010.

I will never understand this. The EIC of red journal makes thus statement 10+ ago years and writes several articles to this effect, yet somehow the problem is the misanthropes on sdn and clowns on twitter.

 

[jondunn]

AZ was the biggest name in rad onc during the entire field falling apart. He was the king and he had influence

He’s ‘innocent’ like OJ was innocent

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

 

[RickyScott]

I will never understand this. The EIC of red journal makes a statement like this 10+ ago years and writes several articles to this effect, yet somehow the problem is the misanthropes on sdn and clowns on twitter.

AZ was the biggest name in rad onc during the entire field falling apart. He was the king and he had influence

He’s ‘innocent’ like OJ was innocent

When AZ first brought this up 12 years ago, I thought he was blowing smoke. While he was not an “activist” he certainly published some prescient articles along with Trevor Royce and others. Gotta give him credit

 

[CaesarRO]

Does anybody have the numbers for 2020, 2021, 2022 match to continue this graph?

Looking at NRMP data from 2022, it seems there were 176 (10 categorial, 166 advanced) in 2022 offered before considering the number of spots filled pre/post-SOAP. If I'm not missing something (which I might be) this at least points to early signs of a correction beginning.

We can all agree that this needs to happen faster and reduce further, but I think the above data in this thread may still suffer from the delay of years in med students match -> TY year -> start Rad Onc. The below graph is more of a lead indicator, I think.

Edit: Just pulled up 2021 -> 15 Categorical and 173 Advanced (188 spots total)
Does anybody have 2020?

 

[OTN]

This is the graph that tells the whole story. More than doubling of residency positions offered in 18 years. Insanity.

 

[Mandelin Rain]

ARRO must have the number of total, active residents in Rad Onc year to year. This is the only number that matters. People are constantly swapping in and out outside of the NRMP process.

 

[Chartreuse Wombat]

What are you doing to cut your program?

At the risk of doxxing myself...as PD I argued not to increase complement. I stepped down as PD as I decided nearly two decades at 2 programs was probably enough. My program increased 2 years after I left PD.

FWIW I have not had resident coverage for 4+ years