What do I need to know about coronavirus?

[Apollyon]

‘Whistleblower’ Claiming China Created Covid-19 Coronavirus Has Ties To Steve Bannon

Li-Meng Yan appeared on the Fox News show “Tucker Carlson Tonight” and made a number of unsubstantiated claims.

www.google.com

But, see, when I said this, I was vilified as a conspiracy theorist nut, with the people vilifying me dismissing this out of hand, 100% black letter stating that this was NOT POSSIBLE. Some people would not even CONSIDER that it could be man made or modified. Impossible.

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[WheezyBaby]

It doesn't really matter to me whether or not China created the virus. It's indisputable that China has a large degree of blame in this. At worst they allowed it to maliciously spread. At best they are just incredibly incompetent and corrupt......

I'm only working off my memory of this as it played out to have this opinion, but I can't comment really on the efficacy of China's containment strategy within their own country, and my inability to comment there is I think why China has significant responsibility in this. The lack of transparency and information sharing to facilitate early containment internationally was horrible

 

[WheezyBaby]

But, see, when I said this, I was vilified as a conspiracy theorist nut, with the people vilifying me dismissing this out of hand, 100% black letter stating that this was NOT POSSIBLE. Some people would not even CONSIDER that it could be man made or modified. Impossible.

I certainly thought it was possible, but the evidence doesn't seem to have borne that out. I'm not familiar enough with virology beyond that to be able to form my own opinion

 

[Apollyon]

I certainly thought it was possible, but the evidence doesn't seem to have borne that out. I'm not familiar enough with virology beyond that to be able to form my own opinion beyond that

Yeah, but, see - you're being reasoned and measured. There was at least one, and maybe two or three now, that just could NOT consider it, at all, full stop.

 

[GeneralVeers]

I'm only working off my memory of this as it played out to have this opinion, but I can't comment really on the efficacy of China's containment strategy within their own country, and my inability to comment there is I think why China has significant responsibility in this. The lack of transparency and information sharing to facilitate early containment internationally was horrible

Correct. We have no transparency and even the numbers out of China are suspect. It was bad enough that they had to construct an emergency hospital to deal with all the cases, yet somehow had only 4000 deaths.

Also, during the beginning of the outbreak, they suspended all domestic air travel within china originating in Wuhan, while still allowing flights out of Wuhan to the United States and other international destinations. This was either callousness, an intentional plot to infect other countries, or incompetence. Regardless it makes them an incredibly dangerous country that possesses a huge military and nuclear weapons.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

"Projected Deaths Of Despair" - from Robert Graham Center, American Academy of Family Physicians. Up to "154,037 deaths of despair" predicted, from "massive unemployment, mandated social isolation for months and possible residual isolation..."

Top two solutions: "Get people working...Get people connected"

Um did you actually read this? This is ESTIMATED over 9 YEARS (2020-2029). So their worst care scenario is 154,037 extra deaths/9 years (17,115 per year).

Here in real life COVID deaths are set to be 200,000 in the US sometime this week. It's September and this outbreak didn't actually start in full force until several months into 2020. We haven't even really seen what combo flu/COVID infections look like at this point since flu season was winding down when this became widespread. Biggest hope here is that flu vaccination rates go up and all the mask wearing/handwashing/distancing drops flu transmission rates significantly too.

This one really grinds my gears because there was this huge todo about "all of these people are going to die from suicide because of the lockdown OMG!". We haven't really seen that born out. We are seeing increasing overdoses (unclear why this is, theories range from more use due to social distancing/isolation vs more fentanyl in all drugs currently vs patients not using for a little bit due to the lockdown then going back to using at old doses which now but this honestly pales in comparison to the amount of people that are dying from COVID currently. They estimate these things based on change in unemployment rate (again, if you read the actual paper). So, based on that reasoning, more robust social services/government support for businesses during restrictions= less "deaths of despair".

 

[GeneralVeers]

This one really grinds my gears because there was this huge todo about "all of these people are going to die from suicide because of the lockdown OMG!". We haven't really seen that born out. We are seeing increasing overdoses (unclear why this is, theories range from more use due to social distancing/isolation vs more fentanyl in all drugs currently vs patients not using for a little bit due to the lockdown then going back to using at old doses which now but this honestly pales in comparison to the amount of people that are dying from COVID currently. They estimate these things based on change in unemployment rate (again, if you read the actual paper). So, based on that reasoning, more robust social services/government support for businesses during restrictions= less "deaths of despair".

Since the average age of a COVID death patient is 78, over 9 years what percentage of those patients would have died anyway? We can say that COVID expedited the departure of a large portion of the nursing home population. These were very unhealthy people (in general) who had a likely non-COVID lifespan of 1-5 years. It will be interesting to see if overall deaths, accounting for population increases actually declines over the next few years.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

Since the average age of a COVID death patient is 78, over 9 years what percentage of those patients would have died anyway? We can say that COVID expedited the departure of a large portion of the nursing home population. These were very unhealthy people (in general) who had a likely non-COVID lifespan of 1-5 years. It will be interesting to see if overall deaths, accounting for population increases actually declines over the next few years.

So what? Take out ALL of the 75yo+ patient deaths (we'll assume they were all decrepit old timers who were "on their way out" for simplicities sake even though we know that isn't true). We're still looking at almost 80K deaths by <75yo this year alone so far. My point being that the "deaths of despair" are never going to outpace COVID deaths. Does that mean we should be totally completely locked down with no businesses open? No. But does that mean we should be packing the bars, letting it be open season for frat parties and packing football stadiums either? Not in my opinion. We are certainly capable of analyzing the risk/benefits of various social interaction scenarios and allowing enough that we find a happy medium for some amount of social interaction and critical services (special education children going back to in person school, substance use programs/IOP/PHP being back in person, etc.), along with targeting government support for business sectors highest risk of continuing to be affected by the restrictions.

Unfortunately the political conversation about this seems to be "LOCKDOWN OR GIVE ME BACK MY PRE-PANDEMIC LIFE" which is a false dichotomy to me. It should be neither for the time being.

 

[GeneralVeers]

So what? Take out ALL of the 75yo+ patient deaths (we'll assume they were all decrepit old timers who were "on their way out" for simplicities sake even though we know that isn't true). We're still looking at almost 80K deaths by <75yo this year alone so far. My point being that the "deaths of despair" are never going to outpace COVID deaths. Does that mean we should be totally completely locked down with no businesses open? No. But does that mean we should be packing the bars, letting it be open season for frat parties and packing football stadiums either? Not in my opinion. We are certainly capable of analyzing the risk/benefits of various social interaction scenarios and allowing enough that we find a happy medium for some amount of social interaction and critical services (special education children going back to in person school, substance use programs/IOP/PHP being back in person, etc.), along with targeting government support for business sectors highest risk of continuing to be affected by the restrictions.

Unfortunately the political conversation about this seems to be "LOCKDOWN OR GIVE ME BACK MY PRE-PANDEMIC LIFE" which is a false dichotomy to me. It should be neither for the time being.

We can agree to disagree on this. I've said my piece over and over.

 

[WilcoWorld]

I certainly thought it was possible, but the evidence doesn't seem to have borne that out. I'm not familiar enough with virology beyond that to be able to form my own opinion

Yeah, but, see - you're being reasoned and measured. There was at least one, and maybe two or three now, that just could NOT consider it, at all, full stop.

Correct. We have no transparency and even the numbers out of China are suspect. It was bad enough that they had to construct an emergency hospital to deal with all the cases, yet somehow had only 4000 deaths.

Also, during the beginning of the outbreak, they suspended all domestic air travel within china originating in Wuhan, while still allowing flights out of Wuhan to the United States and other international destinations. This was either callousness, an intentional plot to infect other countries, or incompetence. Regardless it makes them an incredibly dangerous country that possesses a huge military and nuclear weapons.

The fact is that there’s been ample evidence of the Chinese Government’s (NB: not the Chinese people’s) malfeasance for decades. We needn’t speculate about virus conspiracy theories- just look at Uighur ‘re-education camps’ or the treatment of the Tibetan people - both of which are well documented and horrible.
So, yes, the Chinese Govt is certainly capable of such evil but a) I didn’t need convincing that they’re bad dudes and b) I am far more concerned with what to do going forward.
Now, if you’re struggling to convince people that the Chinese Govt are willingly harming people, then I suppose that this would be of more interest to you than it is to me.

 

[Birdstrike]

Um did you actually read this? This is ESTIMATED over 9 YEARS (2020-2029). So their worst care scenario is 154,037 extra deaths/9 years (17,115 per year).

Here in real life COVID deaths are set to be 200,000 in the US sometime this week. It's September and this outbreak didn't actually start in full force until several months into 2020. We haven't even really seen what combo flu/COVID infections look like at this point since flu season was winding down when this became widespread. Biggest hope here is that flu vaccination rates go up and all the mask wearing/handwashing/distancing drops flu transmission rates significantly too.

This one really grinds my gears because there was this huge todo about "all of these people are going to die from suicide because of the lockdown OMG!". We haven't really seen that born out. We are seeing increasing overdoses (unclear why this is, theories range from more use due to social distancing/isolation vs more fentanyl in all drugs currently vs patients not using for a little bit due to the lockdown then going back to using at old doses which now but this honestly pales in comparison to the amount of people that are dying from COVID currently. They estimate these things based on change in unemployment rate (again, if you read the actual paper). So, based on that reasoning, more robust social services/government support for businesses during restrictions= less "deaths of despair".

You seem really mad at the authors of that article.

 

[GeneralVeers]

The fact is that there’s been ample evidence of the Chinese Government’s (NB: not the Chinese people’s) malfeasance for decades. We needn’t speculate about virus conspiracy theories- just look at Uighur ‘re-education camps’ or the treatment of the Tibetan people - both of which are well documented and horrible.
So, yes, the Chinese Govt is certainly capable of such evil but a) I didn’t need convincing that they’re bad dudes and b) I am far more concerned with what to do going forward.
Now, if you’re struggling to convince people that the Chinese Govt are willingly harming people, then I suppose that this would be of more interest to you than it is to me.

My concern is that there will be no long-term consequences for China and thus no reason for them to change their behavior. Big business and establishment politicians make $billions off of doing business with China. They are eager to get back to business-as-usual. Unfortunately that will just set us up for another China-induced pandemic in the future, not to mention continued human rights abuses, and IP theft.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

You seem really mad at the authors of that article.

Nah I’m more annoyed at people who quote things they don’t understand.

 

[Birdstrike]

Nah I’m more annoyed at people who quote things they don’t understand.

I posted nothing but a quote and link to the article, including no words of my own. That's amazing you get get right inside my head, read my mind and assess my level of understanding, without me having ever typed or said a word. Amazing!

 

[WilcoWorld]

My concern is that there will be no long-term consequences for China and thus no reason for them to change their behavior. Big business and establishment politicians make $billions off of doing business with China. They are eager to get back to business-as-usual. Unfortunately that will just set us up for another China-induced pandemic in the future, not to mention continued human rights abuses, and IP theft.

I'd also like to see a scientific post-mortem done once the pandemic is in the rearview mirror and that bad actors be held to account.

In the meantime I'd advise each of us as individual consumers to make a serious effort not to support the Chinese Govt's human rights abuses by buying cheap Chinese-manufactured goods. Check the labels & be willing to spend a few bucks more to buy something made in a country you'd be willing to live and work in.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

I posted nothing but a quote and link to the article, including no words of my own. That's amazing you get get right inside my head, read my mind and assess my level of understanding, without me having ever typed or said a word. Amazing!

I suppose I should take from that that the article was so far over your head that you couldn’t even attempt to interpret or analyze it. Kinda like people who just repost sentences from an abstract without doing any actual interpretation of the paper.

don’t worry I summarized it for you above.

 

[Birdstrike]

Hello Great Depression

You mean we are not in a depression already? Bear market, massive job losses, people raiding food banks?

I think the economic fallout will be worse than the 2008 recession...

Good news. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecast, 3rd quarter of this year is looking like the biggest economic boom in US history, with a GDP increase of 32%. That's not .32%, not 3.2%, but

32.0% !

 

[turkeyjerky]

Is anyone else incredulous about the reported test characteristics of the newer rapid molecular or antigen tests?

They keep on reporting 'sensitivities' in the mid-90s. No mention that this is under ideal laboratory conditions, and that the comparator is PCR, which everyone seems to have forgotten is incompletely sensitive. No mention that every single f'ing season, the hospital lab sends out a memorandum that this years rapid influenza swab has 'excellent sensitivity', only to have a second one come out at the end of the season that it was about 50% sensitive. Every single f'ing year.

 

[GeneralVeers]

If you want to know what its going to be like, and what we need to do, I would ask our colleagues in Wuhan who are fighting this outbreak... this WHO paper is instructional:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Read it, and see how they made the numbers decrease. It took their entire society single-mildly fighting this epidemic. The numbers of new hospital beds, the immediate organization of tiers of care, the immediate cessation of travel and most social activities. It is incredibly impressive. And I'm not all that convinced the USA can pull off a similar feat.

We can't. We should acknowledge that. A partial lockdown was just was worthless as no lockdown and likely caused greater harm. Knowing that we can't lock up the healthy population through the threat of violence for an indefinite period of time, it's reasonable to try and protect the sick/elderly while allowing everyone else freedom with education on good precautions.

 

[Birdstrike]

The WHO now recommends against lockdowns. They now say putting a country on lockdown, only "makes poor people a lot poorer."

 

[southerndoc]

Please limit the political discussion.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

The WHO now recommends against lockdowns. They now say putting a country on lockdown, only "makes poor people a lot poorer."

Well not exactly. "The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we'd rather not do it."

That was the initial purpose of the lockdowns, and that still makes sense. It's the super lengthy and continued lockdowns that are more problematic in the way the article describes.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Finally the medical community is speaking out. I'd urge all of you who believe in EVIDENCE and are against arbitrary lockdowns to sign The Great Barrington Declaration. https://gbdeclaration.org/

It's frightening to me that "Certain Politicians" are teasing more lockdowns based on "expert" advice when the experts got things so disastrously wrong, and continue to do so.

 

[southerndoc]

Thread closed due to continued political discussion. Please see the Lounge for opportunities to discuss politics.