Trends in Medicine

[premeddick]

What sort of trends do you all see happening in medicine?

Do you think doctors will get paid more or less in the future?
Do you think women will continue to be a higher and higher percentage of medical students?
Will we see malpractice reform?
Will health care be more socialized?

What do you all think?

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[110467]

There's definitely some wage readjustment going on already. Their shifting the balance of pay a lot. Instead of basing salary more on physical work done and specialty skills (e.g. surgery, technical diagnostics like in radiology, etc.) their going to start giving a lot more credit to general practioners for the time input in seeing patients and the process of diagnosing patients (which is mental work rather than physical, or specific skill oriented work). That's already in the works. So basically what branch of medicine you're in will determine if your pay goes up or down probably more than anything.

I think more women will join the medical workforce, but the change won't be drastically different in the near future probably (probably just a few percentage points). Most of the American public has moved greatly towards gender equality and I think any changes made in the workforce in that area will just be small changes as society moves to equilibrium in that area.

As far as the other two go, I'm not really sure. I can only hope that there will be malpractice reforms and that the American public will move towards supporting universal healthcare. The way things are going though, as more and more segments of society/industry become privatized, the current trend is that healthcare will move towards more privatization.

 

[modelslashactor]

1. I think the best we can hope for is pay increases in line with inflation. Lawmakers have toyed with not only stagnating medicare reimbursements but actually decreasing them, meaning salary goes down even with inflation marching on.

2. Women will probably be 55-60% of med students in the future. As Kongfuzi mentioned, this is in line with the way the rest of the country is going and will have little or no change on medicine in relation to other jobs.

3. We are already seeing malpractice reform and it will continue if there are docs in danger of shutting down because of it.

4. Healthcare is already quite socialized and will become more socialized as a result of medicare. The government is already responsible for 50% of healthcare spending as a result of medicare/medicaid, you can imagine what will happen to that number as the boomers turn 65.

 

[110467]

4. Healthcare is already quite socialized and will become more socialized as a result of medicare. The government is already responsible for 50% of healthcare spending as a result of medicare/medicaid, you can imagine what will happen to that number as the boomers turn 65.

True, but look at the trends against socialization in other areas. With all the problems the country's going through with things like Social Security and other such social programs, I can't help but think the government will get pushed out of other areas, possibly including Healthcare, by industry. The government can't pay for something if it doesn't have the money to do so... well, it can increase the deficit and do so, but how much longer will that last I wonder. But, that's just a hypothesis I guess.

 

[Pkboi24]

What sort of trends do you all see happening in medicine?

Do you think doctors will get paid more or less in the future?
Do you think women will continue to be a higher and higher percentage of medical students?
Will we see malpractice reform?
Will health care be more socialized?

What do you all think?

1. Less, but hopefully still more than most people.
2. I hope so.
3. Depends heavily on answer to number 4.
4. Yes. Although this does have it's ups and downs. Socialized medicine may mean that quality of care will decrease.

 

[modelslashactor]

True, but look at the trends against socialization in other areas. With all the problems the country's going through with things like Social Security and other such social programs, I can't help but think the government will get pushed out of other areas, possibly including Healthcare, by industry. The government can't pay for something if it doesn't have the money to do so... well, it can increase the deficit and do so, but how much longer will that last I wonder. But, that's just a hypothesis I guess.

Well you very well could be right, but for that to happen we would first see the unprecedented levels of socialization in medicine that I alluded to. I can definitely see the govt passing it off to something HMO-esque, but either body's solution will probably be to cut reimbursements. The only other solution would be to deny patients procedures, most likely old people, and their lobby is entirely too powerful for that to ever happen.

 

[TCIrish03]

True, but look at the trends against socialization in other areas. With all the problems the country's going through with things like Social Security and other such social programs, I can't help but think the government will get pushed out of other areas, possibly including Healthcare, by industry. The government can't pay for something if it doesn't have the money to do so... well, it can increase the deficit and do so, but how much longer will that last I wonder. But, that's just a hypothesis I guess.

America's biggest problem: the mindset that we want Lyndon Johnson/Ted Kennedy programs at Ronald Reagan tax rates.

If we want universal healthcare, SS with a shrinking workforce, etc, then we all need to be ready to pay at least 10-15% higher taxes. Is anyone ready to do this?

 

[DrMom]

moving to the topics in healthcare forum...

 

[110467]

America's biggest problem: the mindset that we want Lyndon Johnson/Ted Kennedy programs at Ronald Reagan tax rates.

If we want universal healthcare, SS with a shrinking workforce, etc, then we all need to be ready to pay at least 10-15% higher taxes. Is anyone ready to do this?

Or... we could get the heck out of Iraq and then cut our military spending by 75%, and reallocate those tax-dollars to other areas, and *STILL* probably be the greatest military superpower in the world. Many other countries have things such as universal healthcare and education, so why not us? You may be right about the tax increase... but me personally, yes I would be able to handle that (and no, I don't come from a "priveledged" family or anything... my mom makes about $25,000 a year and my dad stays at home and runs our subsistence farm). If the American public would cut their exorbitant consumption rates *a little* and redistribute the wealth *a little* more evenly, it wouldn't be a problem.

 

[TCIrish03]

Iraq is a negligible issue in this case. Before we ever thought of setting foot in Iraq, the prognosis was that SS would be bankrupt without a massive overhaul.
My mom wrote a paper her senior year back in 1980. It was an analysis of the current state of the healthcare system and the perils facing it. Guess what's changed since then? If you guessed "not much", you would be correct.

 

[110467]

Iraq is a negligible issue in this case. Before we ever thought of setting foot in Iraq, the prognosis was that SS would be bankrupt without a massive overhaul.
My mom wrote a paper her senior year back in 1980. It was an analysis of the current state of the healthcare system and the perils facing it. Guess what's changed since then? If you guessed "not much", you would be correct.

The only reason I even *mentioned* Iraq was to refute the possible argument that our current military spending is so high because of our involvement there, which for the most part, it isn't... the rest of my argument still holds true.

 

[HTD]

1. continued and increasing government involvement.

2. decreasing pay for MDs

3. increasing liability costs for MDs

4. increasing overall costs out of proportion to inflation.

 

[dawg44]

Shortages for certain specialties worsens. More of an emphasis is being placed on quality of life by recent graduates and this only worsens the shortage. Reimbursement may go up because of this as specialists cut their lowest paying plans and hospitals more and more begin paying for call and reimburse self pays to deal with the issue of shortages.

 

[Miami_med]

Or... we could get the heck out of Iraq and then cut our military spending by 75%, and reallocate those tax-dollars to other areas, and *STILL* probably be the greatest military superpower in the world. Many other countries have things such as universal healthcare and education, so why not us? You may be right about the tax increase... but me personally, yes I would be able to handle that (and no, I don't come from a "priveledged" family or anything... my mom makes about $25,000 a year and my dad stays at home and runs our subsistence farm). If the American public would cut their exorbitant consumption rates *a little* and redistribute the wealth *a little* more evenly, it wouldn't be a problem.

This is based on your opinion of the role of government. Some of us believe defense is a legitimate role and wealth re-distribution is not. Regardless of whether you agree with a lot of Iraq (And I don't).

 

[110467]

This is based on your opinion of the role of government. Some of us believe defense is a legitimate role and wealth re-distribution is not. Regardless of whether you agree with a lot of Iraq (And I don't).

Universal healthcare and universal education aren't wealth re-distribution, they're social programs. It's reallocation of tax dollars toward more society-oriented and society-benefitting programs rather than the military, nothing more. And since when was the war in Iraq ever about defense?

 

[LADoc00]

Universal healthcare and universal education aren't wealth re-distribution, they're social programs. It's reallocation of tax dollars toward more society-oriented and society-benefitting programs rather than the military, nothing more. And since when was the war in Iraq ever about defense?

Naive foolery. Universal healthcare would be the single biggest disaster in American history. You would have:
1.) large portion of providers that abandon the state-funded insurance programs completely
2.) A subset that would game the system to provide only those types of care which provide the greatest reimbursement/hour of time spent
3.) A large group of people who simply get used and watch their salary drop off a steep cliff

Its simple, in such an idiotic system I would simply identify those government diagnostic codes which provide the highest levels of pay for the least amount of work and chuck everything else. Make as much money as I could and simply leave after I have a big enough nest egg or was tossed out. Luckily I have skillsets to fall back on, others wont be so lucky.

Trust me on this, universal healthcare will spell total catastrophe for any state which imposes it. The difference with Europe and here is doctors know what the inevitable outcome is (poverty, reduction to middle class/second class citizenship, wasted effort etc). You cant slip this socialist revolution by anyone.

SOCIALISM IS NEVER THE ANSWER. Universal healthcare would be a total abandonment of the democratic capitalist pillars this country was founded on. Nothing sort of a full Marxist revolution. In such a scenario, people will definitely get hurt....

Stop lying to our viewers in SDNland, universal healthcare models will be the end to this experiment in democracy we call America. Osama Bin Laden is nothing compared to this threat, the true war on terror is right here, in California!