The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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*getting out the popcorns

Self proclaimed millionaire vs. self proclaimed multi-millionaire
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I'm in the cheap index fund camp. You can't outsmart the market.
 
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oldstock said:
depends on who is "you" ?? :)

http://www.incademy.com/courses/ten-great-investors/-warren-buffett/1/1040/10002

http://www.optionstradingiq.com/top-stock-market-investors/
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Look at Warren Buffet's more recent returns, and look where he directs his money after he dies:

"Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidwi...you-and-my-wife-and-other-quotes-of-the-week/

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/04/0...-lately-looking-a-bit-ordinary.html?referrer=
 
confettiflyer said:
Look at Warren Buffet's more recent returns, and look where he directs his money after he dies:

"Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidwi...you-and-my-wife-and-other-quotes-of-the-week/

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/04/0...-lately-looking-a-bit-ordinary.html?referrer=
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the key words here are "AFTER he dies" :)
 
Yeah I take that to mean "I don't trust anyone else" and neither will I!

Hello 0.05 expense ratios!
 
Following Buffett isn't a bad idea. Buy large cap companies built to succeed and just hold them. It's not get rich quick, but it's how to build a respectable nest egg.
 
Don't think you know something that the market hasn't already know.
 
i started 401k two years ago and bought 100% in CVS stock. they sent me letters saying i was aggressive, etc. but i made good profits by not touching any bonds. CVS stock has doubled since then. at the time i also purchased ESPP deducting 15% off my paychecks biweekly. its been awesome. though by year end i will sell off all ESPP and not contribute to it anymore. // all in all, bonds or stock, u have to know where each is heading. when the stock market is rocky, jump to bond for safe haven. when market is safe play, stock offers better returns.
 
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sosoo said:
all in all, bonds or stock, u have to know where each is heading. when the stock market is rocky, jump to bond for safe haven. when market is safe play, stock offers better returns.
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Sure, that's a piece of cake. Let me consult my crystal ball, once I finish asking it who killed JFK and where Jimmy Hoffa is buried...
 
sosoo said:
i started 401k two years ago and bought 100% in CVS stock. they sent me letters saying i was aggressive, etc. but i made good profits by not touching any bonds. CVS stock has doubled since then. at the time i also purchased ESPP deducting 15% off my paychecks biweekly. its been awesome. though by year end i will sell off all ESPP and not contribute to it anymore. // all in all, bonds or stock, u have to know where each is heading. when the stock market is rocky, jump to bond for safe haven. when market is safe play, stock offers better returns.
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confettiflyer said:
Sure, that's a piece of cake. Let me consult my crystal ball, once I finish asking it who killed JFK and where Jimmy Hoffa is buried...
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I am no Warren Buffett but I agree with sosoo above. It could be done when you get past the "impossibility" mentality. Check these posts of mine if you could,

oldstock said:
been hitting the low end of 2.80's. Close today 06/05/2014: 2.83 !!

chaching !! lol :)


oldstock said:
good info. I have not done enough DD on the fundamentals for this stock, but quick glance over its charts I see ~ 2.7's - 3.0's would be a good entry point. What do you think ??
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rxgolfer said:
I really don't know if GFA will go down to $2.70 again. GFA has picked up a lot of momentum recently. I haven't looked into GFA in a week or so because I was in Vegas but I think looking at the volume today at 1.51 million, that is pretty high which indicates this gaining momentum to move one way or the other. Back when GFA was volatile (up and down 10%, and in the $2.50 range) their daily volume was around 400,000. I don't think GFA will see $2.70 unless something big happens due to macro reasons e.g. escalation of the Ukraine. GFA always moves due to macro events which makes it very volatile and not for the light of heart. With GFA I remember when I wanted to cry when it dropped so much, down to $2.40. I kept buying though. A week later or so later, momentum hit and it was at $3.50. All in all, I think GFA will hit $4 in the next 60 days.
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http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...nvestment-option.1068110/page-2#post-15310023
 
sosoo said:
i started 401k two years ago and bought 100% in CVS stock. they sent me letters saying i was aggressive, etc. but i made good profits by not touching any bonds. CVS stock has doubled since then. at the time i also purchased ESPP deducting 15% off my paychecks biweekly. its been awesome. though by year end i will sell off all ESPP and not contribute to it anymore. // all in all, bonds or stock, u have to know where each is heading. when the stock market is rocky, jump to bond for safe haven. when market is safe play, stock offers better returns.
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Come back here when you beat S&P 500 for the next 30 years. Even Warren Buffet can't do it.

It's stupid to be a stock picker or hand your money to some managers who promise fancy return but can't deliver result consistently for the long run. Check Legg Mason Value fund winning streak 15 years in a row and bust. Your chance to be as good as this dude winning 15 years in a row ? 0. Even if you can do it, you are going to trail and under perform the market eventually. What is your time worth for you?

Luck is NOT skill.
"It's just not true that you can't beat the market. Every year about one-third do it. Of course, each year it is a different group." Robert Stovall, investment manager
 
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Momus said:
Come back here when you beat S&P 500 for the next 30 years. Even Warren Buffet can't do it.

It's stupid to be a stock picker or hand your money to some managers who promise fancy return but can't deliver result consistently for the long run. Check Legg Mason Value fund winning streak 15 years in a row and bust. Your chance to be as good as this dude winning 15 years in a row ? 0. Even if you can do it, you are going to trail and under perform the market eventually. What is your time worth for you?

Luck is NOT skill.
"It's just not true that you can't beat the market. Every year about one-third do it. Of course, each year it is a different group." Robert Stovall, investment manager
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beat or not beat but is Warren Buffet good enough for you ?? I only hope I am as good as 1/1,000,000,000 as he is lol :)
 
oldstock said:
beat or not beat but is Warren Buffet good enough for you ?? I only hope I am as good as 1/1,000,000,000 as he is lol :)
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You can hope to be as lucky as him, maybe you'll make some money or you may lose horribly. You are hoping for luck? Hope is not a strategy.
 
How about I just index the hell out of my account, pocket the spread between the ER of an active fund vs. my Admiral funds, and use the time I would have spent "trying to be like warren buffet" and go relax?

Cuz I'm pretty sure in 30 years I'll have outperformed/matched whatever it is you're doing.

I'll take Buffet's advice to his wife, seeing as no one can reliably beat the market. No one. No one is special.
 
From my NYT article in my previous post:

"True investing skill is so rare that the rest of us shouldn’t even try to emulate those who have it. In addition, he says, we probably shouldn’t bother trying to hire the few outperformers to invest our money. Why? Because we aren’t likely to be able to identify them. Their talents aren’t always on public display, and there may be only a few thousand of them in the entire United States."

Even Warren Buffet agrees that an S&P index fund is superior and instructs his estate to go that direction.

So.... Warren Buffet's instructions >>> SDN investment tips.
 
Buffet knows it's foolish to try to beat the market for 99.9% investor. He under performs the market for the past 5 years also say so much why he is an advocate of indexing and tells his wife to do so.

berkshire.png


Looks awfully similar to S&P 500... why bother paying someone close to 1% to get that shltty chart? When you can pay 0.05% indexing?
 
Momus said:
Buffet knows it's foolish to try to beat the market for 99.9% investor. He under performs the market for the past 5 years also say so much why he is an advocate of indexing and tells his wife to do so.

berkshire.png


Looks awfully similar to S&P 500... why bother paying someone close to 1% to get that shltty chart? When you can pay 0.05% indexing?
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Index funds will beat >70% of actively manages funds.due to the low expense ratio, this is basic investing 101.

On the other hand, when you are going for a narrow sector or a hedge, an actively managed fund with insider knowledge can be the difference. But for most non-uber rich, this makes up only a small portion of the portfolio.
 
So Societe Generale is for forecasting gold in the $800s by 2017. Wasn't is supposed to be like $5000/oz or something by now according to the financial geniuses on here?
 
xiphoid2010 said:
On the other hand, when you are going for a narrow sector or a hedge, an actively managed fund with insider knowledge can be the difference. But for most non-uber rich, this makes up only a small portion of the portfolio.
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I divested my sector funds and agree with the above. The other part using you do go into bonds and aren't doing total bond funds (or buying muni's/zero stripes direct), an actively managed bond fund is useful.

I like PIMCO funds and a few funds that allow the manager to use discretion (MW unconstrained)...I set my parents up on those and they balance out the strict criteria bond funds in their portfolio.
 
BMBiology said:
I would because of the employee discount and they are pretty stable. It also depends on when you can sell it.

If you are concerned about risk, sell it on the first eligible day.
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confettiflyer said:
I typically advise people to avoid voluntarily buying into their company stock because now you're dependent on one company for 1) your income and 2) your retirement. The key to stability is diversification, it's like a married couple both working in biotechnology is inherently less stable than having the husband work education and the wife work in biotech.

Worst case scenario, you end up unemployed AND broke at the same time.

If you can obtain stock at a discount, take BMB's advice and sell once your lock-up period expires. Most of my friends that work at Twitter did so on day 1 (which caused their stock to drop big time, whoops).
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The lockup is only 90 days but I usually hold >1 year to get the long-term capital gains tax rate. I also max out my 401(k) and Roth IRA, and have some more Vanguard index funds in a taxable account, so I am in no way reliant on the company stock for my retirement. In the past I have been selling company stock to keep it at 10% of my portfolio, but now I think I will take on some more risk and just let it ride.

And yes, I am another believer in Vanguard index funds.
 
Right now my company stock is about 30% of my portfolio. I am cashing out soon even tho I feel it is secure.

And seriously, if you think you can beat the market why are you still working as a pharmacist. Get your butt on wall street and cash in!

Just remember for you to buy a stock, someone must sell his stock so someone is betting against you. Who is right? What do you know that he doesn't know?
 
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BMBiology said:
Right now my company stock is about 30% of my portfolio. I am cashing out soon even tho I feel it is secure.

And seriously, if you think you can beat the market why are you still working as a pharmacist. Get your butt on wall street and cash in!
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it is called "diversification". High risks high reward. Play your risks appropriately :)


Just remember for you to buy a stock, someone must sell his stock so someone is betting against you. Who is right? What do you know that he doesn't know?
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of course there is someone who knows. This is like a poker game, someone will win and someone will lose. The winner is someone who is playing his/her hands better. The losers are paying the winner :)
 
Momus said:
Luck + Confirmation Bias = OMG, I must be a genius!!! WTFBBQ... sadly, it ≠ Skill
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LOL :)

how about you giving a stock and I will predict the stock price here for you, just for fun :nod::nod:
 
Funny my Money Magazine came in the mail today and there was an article on Warren Buffett with this figure.

I just found out the secret to his success everyone, let's shut this thread down and call it a day...

winning-with-warren-new.jpg
 
lol :)



confettiflyer said:
Funny my Money Magazine came in the mail today and there was an article on Warren Buffett with this figure.

I just found out the secret to his success everyone, let's shut this thread down and call it a day...

winning-with-warren-new.jpg
Click to expand...
 
I'm keeping a low food budget this month...using up whatever's in my house before I venture for some grocery shopping...so I just hammered down the 4 stellas that my friend left here, and the wine cooler that were here from a year ago...

but being frugal to pay off loans is boring

I want to invest a small amount to learn!
 
Okay, I was recently introduced to option trading from a family member and have some videos I am going to watch. But does anyone partake in this or have any good resources for option trading? It seems like one can get a decent return. Weekly options vs monthly options vs longer than that?
 
Jibby321 said:
Okay, I was recently introduced to option trading from a family member and have some videos I am going to watch. But does anyone partake in this or have any good resources for option trading? It seems like one can get a decent return. Weekly options vs monthly options vs longer than that?
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in general, option is poor man's pipe dream. Unless you have a lot of money and a seller, do not do that esp. as a beginner. Do not be tempted !!

Play with common instead, trust me. If you wanna trade or papertrade with me, PM me. But check this first http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...nvestment-option.1068110/page-2#post-15310023 :)
 
Jibby321 said:
Okay, I was recently introduced to option trading from a family member and have some videos I am going to watch. But does anyone partake in this or have any good resources for option trading? It seems like one can get a decent return. Weekly options vs monthly options vs longer than that?
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Option/stock picking will make you lose your shirt faster than you can cum to your favorite porn. You vs the average Wall Street guy with an IQ of 150+ with a $24,000 Bloomberg terminal, 8 screens up, 8 hours a day, day in day out, 5 days a week, plus insider trading information. This is like NBA players vs. you. Who do you think will win this game?
 
Options are stupid for anyone on this forum.

I'm waiting for the next tool to reply going "nuh-uh I'm awesome." Hahaha
 
most people don't realize that options is just equities on extremely high leverage. that's all it is, with the added risk of time.
 
Got more replies than I thought.

Thanks all. Haha.
 
Momus said:
Option/stock picking will make you lose your shirt faster than you can cum to your favorite porn. You vs the average Wall Street guy with an IQ of 150+ with a $24,000 Bloomberg terminal, 8 screens up, 8 hours a day, day in day out, 5 days a week, plus insider trading information. This is like NBA players vs. you. Who do you think will win this game?
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you obviously do not know what you are talking about regarding this matter.

To prove that you do not know jack about stock trading, give me a test just for fun here: I will give you my price predictions for any stock that you pick. Or I could give you a stock pick with entry/exit targets right here on SDN. I already did it once as you can see above, I can do another one to prove to you this is not luck or fluke. If I got it right then, I only need you to say that "yes I was wrong about stock trading. It is possible but I just do not know how" here on SDN ALL IN CAPITALS lol :)
 
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oldstock said:
you obviously do not know what you are talking about regarding this matter.

To prove that you do not know jack about stock trading, give me a test just for fun here: I will give you my price predictions for any stock that you pick. Or I could give you a stock pick with entry/exit targets right here on SDN. I already did it once as you can see above, I can do another one to prove to you this is not luck or fluke. If I got it right then, I only need you to say that "yes I was wrong about stock trading. It is possible but I just do not know how" here on SDN ALL IN CAPITALS lol :)
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Not wasting time on you playing that stupid games... I know you will win some and lose some in any given year (random chance/luck), but you will 100% lose to the benchmark in the long run so you can keep wasting your time trying to beat the market. There is always some idiots who think they can predict the future. If you were that great, you wouldn't finish your school, trade full time, turn that $5000 you have in the bank to $100M and I'd be seeing you in Wall Street Journal/Forbes magazine soon, until then whatever you say is now just crap.

Research has concluded exactly this point: In 1990, it was fairly common to find funds that offered “alpha,” even if only by luck. Nearly 15% of funds did so. By 2006 the number had fallen to 0.6%. These companies livelihood is trying to beat S&P 500, they have no distraction, all they did is researching the market, and they failed to do so. To think someone like you can do better than them is a joke LOL.

"Over the [past] 35 years, American business has delivered terrific results. It should therefore have been easy for investors to earn juicy returns: All they had to do was piggyback Corporate America in a diversified, low-expense way. An index fund that they never touched would have done the job. Instead many investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous. " - Warren Buffett
 
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See, I predicted the above reply, lol.
 
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Momus said:
Not wasting time on you playing that stupid games... I know you will win some and lose some in any given year (random chance/luck), but you will 100% lose to the benchmark in the long run so you can keep wasting your time trying to beat the market. There is always some idiots who think they can predict the future. If you were that great, you wouldn't finish your school, trade full time, turn that $5000 you have in the bank to $100M and I'd be seeing you in Wall Street Journal/Forbes magazine soon, until then whatever you say is now just crap.

Research has concluded exactly this point: In 1990, it was fairly common to find funds that offered “alpha,” even if only by luck. Nearly 15% of funds did so. By 2006 the number had fallen to 0.6%. These companies livelihood is trying to beat S&P 500, they have no distraction, all they did is researching the market, and they failed to do so. To think someone like you can do better than them is a joke LOL.

"Over the [past] 35 years, American business has delivered terrific results. It should therefore have been easy for investors to earn juicy returns: All they had to do was piggyback Corporate America in a diversified, low-expense way. An index fund that they never touched would have done the job. Instead many investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous. " - Warren Buffett
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Wow how true !!!!! except Buffet does not do what he is preaching. He freaking trades the stocks himself. Hmmmm.... (but I am sure you can google and find facts for that one). LOL

anyway, instead of giving a test, you turned to write an essay... that is not scientific, is it ?? Idiocy is what I would call someone who do not have an open mind, follow the herds, and/or jump quick into conclusion without testing. Let's assume I were an idiot to argue this matter with you any further. You win :)
 
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I started a very boring CD ladder that I don't plan on touching for next 15-20 years.
 
oldstock said:
Wow how true !!!!! except Buffet does not do what he is preaching. He freaking trades the stocks himself. Hmmmm.... (but I am sure you can google and find facts for that one). LOL

anyway, instead of giving a test, you turned to write an essay... that is not scientific, is it ?? Idiocy is what I would call someone who do not have an open mind, follow the herds, and/or jump quick into conclusion without testing. Let's assume I were an idiot to argue this matter with you any further. You win :)
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I don't need to assume, I know.
 
Momus said:
I don't need to assume, I know.
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I did not know that any pharmacist would know that much in the stock market. I guess they taught you that in pharmacy school. LOL :)
 
Momus said:
You wanna be Warren Buffet LOL! A joke at best but you can die trying, dude.
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I am not a 4 years old, mind you, but whatever you say if you feel the need to resort to ridiculing or talking down to people to feel superior instead of being open-minded to new things and/or things that you never know. If JFK had a loser mindset like you, America would not have gone to the moon. But I know you do not want to go to the moon LOL :)

 
Wouldn't it be fair to say the odd of you becoming a successful trader is against you?
 
BMBiology said:
Wouldn't it be fair to say the odd of you becoming a successful trader is against you?
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I agree the odd of becoming a successful trader is low. It is because stock trading/investing in stock market is a zero sum game. There has to be losers who pay for the winners. Like a poker game. But there is someone who wins. It is possible, that is all I am saying :)
 
BMBiology said:
Wouldn't it be fair to say the odd of you becoming a successful trader is against you?
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I agree the odd of becoming successful trading or investing in the stock market is low (even with index fund). It is a zero sum game, and it is also all about timing. Like poker. But all I am saying here is it is possible to be successful in the stock market :)
 
I am not trying to tell you what to do with your money. Obviously it is your choice.

I just don't see the practicality of it. There are better ways to invest for most people. That being said, I have also tried to time the market and while I have been successful, I do not think it is because I have some extraordinary skills that others do not have. I have my youth. I am willing to take risk. That is all I have going for me. The rest is just dumb luck.
 
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