Well, my general feeling that I've stated before on this forum (and it's just an opinion) is that there's going to continue to be a shake out in the "off-shore" route. So far, it appears that there are more and more schools, both DO and Caribbean, trying to "cash in" on the now-predicted huge shortage of doctors by the year 2020. There is a looming healthcare crisis as the baby-boomers continue to age, and I think both the primary care and peri-surgical fields are going to continue to rapidly grow, both at the physician and mid-level practitioner levels.
How this plays out for IMGs? Not sure. At the current rates, it's going to be hard to make up the 200,000 predicted physician deficit even given the expanding classes at osteopathy and allopathy schools in the U.S.
The most important thing to remember is that the
individual is paramount. There are many "diamonds in the rough" out there who go through alternative routes to become a physician. The cream will still rise, even if it is at an offshore school. Likewise, many very highly qualified foreign doctors who want to come to the U.S. and can find a spot will always be welcome. Even today, about 25% of all practicing physicians in the U.S. are foreign-trained. I seriously doubt that this number will decrease substantially, and even if it does (say down to 20%, which would be a substantial decrease), there will still be a need for foreign-trained doctors.
What will happen in the short run is that the fly-by-night Caribbean schools will still spring up like mushrooms after a summer rain, and will almost as quickly go out of business either by not getting enough students to attend and/or the inability to secure licensure for their graduates. The long-running and well-established schools will remain, but they may get more selective. Conversely, they may have to get
less selective as well if the number of U.S. spots continues to increase and the osteopathic and allopathic fields further merge philosophically with the distinctions becoming irrelevant.
Personally, I still like the
French medical education model the best, with some clearly needed modifications and improvements, and I wish that we'd adopt a similar system here. It is the most equitable, and would select overall the most capable students - not just the ones with the highest GPAs and MCAT scores. Likewise, it is much easier to adjust the numbers on a rolling basis using this system.
However, it is FAR more competitive and cutthroat even than the current U.S. system. Still, everyone who wants to become a doctor gets a chance to do so
in their own country and is not forced to take seemingly spurious loophole routes to pursuing their dreams.
In contrast, the Dutch system is the worst. We should be at least be grateful we don't have that kind of system here.
-Skip