No, that number IS the percent of U.S. seniors who match.
Those figures represent:
1) the percentage of people who turned in rank lists and matched (Overall)
2) the percentage of U.S. seniors who turned in rank lists and matched
3) the percentage of U.S. grads who did so
4) the percentage of IMGs who turned in rank lists and matched.
I'm not matching in Ophtho, but there's a report for each specialty, and I guess it's a little clearer for mine. Or maybe it's just been explained to me at some point. I don't know. I just know that that's what those numbers represent.
If you doubt me, you can call SF Match and ask.
The # of registrations are the people who paid to register (855). This would be an overall match rate of (449/855=52%). Now like tarheel 26 pointed out, some people back out. This would be you tarheel. There are not many though.
The next # is the CAS participants which is (792). This is the number that pay and turn in applications. Some may argue that some people do this and back out...but I feel this # would be very small after putting in the money. Therefore, the ACTUAL overall match rate is ~(449/792=57%). Now the 69% overall you see listed does not count in the people who did not get an interview. And yes, I do know of people that this happened to.
The next # are rank lists (648). Subtract that from 792 (792-648=144). So 144 people do not get an interview, or did not rank anything.
89% US seniors does not mean that ~9/10 or 90% of fourth years match. It is the percent of incoming ophthalmology residents that is made up of US seniors. Why? Well, look at the last couple years and look at Pct matching:
US seniors + US grads + IMGs always adds up to 100%. Well, to be exact it always adds up to 99-101% because they round the numbers. Sorry, lets make this easier. Look at the total # of spots (449). Now look at (US seniors 399 + US grads 25 + IMGS 25 = 449). The 89% comes from (399/449=88.864% or 89%).
Therefore we do not know the exact percentage of US seniors that match because we do not know # of CAS Participants (those that send out apps) that are US seniors. It would be (399/ 399 to 742). Where did I get 742: it is (792- (25 IMGs+25 US grads). So if there were only 399 US seniors that applied it would be a 100% match rate
. But we all know that is ridiculous.
Some may say that the SDN poll is close to 88% match rate. We all know that the kids reading this forum are the type who all well informed and will most likely match...right. Plus we have great advice from Dr. Doan. Sooooo....so much for the poll.
And we also know that the US seniors who apply are a self selected group...med students all know specialties like Plastics, Derm, Ophtho, ENT, Urology are competitive, therefore they don't waste their money unless they think they have a chance. I mean the ave. Board score was 231 (Derm was 233 last year, plastics was 231).
Well, lets skip all the numbers and just agree that ophthalmology is competitive.
Sorry for the rant, but I just don't want med students thinking that they have a 90% chance of matching. I don't want to talk people out of it either, I just want the kiddos out there to know that they can match competitive specialties...it just takes dedication, hard work, and a little
Congrats to all who just matched...I hope you are enjoying the weekend!