Lots to catch up on
Love and enjoy the discussion!
Hospitals specifically have excess spots that they aren't filling due to lack of Medicare funding for those spots.
If Medicare funded those spots at hospitals, then the hospitals would take more residents.
As already mentioned in this thread, funding is one aspect of a residency program but I do not see hospitals begging for more residency spots. In fact, we have seen several hospitals close, and others close their residency programs and remain open. What evidence do you have that the funding is the bottleneck? I believe this is a fatal flaw in your logic.
This to me is evidence that it is not that the 15,000+ non-matched Graduate medical students are unable to perform and are of the quality needed, but more an issue of the reliance on government funding creating a bottleneck on supply.
This doesn't make much sense. Let's pretend, for a minute, that we expand programs. It's possible that those unmatched candidates will fill into the new spots. It's also possible that programs will decide to remain unfilled if they feel the quality of the applicants is not acceptable. The two issues are unrelated, and you can't "prove" that the unmatched candidates are qualified because there is a lack of spots.
Also there is a US Medical Licensing Exam that determines if someone is qualified to practice medicine in the United States. So if someone
can pass the exam and there is a need for physicians why not allow more people into the field by allowing self-funding or NGO's or
charities or private entities to cover the residency costs instead of medicare?
The USMLE sets an absolute minimum bar over which one must jump to be considered for a residency position. This does not mean that everyone who passes it will be a good physician.
Medicare spends $15 billion+ a year on Graduate Medical Training covering over 90% of US Physicians. Another striking fact about
this is that less than half of US Physicians even accept medicare! So this program is subsidizing 90% of doctor's training, yet
less than half accept Government programs after? That doesn't sound like a very efficient market, nor does it sound fair to the
American people.
I have no idea where the sense that 50% of docs don't accept medicare. That's just simply wrong. A quick google suggests that maybe 10% of docs don't accept medicare. In any case, increasing the number of training spots won't fix that. Plus, if you live in a community where it's difficult to get seen with Medicare, those patients come to the academic center that always accepts Medicare -- which argues that funding should continue to flow to these programs.
A solution is that private hospitals in rural areas subsidize residency funding instead of medicare and then force the residents to sign 5 year post-residency contracts otherwise they have to pay the subsidy back. Similar to companies like Exxon that pay exec's $100,000+ MBA programs and if they leave within 5 years after that they have to pay the money back.
This has been suggested, and it is an interesting solution to consider. The "problem" is that in rural community hospitals, you're unlikely to see complex ill patients. You could probably learn how to take care of less sick patients that way. And, while we're at it, we could create purely outpatient residency programs also and teach people how to treat outpatients only. But currently the profession feels that physicians should be exposed to all phases of care and understand them / be comfortable with them. Does that matter? Does someone who knows they want to do primary care need to work in an ICU for 3 months? These are interesting questions, but have nothing to do with funding. Personally I think the current model is better than a community training model, but that's my bias.
But in our restricted system, we're like the taxicab union in New York in which there are only a certain number of government mandated medallions given out
annually. When there is a shadow inventory of providers that Uber and Lyft exploited.
Yes, except that driving a cab doesn't involve any specific skill set other that being able to drive a car. When you get in a cab, or Uber, or Lyft, you assume that the person driving actually knows how to drive. In medicine it needs to be the same -- if we give someone a medical license, we should be sure they know what they are doing.
Most hospitals around the country have a desire for a certain number of residency positions, that number is above the number of positions offered as they
rarely (unless they're a very well-funded teaching hospital) extend positions beyond those covered by Medicare subsidies in the form of direct and indirect
payments. There is currently shadow inventory of positions but the lack of funding is keeping those positions dormant.
Logically that means they have the resources to take in more residents, they have the desire to take in more residents,
but what is missing is the funding?
As mentioned already, I do not think that funding is holding back the number of spots. If I wanted more spots, my program would probably let me have them without any more funding. In fact, this happened recently with some prelim positions -- the institution decided they were necessary (for complicated, unrelated reasons) and so they were approved, with no funding.
I think the whole thing needs to free up and we need to double the number of physicians in this country as a way to provide more healthcare atlower costs for US consumers.
Undoubtedly physician income will probably drop 30% but in the bigger scheme of things its not that bad relative to those that wish to provide
healthcare and are not in it just because there is a shortage boosting their incomes.
Let's see how altruistic many of these physicians are when these programs take off and their income drops.
As I mentioned before, it's not clear that increasing the supply of physicians will decrease costs. I know that's what they teach in Econ 101, and it's probably true for widgets. You've argued before that there is lots of pent up demand for physicians -- if so, increasing supply won't decrease costs, it will just increase spending (although that might be OK if people are now getting care). As I've explained before, physician prices are not really market based (Medicare sets specific prices for visits, you can't charge anything else) and increasing the supply of medical resources often results in increased use and increased costs.
You should read the following:
http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/supply-sensitive-care/
Also, read this (somewhat different topic, but related):
The Cost Conundrum by Atul Gawande
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/06/01/the-cost-conundrum
The percentage of people accepted into residency programs is the lowest its ever been. So unless we as a population are stupider, the same people that would have
gotten a residency 30 years ago are not getting them today.
This is also not true.
"The percentage of people accepted into residency programs is the lowist it has ever been" -- this is not true. In 2012, 26.9% were unmatched. In 2016 it was 24.4% (NRMP Main Data PDF, Table 4, last row). So the match percentage has actually been increasing.
But, perhaps you meant that the absolute number of unmatched candidates was increasing. That's true -- 8400 vs 8600 over the same time period, although 200 people is just over 2% so it's hard to argue that this is a real problem.
In any case, even if the first half of your logic statement was true, the second half doesn't follow. The number of residency spots has slowly increased. The number of applicants has increased also. So it doesn't follow that "So unless we as a population are stupider, the same people that would have gotten a residency 30 years ago are not getting them today." More people are applying into more spots. Perhaps those new applicants are "stupider" than the prior applicants. Perhaps not.
Look, I get it that you've been squeezed out of the system. You haven't been able to get a spot, for whatever reason, and you've latched on to this idea that if only there was more funding, spots would open up for you. And I'm telling you that's probably not true.
In fact, let me be more clear: I do not think there will EVER be more funding for GME. I think there is some chance that we will see some funding rerouted to community based sites for training. It's possible that community sites will offer to train residents for less $$$, and then there would be a chance that there would be more slots available for the same dollars (although perhaps offset by some other programs shrinking if some funding is removed). I think it's more likely that Medicare, as it's finances crumble, will cut GME funding partially or completely. If you're a congressperson and your choices are to raise taxes, cut medicare benefits, or cut GME funding, which would you choose?
In any case, I assign you some homework. Read the two articles linked before posting further.