I know this is the question everyone hates answering on every SDN thread. From an income perspective, everyone in medicine will suffer to some degree, although no one can predict by how much.
I'm less curious in how much GI docs make, and actually more curious about the percentage breakdown of a private practice GI doc's salary. What percentage of their salary comes from screening colonoscopies? If (when?) reimbursement drops or when USPSTF guidelines change and don't recommend colonoscopies until 60 or something, how much of a hit will GI docs salary take?
I was thinking 30-40%, but that's based on nothing but perception (I'm an MS4, so I admittedly have little understanding of what goes on past residency). Again, while you can't predict how any specialty will reimburse in a decade or two, you can only really identify the ones that have a significant dependence on one aspect of their practice. In my uneducated opinion (only in medicine can you have done 7 years of training at top schools and still truly be 'uneducated'!), this list might include GI with colonoscopies, Urology with prostates, Rad Onc with radiation, etc.
Any thoughts would be appreciated. GI is just about the only specialty I can think of in Internal Medicine that would make me happy, so I plan on pursuing it regardless of income changes - but it's still something I'd like to be educated about.