procedures

[BobBarker]

The meat packing plants exist to supply the areas that he proposes shutting down. The rest of the country there are enough small meat lockers to supply clean cuts of meat. There won’t be any bologna/hot dogs or other chicken/beef/pork blend garbage available however.

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[SommeRiver]

Simplistic yet incorrect at the same time.

What about meat packing plants, as just 1 example?

Ill say it again: the pandemic would have been much worse had we not had these 3 months of crap. Nobody knows where we would have been. Nobody knows where we will be.

Your desire for pretending like there is no problem is well documented for all to see. It will also be very easy to see how foolish and naive you were.

Targeted shutdowns...NYC shuts down, and Des Moines stays open.

That covers your slaughterhouse example.

The massive federal response is going to hurt for a very long time, and rather than selectively intervene in hotspots like NY and NJ we just crushed the entire nation.

Individuals within the govt are seizing power under the guise of protection and safety, and the people just slowly acclimate to having less and less individual freedom.

Disagree? Go watch Garcetti's speeches. He should be dragged from his home by the people of LA and flogged.

 

[drusso]

Simplistic yet incorrect at the same time.

What about meat packing plants, as just 1 example?

Ill say it again: the pandemic would have been much worse had we not had these 3 months of crap. Nobody knows where we would have been. Nobody knows where we will be.

Your desire for pretending like there is no problem is well documented for all to see. It will also be very easy to see how foolish and naive you were.

The future is Sweden...

 

[pmrmd]

Because that population DIES, thats why.

Very true. That’s why it was/is right to isolate that population. I have a parent in an assisted living facility and it’s like a prison, and that’s fine. The rest of us don’t have to live that way.

 

[SSdoc33]

Very true. That’s why it was/is right to isolate that population. I have a parent in an assisted living facility and it’s like a prison, and that’s fine. The rest of us don’t have to live that way.

thats fine. i agree with that and florida did a good job with their elderly populations so far.
but quarantining nursing homes clearly isnt the whole scope of the problem

 

[SSdoc33]

The future is Sweden...

correct. and it should be. but the past shouldnt have been

 

[SSdoc33]

My statement was soooo hard to follow and confusing...

There are 30 and possibly up to 40 states that have been largely spared from significant COVID-19.

In the states hit the hardest, look at the locations of cases and they're all large metro areas.

The virus does not care about state boundaries, so take each major city that has been hit with COVID-19 and draw a circle around it that spans X miles in diameter and shut it down.

Let the 95% of the rest of our nation continue to thrive and work and earn money without having to push trillions of dollars of Monopoly money into the economy.

I think this is actually quite simple.

your rounding is a bit off. as are your estimates:

Iowa sees new daily high in coronavirus deaths

For the second time in three days, Iowa has recorded a daily high in deaths due to COVID-19. The Iowa …

www.thegazette.com

95/5 % is way off. you may be in BFE, and thats great, but unless you make everyone in BFE stay in BFE, and prevent anyone from outside of BFE from going to BFE, then your "plan" is pretty ridiculous.

as far as shutting down and re-opening, it really wasnt done on a national level. it was state and locally driven. i agree that the needs of south dakota and chicago are certainly different. but, here's the rub. most people live in or around cities. that is what is driving the high unemployment and economic pain. your idea to open up the country maybenefit you personally, but would do little for the economic health of the country in general.

here's a question for you: would you fly in a plane right now? eat inside a restaurant? go to a professional basketball game? im guessing that most, or a lot of us wouldnt. so even if things are opened up, it is not like things will be saved right away.
then there's schools. lots of parents right now are considering not sending their kids in next fall. if there is a local outbreak, do the schools shut down again? some kids go and some don't? and how do the parents work if the kids ar enot in school?

your view on the problem is really superficial and overly simplistic

 

[drusso]

correct. and it should be. but the past shouldnt have been

That makes no sense whatsoever. The USA needs to be humble and admit that its response was arrogant and wrong. Sweden was right.

 

[SommeRiver]

your rounding is a bit off. as are your estimates:

Iowa sees new daily high in coronavirus deaths

For the second time in three days, Iowa has recorded a daily high in deaths due to COVID-19. The Iowa …

www.thegazette.com

95/5 % is way off. you may be in BFE, and thats great, but unless you make everyone in BFE stay in BFE, and prevent anyone from outside of BFE from going to BFE, then your "plan" is pretty ridiculous.

as far as shutting down and re-opening, it really wasnt done on a national level. it was state and locally driven. i agree that the needs of south dakota and chicago are certainly different. but, here's the rub. most people live in or around cities. that is what is driving the high unemployment and economic pain. your idea to open up the country maybenefit you personally, but would do little for the economic health of the country in general.

here's a question for you: would you fly in a plane right now? eat inside a restaurant? go to a professional basketball game? im guessing that most, or a lot of us wouldnt. so even if things are opened up, it is not like things will be saved right away.
then there's schools. lots of parents right now are considering not sending their kids in next fall. if there is a local outbreak, do the schools shut down again? some kids go and some don't? and how do the parents work if the kids ar enot in school?

your view on the problem is really superficial and overly simplistic

Out of order...

1. To keep schools closed is criminal and cruel. Period. Not science. Not following data. Nothing but emotional decision making. To quote Beto - Dumb and weak. That demographic simply isn't at risk. They're not at risk, and before you mention this Kawasaki-like syndrome that is occurring in kids with multiple negative COVID-19 tests, those individuals being hurt make up a microscopic amount of injury relative to that of being kept home for another 3 months, 6 months, etc...Kids relying on school breakfast and lunch aren't getting that food. Abuse is occurring. No education is taking place. It is sad and unnecessary.

2. I've been in restaurants; I would fly right now; I would go to a basketball game. I'm 40 and I exercise 5 days a week. I get my HR > 85% a few days a week. No medical comorbidities. My mom is 74 and needs to stay home; my wife's parents should avoid those activities because they smoke. Not me however...

3. The 95% thing was a figure of speech...obviously...The point is that the hotspots of COVID-19 are major metro areas, and confined within those areas. Sure there are cases here and there but so what? Where there are high levels of morbidity, close it up. There have been zero cases in our practice, and we have 12 locations. I posted a week or two ago and said I'm doing CERTAIN injections and you tried to start some BS with me...Zero cases in our practice and we see 600 to 700 pts per day in our clinics...But we should shut down our entire business (we employ over 300 ppl), rely on the govt to keep us afloat, and while doing so look ourselves in the mirror and pretend we're making a rational decision. ZERO CASES IN 12 CLINICS.

4. Closing up being local and state vs national...Local responses have been driven by the frenzy in only a few hotspots, namely NY and NJ. That is the media stoking national fears based off old people dying in nursing homes in a few areas in the NE...Cuomo obviously took upon himself to go ahead and get rid of older ppl by shoveling them into situations that THEY ABSOLUTELY WOULDN'T SURVIVE. Have you seen the data on deaths occurring in NH vs outside NH? Those NH make up a massive percentage of those deaths...But you would say "shame" to me? Zero cases in our 12 clinics...

5. Iowa has 449 total deaths. Shut them down...Shut them down...They had 270 flu deaths in 2018. I wonder if the entire economy was shut down for that, considering those 270 ppl were probably dying anyways...

6. USA - 11/50 states don't even have 100 deaths. 25/50 have under 500 deaths. NY and NJ account for 41% of the total deaths, and if you do NY, NJ, Mass, Conn, Penn, and Maryland...Over 60% of all cases.

This is too annoying to debate on my phone. I don’t care...GFY...

 

[SommeRiver]

That makes no sense whatsoever. The USA needs to be humble and admit that its response was arrogant and wrong. Sweden was right.

Only difference is we're fat and gross. Too many ppl with diabetes and obesity.

 

[Tramadeezy]

Found the link

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

 

[hyperalgesia]

Interesting... I guess the people in nursing homes represent the extremely vulnerable outliers.

Definitely puts things in perspective. It's hard to argue for a lock down of healthy, working people with these numbers, at least in most areas.

 

[SSdoc33]

Out of order...

1. To keep schools closed is criminal and cruel. Period. Not science. Not following data. Nothing but emotional decision making. To quote Beto - Dumb and weak. That demographic simply isn't at risk. They're not at risk, and before you mention this Kawasaki-like syndrome that is occurring in kids with multiple negative COVID-19 tests, those individuals being hurt make up a microscopic amount of injury relative to that of being kept home for another 3 months, 6 months, etc...Kids relying on school breakfast and lunch aren't getting that food. Abuse is occurring. No education is taking place. It is sad and unnecessary.

2. I've been in restaurants; I would fly right now; I would go to a basketball game. I'm 40 and I exercise 5 days a week. I get my HR > 85% a few days a week. No medical comorbidities. My mom is 74 and needs to stay home; my wife's parents should avoid those activities because they smoke. Not me however...

3. The 95% thing was a figure of speech...obviously...The point is that the hotspots of COVID-19 are major metro areas, and confined within those areas. Sure there are cases here and there but so what? Where there are high levels of morbidity, close it up. There have been zero cases in our practice, and we have 12 locations. I posted a week or two ago and said I'm doing CERTAIN injections and you tried to start some BS with me...Zero cases in our practice and we see 600 to 700 pts per day in our clinics...But we should shut down our entire business (we employ over 300 ppl), rely on the govt to keep us afloat, and while doing so look ourselves in the mirror and pretend we're making a rational decision. ZERO CASES IN 12 CLINICS.

4. Closing up being local and state vs national...Local responses have been driven by the frenzy in only a few hotspots, namely NY and NJ. That is the media stoking national fears based off old people dying in nursing homes in a few areas in the NE...Cuomo obviously took upon himself to go ahead and get rid of older ppl by shoveling them into situations that THEY ABSOLUTELY WOULDN'T SURVIVE. Have you seen the data on deaths occurring in NH vs outside NH? Those NH make up a massive percentage of those deaths...But you would say "shame" to me? Zero cases in our 12 clinics...

5. Iowa has 449 total deaths. Shut them down...Shut them down...They had 270 flu deaths in 2018. I wonder if the entire economy was shut down for that, considering those 270 ppl were probably dying anyways...

6. USA - 11/50 states don't even have 100 deaths. 25/50 have under 500 deaths. NY and NJ account for 41% of the total deaths, and if you do NY, NJ, Mass, Conn, Penn, and Maryland...Over 60% of all cases.

This is too annoying to debate on my phone. I don’t care...GFY...

im going to assume GFY means Good For You.

for someone who doesnt care to debate the topic you put in a good 500 words with links on a phone.

i dont disagree with a lot of what you are saying. remember, the shut down was done primarily to limit the spread of the disease and to try to not overwhelm the hospitals

1. i agree that schools "should" open and kids are generally safe. but the kids may be vectors. kids live with grandparents, or those with pre-existing conditions. adults work in schools. teachers pack in to lounges and meetings, etc. kids ride in buses with 30 other kids 2 ways every day. lot of things to consider

2. you may be going to restaurants, but i can guarantee many of us are not. i would definitely not fly. if you choose to do those things, thats fine, but again you are interacting with patients, family, etc who you are then potentially exposing.

3. how many of your patients in rural georgia have had a covid-19 test? it is hard to get an idea of prevalence when you don't know the denominator. if you had been working straight through march and april, how many positives would you have had?

4. since when does texas listen to what NY does? the media is responsible for all of the sh@t that has happened? do you hear yourself? pretty ludicrous point. media may have hyped up things and got people more worried than they needed to be, but only up to a certain point. NY did not handle the nursing home patients well

5. take a look at iowa's curves. do they look like they are going in the right direction? you quote 449 total deaths as if this thing is over. in fact, there are several states where the numbers have continued to rise even as social distancing/etc is relaxed.
Coronavirus in Iowa: Tracking COVID-19 curve of cases, deaths

6. again, its not over. not by a long shot. i think we will be dealing with this until about this time next year, when i am hoping we will have a widespread vaccine available.


we are not sweden, but it is time to relax things a bit. where that line is drawn is where we differ. face masks, social distancing, limit large gatherings, etc should continue IMHO. this thing is a seesaw. if we do nothing, the numbers go up. if we do everything possible, the numbers go down. we have to find that middle, but it is clearly not easy to do.

 

[thiswonthurtabit]

That makes no sense whatsoever. The USA needs to be humble and admit that its response was arrogant and wrong. Sweden was right.

Sweden has 100 more deaths/million people than the US. I don't know if that makes them right.

 

[hyperalgesia]

Sweden has 100 more deaths/million people than the US. I don't know if that makes them right.

That's really not many - 1/10,000 more people.

 

[drusso]

im going to assume GFY means Good For You.

for someone who doesnt care to debate the topic you put in a good 500 words with links on a phone.

i dont disagree with a lot of what you are saying. remember, the shut down was done primarily to limit the spread of the disease and to try to not overwhelm the hospitals

1. i agree that schools "should" open and kids are generally safe. but the kids may be vectors. kids live with grandparents, or those with pre-existing conditions. adults work in schools. teachers pack in to lounges and meetings, etc. kids ride in buses with 30 other kids 2 ways every day. lot of things to consider

2. you may be going to restaurants, but i can guarantee many of us are not. i would definitely not fly. if you choose to do those things, thats fine, but again you are interacting with patients, family, etc who you are then potentially exposing.

3. how many of your patients in rural georgia have had a covid-19 test? it is hard to get an idea of prevalence when you don't know the denominator. if you had been working straight through march and april, how many positives would you have had?

4. since when does texas listen to what NY does? the media is responsible for all of the sh@t that has happened? do you hear yourself? pretty ludicrous point. media may have hyped up things and got people more worried than they needed to be, but only up to a certain point. NY did not handle the nursing home patients well

5. take a look at iowa's curves. do they look like they are going in the right direction? you quote 449 total deaths as if this thing is over. in fact, there are several states where the numbers have continued to rise even as social distancing/etc is relaxed.
Coronavirus in Iowa: Tracking COVID-19 curve of cases, deaths

6. again, its not over. not by a long shot. i think we will be dealing with this until about this time next year, when i am hoping we will have a widespread vaccine available.


we are not sweden, but it is time to relax things a bit. where that line is drawn is where we differ. face masks, social distancing, limit large gatherings, etc should continue IMHO. this thing is a seesaw. if we do nothing, the numbers go up. if we do everything possible, the numbers go down. we have to find that middle, but it is clearly not easy to do.

Did Our Coronavirus Shutdown Work? You Decide - Regenexx

Dr. Centeno looks at the data on whether our coronavirus shutdown worked by looking at the world's control arm in this experiemnt-Sweden.

regenexx.com

"The upshot? Using Sweden as the control arm of this great societal experiment, I am NOT seeing evidence that our shutdown worked any better than just telling people to social distance. Maybe things will trend differently over the summer, but if these two graphs keep pace with each other, then regulators and health officials MUST pay attention and use this data to drive what we do if this bug reemerges this winter. So far, based on the data at hand, the answer is not more shutdowns."

 

[SSdoc33]

Did Our Coronavirus Shutdown Work? You Decide - Regenexx

Dr. Centeno looks at the data on whether our coronavirus shutdown worked by looking at the world's control arm in this experiemnt-Sweden.

regenexx.com

"The upshot? Using Sweden as the control arm of this great societal experiment, I am NOT seeing evidence that our shutdown worked any better than just telling people to social distance. Maybe things will trend differently over the summer, but if these two graphs keep pace with each other, then regulators and health officials MUST pay attention and use this data to drive what we do if this bug reemerges this winter. So far, based on the data at hand, the answer is not more shutdowns."


View attachment 307621

FFS, Centeno is now an epidemiologist? can't he stick to being wrong about biologics?

 

[drusso]

FFS, Centeno is now an epidemiologist? can't he stick to being wrong about biologics?

What are your specific criticisms of his understanding of biologics or epidemiology?

 

[thiswonthurtabit]

That's really not many - 1/10,000 more people.

reducing the fraction doesn't really change the fact that an additional ~30000 people would be dead if we had a similar rate. Of course it is difficult to make comparisons as population characteristics are different in Sweden vs US so it is hard to say if we'd have a higher or lower number without implementing the measures we did. One thing that I really think people should remember is something Dr. Fauci said at the outset of this thing: we'll only know if we did enough if we get to the end and think we did too much. It is very easy to sit and critique in hind-site but imagine what the reaction would have been if we did nothing and millions died? I'd rather be in our position now than in that hypothetical (which no one could say wasn't possible at the time).

 

[drusso]

reducing the fraction doesn't really change the fact that an additional ~30000 people would be dead if we had a similar rate. Of course it is difficult to make comparisons as population characteristics are different in Sweden vs US so it is hard to say if we'd have a higher or lower number without implementing the measures we did. One thing that I really think people should remember is something Dr. Fauci said at the outset of this thing: we'll only know if we did enough if we get to the end and think we did too much. It is very easy to sit and critique in hind-site but imagine what the reaction would have been if we did nothing and millions died? I'd rather be in our position now than in that hypothetical (which no one could say wasn't possible at the time).

We will never know what socio-economic harms could have been averted by fewer restrictions. "Don't just do something; stand there."

 

[hyperalgesia]

reducing the fraction doesn't really change the fact that an additional ~30000 people would be dead if we had a similar rate. Of course it is difficult to make comparisons as population characteristics are different in Sweden vs US so it is hard to say if we'd have a higher or lower number without implementing the measures we did. One thing that I really think people should remember is something Dr. Fauci said at the outset of this thing: we'll only know if we did enough if we get to the end and think we did too much. It is very easy to sit and critique in hind-site but imagine what the reaction would have been if we did nothing and millions died? I'd rather be in our position now than in that hypothetical (which no one could say wasn't possible at the time).

We still don't know the long term effects. The people who were "saved" might catch the virus on the next wave. Sweden might have attained something closer to "herd immunity" that could serve them well.

 

[drusso]

We still don't know the long term effects. The people who were "saved" might catch the virus on the next wave. Sweden might have attained something closer to "herd immunity" that could serve them well.

There's no way to know how many lives were saved by lockdowns, but you just have to look around you to see all the deaths of independent businesses.

 

[thiswonthurtabit]

There's no way to know how many lives were saved by lockdowns, but you just have to look around you to see all the deaths of independent businesses.

It is easy to equate the loss of business with the loss of human life when you aren't losing loved ones and the only effect you are feeling is economic.

How would you feel if we chose to do nothing and one of those extra 30,000 deaths included your mother, father, sibling, wife or child? I can assure you that if you were losing loved ones you wouldn't give a damn about the economic impact and would be cursing the government for failing you.

 

[hyperalgesia]

It is easy to equate the loss of business with the loss of human life when you aren't losing loved ones and the only effect you are feeling is economic.

How would you feel if we chose to do nothing and one of those extra 30,000 deaths included your mother, father, sibling, wife or child? I can assure you that if you were losing loved ones you wouldn't give a damn about the economic impact and would be cursing the government for failing you.

If someone I loved died from the virus, I would NOT blame the government. I mean seriously, you would blame the govt for not closing businesses? If grandma dies of the flu, who thinks of the government?

OTOH, when the govt directly intervenes and makes it illegal to work, leading to desperation, that really is on them.

Also, major non-economic costs to disruption in economy.

‘A Year’s Worth of Suicide Attempts in the Last Four Weeks’: California Doctor Calls for End to Lockdown | National Review

“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc said.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[MikeMerk-MtS]

If someone I loved died from the virus, I would NOT blame the government. I mean seriously, you would blame the govt for not closing businesses? If grandma dies of the flu, who thinks of the government?

OTOH, when the govt directly intervenes and makes it illegal to work, leading to desperation, that really is on them.

Also, major non-economic costs to disruption in economy.

‘A Year’s Worth of Suicide Attempts in the Last Four Weeks’: California Doctor Calls for End to Lockdown | National Review

“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc said.

www.nationalreview.com

I believe he means blaming the government for opening up too soon thereby placing the cost of economics ahead of the cost of life. Your analogy with the flu isn't reasonable as the flu has never placed the government in this position so it would be like comparing apples to oranges. If you are trying to say that the government could be blamed for causing COVID (and the flu) then that is a different (albeit unreasonable) story.

Regarding the link you posted: that data is from a single physician who stated "we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks." I'm not saying that's not insignificant as any life lost is horrific, but just saying statistically that N=1 isn't good medicine (especially if we don't know his denominator).

To the original poster: I am sure you have your answer already as this post has been going on for over a month, but as a resident about to enter fellowship I can tell you that in my residency program it has been a gray area which, for better or worse, has been attending dependent.

 

[drusso]

It is easy to equate the loss of business with the loss of human life when you aren't losing loved ones and the only effect you are feeling is economic.

How would you feel if we chose to do nothing and one of those extra 30,000 deaths included your mother, father, sibling, wife or child? I can assure you that if you were losing loved ones you wouldn't give a damn about the economic impact and would be cursing the government for failing you.

My 86 year old Aunt died of COVID-pneumonitis in an assisted living/memory care center in New Jersey. Her death does nothing to bring back the 10,000's of independent businesses that were destroyed by our response to this pandemic. In my mind you can't equate the two.

 

[MikeMerk-MtS]

My 86 year old Aunt died of COVID-pneumonitis in an assisted living/memory care center in New Jersey. Her death does nothing to bring back the 10,000's of independent businesses that were destroyed by our response to this pandemic. In my mind you can't equate the two.

I'm very sorry to hear about your Aunt. But I believe he's talking about future deaths (preventing them)... not bringing back people from the dead.

 

[pmrmd]

It is easy to equate the loss of business with the loss of human life when you aren't losing loved ones and the only effect you are feeling is economic.

How would you feel if we chose to do nothing and one of those extra 30,000 deaths included your mother, father, sibling, wife or child? I can assure you that if you were losing loved ones you wouldn't give a damn about the economic impact and would be cursing the government for failing you.

How would you feel if your loved one was in a nursing home and government forced COVID patients there which increased the risk of death? Government actions can harm. People can still get sick with a complete government-ordered shutdown. Government failure is all around us with clear evidence—yet you are relying on government to keep you alive. Astounding.

 

[thiswonthurtabit]

How would you feel if your loved one was in a nursing home and government forced COVID patients there which increased the risk of death? Government actions can harm. People can still get sick with a complete government-ordered shutdown. Government failure is all around us with clear evidence—yet you are relying on government to keep you alive. Astounding.

I'd be pretty pissed off. Sure government can harm but what is the alternative? Leave it to the free market to decide who lives or dies? If I can't trust the government there's zero reason I should trust the general public who only care about themselves. People are inherently selfish, shortsighted, and, in general, stupid.

Multiple people seem to think Sweden has magically survived with no economic consequences and only a handful of extra people dying. This isn't the case.

Sweden Has Avoided a Coronavirus Lockdown. Its Economy Is Hurting Anyway.

Sweden’s decision not to impose a mandatory national lockdown has drawn global attention. But it turns out the situation here isn’t as different as it might first appear.

www.wsj.com

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

https://www.thelocal.se/20200518/swedens-lack-of-lockdown-wont-be-enough-to-save-the-economy-experts-warn

 

[drusso]

I'm very sorry to hear about your Aunt. But I believe he's talking about future deaths (preventing them)... not bringing back people from the dead.

No one can be certain that those future deaths would otherwise occur, but we can be certain about what has already happened.

 

[lobelsteve]

How would you feel if your loved one was in a nursing home and government forced COVID patients there which increased the risk of death? Government actions can harm. People can still get sick with a complete government-ordered shutdown. Government failure is all around us with clear evidence—yet you are relying on government to keep you alive. Astounding.

Loved one in a nursing home is a contradiction.

 

[thiswonthurtabit]

My 86 year old Aunt died of COVID-pneumonitis in an assisted living/memory care center in New Jersey. Her death does nothing to bring back the 10,000's of independent businesses that were destroyed by our response to this pandemic. In my mind you can't equate the two.

My condolences on your loss. And I agree that her death doesn't magically resurrect business. At 86 she was very high risk and may very well have been a victim regardless of any measures taken by the government and is largely irrelevant to the 'death of 10000s of independent businesses'.

 

[pmrmd]

I'd be pretty pissed off. Sure government can harm but what is the alternative? Leave it to the free market to decide who lives or dies? If I can't trust the government there's zero reason I should trust the general public who only care about themselves. People are inherently selfish, shortsighted, and, in general, stupid.

Blind faith in government is as just as bad as your opinion of "people". Elitism certainly fosters that kind of disdain for the public and misplaced faith in policy makers.

 

[hyperalgesia]

Loved one in a nursing home is a contradiction.

What if you love them but they are ultra high maintenance - maintenance that you can't provide? Asking for a friend... There must be hybrid options better than nursing homes though...

 

[lobelsteve]

Merica. I think this is part of being a family. Can always take your unloved ones out back and shoot 'em. But not in Georgia.

 

[thiswonthurtabit]

Blind faith in government is as just as bad as your opinion of "people". Elitism certainly fosters that kind of disdain for the public and misplaced faith in policy makers.

You failed to answer the question.

 

[SSdoc33]

My 86 year old Aunt died of COVID-pneumonitis in an assisted living/memory care center in New Jersey. Her death does nothing to bring back the 10,000's of independent businesses that were destroyed by our response to this pandemic. In my mind you can't equate the two.

my condolences. I am sorry to hear that.

but this was the dumbest sentence ever written on studentdoctor. and there have been MANY

 

[pmrmd]

You failed to answer the question.

The answer is you have to trust people to make rational decisions. Government can do somethings well sometimes. In general the CDC is a good agency but it couldn't make an adequate test for far too long. The federal governments public/private partnerships seem to be a good way to scale production and overall readiness. Complete reliance on government for your health in this pandemic though makes no sense since it fails all the time in non-emergent situations. But to quote your previous words--

How would you feel if we chose to do nothing and one of those extra 30,000 deaths included your mother, father, sibling, wife or child? I can assure you that if you were losing loved ones you wouldn't give a damn about the economic impact and would be cursing the government for failing you.

I am responsible for my family and if anyone would have become infected I wouldn't curse the government for it unless it was directly attributable to government order, like nursing home admissions. Government failed people in nursing homes and increased the mortality rate of the aged in certain areas. The effects of the shutdowns will hurt more people across all age groups than COVID has, especially in those age groups with a negligible mortality rate from the virus. Local management is better than top down fiat at the state level let alone federal. With that, let people decide for themselves how they are going to live their lives.

 

[hyperalgesia]

Governments should follow the same rule as physicians: "Do no harm". Not: "We have to do SOMETHING"

 

[clubdeac]

Thats where i went. Google searching cdc cfr estimation doesnt pull up those numbers. Not trying to troll you here, do you have a link?

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

 

[clubdeac]

And what about your estimate re: hydroxychloroquine?

Or your estimate about 'more deaths from broken hearts' or whatever BS that was

If you are going to play the "i told you so game" you cant be wrong more than you are right

HCQ works and the data shows it does

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

HCQ works and the data shows it does

No it doesn't

 

[drusso]

my condolences. I am sorry to hear that.

but this was the dumbest sentence ever written on studentdoctor. and there have been MANY

Ultimately, it doesn't matter that my Aunt died of COVID or not. She was old, had risk factors, and resided in a residential treatment facility. But, maybe some independent businesses or medical practices didn't have to go with her. If we had followed the Japanese and Swedish models and affirmatively chose to minimize socio-economic harms...she probably STILL would have died of COVID.

 

[hyperalgesia]

It's interesting how different people handle loss.

There was a NYT opinion column yesterday where the author was lamenting that her frail 96y/o mother, who died in a NH, was not "counted as a COVID victim". She was told her mother probably had covid but she was angry that the NH did not confirm the dx before her death so that it would "mean something".

She didn't blame Cuomo for allowing covid into the facility. She blamed trump for not implementing a "national testing policy" mandating that her 96 y/o mother get tested before she expired.

"Though my mother almost certainly died of Covid (she met the clinical case definition), her death was, as far as I can tell, not counted — and certainly will not be counted if the White House gets its way. Unfortunately, counting Covid deaths and cases has been turned into a battle of semantics, chance, bureaucracy, politics and immediate circumstance, rather than science."

 

[Ducttape]

Welp here ya go. The CDC caught up with my original estimate

(Remember, in March, the World Health Organization estimated a 3.4% fatality rate and Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the fatality rate of the coronavirus was about 2%.)

Fatality rate now per new CDC estimates:

0-49 years old: .05%
50-64 years old: .2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: .4%

According to the CDC’s current best estimate, the case fatality rate of the coronavirus is .4%. And that’s just among symptomatic cases, which, the CDC estimates, is 65% of all cases. This means the CDC estimates that the fatality rate for all infections across all age groups, symptomatic as well as asymptomatic, is approximately
.26%

the last point you make is supposition.

fwiw, this article:

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Abstract

We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered.

however, Johns Hopkins has case fatality of 5.9%
Italy at 14.3%.

There's no way to know how many lives were saved by lockdowns, but you just have to look around you to see all the deaths of independent businesses.

or you can look at the list of 100,000 people who have died. you should then postulate what the list would have looked like, based on initial government assessments of 1,000,000 people dead.

retrospect is perfect in all cases.

it seems easy to forget the initial government estimates. it is also easy to forget the purpose of lock down was to preserve scarce healthcare resources in all major metropolitan areas.

I'm not getting where you think Sweden did that well. their CFR is significantly higher than those of Denmark or other Scandinavian countries.

and they do not have the numbers to declare that they have reached herd immunity - they are far short.

a key difference is that they made the assessment that there were sufficient resources from the hospital setting to manage the volume if things went poorly. their socialist healthcare system actually was considered capable of accommodating the pandemic.

our government assessed that our healthcare system could not accommodate a pandemic and was not adequate.



finally, I find it hard to equilibrate economic hardship with mortality.

economic hardship should have been mitigated by government policy, except the fed government actions were weak and inefficient - on all fronts: with lack of early action, lack of travel restrictions from EUROPE, lack of PPE (due to poor resupply because of Tea Party blocking Obama's attempts to resupply the National Stockpile) and inadequate steps to procure more PPE after it became obvious there wasn't enough, and lack of testing.

if only they had a playbook to follow, or got a briefing from the prior admin.......... oh snap.

 

[pmrmd]

the last point you make is supposition.

economic hardship should have been mitigated by government policy, except the fed government actions were weak and inefficient - on all fronts: with lack of early action, lack of travel restrictions from EUROPE, lack of PPE (due to poor resupply because of Tea Party blocking Obama's attempts to resupply the National Stockpile) and inadequate steps to procure more PPE after it became obvious there wasn't enough, and lack of testing.

if only they had a playbook to follow, or got a briefing from the prior admin.......... oh snap.

Its an absurd assertion that federal government policy can mitigate complete shutdowns by governors. Unless you are trying to imply federal action that no Democrat supported would have eliminated the pandemic here. I'd call that sour grapes supposition.

 

[SSdoc33]

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Its an absurd assertion that federal government policy can mitigate complete shutdowns by governors. Unless you are trying to imply federal action that no Democrat supported would have eliminated the pandemic here. I'd call that sour grapes supposition.

that is not at all what he said

 

[pmrmd]

I quoted exactly what he said and it’s absurd.

 

[SSdoc33]

HCQ works and the data shows it does

this is a perfect example of getting your news from a single (highly questionable source).

1 hr 20 min agoFrance halts use of hydroxychloroquine on Covid-19 patients
From CNN's Pierre Bairin and Sarah Dean

A vendor displays hydroxychloroquine tablets at a pharmacy in Amritsar, India, in April. Narinder Nanu/AFP/Getty Images
French doctors have been banned from prescribing hydroxychloroquine to Covid-19 patients, the government ruled Wednesday.
The French Health Ministry revoked its authorization for the drug to be given to those with coronavirus, saying that the scientific data available at present does not provide sufficient “evidence of a benefit” to support its use.
Data considered by France’s High Council for Public Health found evidence to suggest a link between the use of hydroxychloroquine and “cardiac toxicity,” particularly when used in combination with the azithromycin – an antibiotic used to treat chest infection and other types of infection, according to a Health Ministry statement.
It added that the benefits and risks of this treatment may be reassessed in the future, as new data from clinical research emerges.
Some context: The announcement comes after the World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday said it had temporarily halted the study of hydroxychloroquine as a potential Covid-19 treatment in its Solidarity Trial, due to safety concerns.
The WHO’s decision was made after an observational study, published in the medical journal The Lancet on Friday, described how seriously ill Covid-19 patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were more likely to die or develop irregular heart rhythms.

"Our data has very convincingly shown that across the world in a real-world population that this drug combination, whichever way you slice it or dice it, does not show any evidence of benefit, and in fact is immutably showing a signal of grave harm," said Dr. Mandeep Mehra, the study’s lead author.

 

[SSdoc33]

I quoted exactly what he said and it’s absurd.

you quoted one little piece of the response


mit·i·gate

verb

1. make less severe, serious, or painful.

nobody is saying the government can just magically make this go away. but mitigating it is reasonable. i am not sure what you are arguing for. if it was that we shouldn't have shut anything down, then we would still be in a huge mess economically (like sweden for example)