i think that those who are familiar w/ private practice will jump back into private practice as the house of cards starts falling down, and administrators hand lower and lower salaries to docs because of the focus on "value-based" care/"population health", etc.
however, the reality is that those private docs are a dying breed. The majority of grads are focused on 1) paying down their college/med school debts 2) life-style (no call, no holidays, no working hard. This is what makes hospital employment so beautiful for them - they don't have to "buy-in" to a practice, they don't have to take out loans to cover pay roll, there is literally no financial risk to them - and because of the shortage of docs/specialists they can dictate terms for hospital employment that would have been unheard of before (ie: my hospital is trying to hire a neurologist - to sweeten the deal, there is NO inpatient/ER call requirement/expectation, NO requirement/expectation to cover their patients after hours/weekends). These grads are going from residency/fellowship into this hospital model - so they truly never knew the taste of freedom/autonomy/decision-making/business decisions, so they don't understand what the "old-timers" are griping about. They were used to seeing 8 patients per day as a fellow, so seeing 10 patients per day is a big improvement in their mind, and 12 patients per day is just plain "unsafe".
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My prediction though continues to be the same - we will see parallel medical systems
1) Hospital employed groups that are filled to the gills with Medicaid, Obamacare xchanges - poor customer service, poor productivity - with a revolving door of doctors and mid-levels who get disenchanted after 2-3 years. (WalMart model)
2) Private practice gorups that will primarily see private payers, better customer service, better productivity - with more consistency in the community since they have investments to safe-guard/build (Mercedes dealership)
I have been employed by a spine surgeon, I have been self-employed, I have been employed by a hospital - and can honestly say I couldn't be happier about transitioning back to private practice, and focusing on patient care/quality instead of corporatization of medicine.