On the outside looking in?

[Hematochezia]

So I figured I'd throw myself out there and ask the applicant world for advice. I am currently a third year resident and I will be applying for GI. I plan on working as a hospitalist as a year but I wondered if I really had a shot at this.

A quick overview of my application.
Pros:
publications: 2 general pubs, 2 case reports, 4 posters, 2 oral presentations
(mid ranged journals, ACG, ACP, etc)
top 10 ugrad, top 15 medical school - full rides to both
positive away rotation at a top 20 GI program
2 nationally known GI doc recs, 1 well known CC doc rec (few community GI folks willing to call on my behalf at programs)
AMG MD

Cons:
Very mediocre residency program (I did not think I would have an inkling of specializing when I came here)
Lukewarm relationship with the PD
Mediocre USMLE scores 200-220s
I'm a little on the old fart side
No chief position

I have absolutely NO IDEA what other applicants look like as my program is very heavy on the ID/endocrine/nephro side but has produced a scant amount of GI and cards folks. In addition, my few friends that went into IM from med school all went for cards.

Is this a competitive application or am I on the outside looking in because of my modest program?

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