I'm not even arguing the academic merits of the individual. I'm saying the process does not result in good outcomes in medicine. We place far too high an emphasis on pedigree when what we need in our leaders is largely orthogonal to what it takes to get into a T5 for most students. Please note I'm not advocating for board scores to be the end-all either. That would be worse.
The advantages of a T5 should ideally come from the better opportunity afforded by the school. More research, better mentorship, richer experiences, better residency preparation, access to world class minds and resources, etc... Prior experience can also influence decisions if someone did exceptional things pre-med school. However, the students who break into the T5 and then phone it in should be judged accordingly, not sent on a pathway to the highest positions in medicine despite completely average or below average performance and little evidence of greater initiative. If you find yourself at HMS or UCSF, fully immersed in the biotech/pharma capitals of the world and at the epicenter of American medicine, and you just hum along completing classes and doing a bit of chart review, imo you've already demonstrated that you aren't motivated to be a leader or innovator. A good physician, but not someone who is going to drive medicine forward. The pathways to change are non-linear, but we're literally teaching our future leaders to check boxes and coast on a name. It shows in the current stock of physician leaders, who are
The reason I picked this to critique is that we were given 0 information about you except
1) T5
2) Manuscripts not in IM
3) No ties or connections to the NE
Everything else was literally P/F. To us, you look basically identical to every other T5 student, so this boils down to "what are the chances I match at a specific top IM program as a T5 student?" Not sure why you'd think this is personal. You've made it literally impossible to make personal. Had you disclosed your non-trad status and experience beforehand, I don't think anyone would have blinked an eye. You'll likely be fine matching where you'd like.
As for your other points, law is a great example of why a field shouldn't take this approach, not an example to follow. You accusing me of being jealous as an MSTP student from a prestigious school is kind of silly. I didn't want a T5 because I was geographically limited and there were no T5s where I needed to be for my family. I now have 4 papers in Nature journals and am in the process of founding a company with a division chief at a T5. I'll go where I want if I go through with the match. "You're just jealous" is also not a great way to combat valid criticism.
To answer your primary question, I think your odds are quite good.
