Just in case anyone was curious, here's how the NAU application numbers game would be played based on the best information I have available from last year's cycle:
When I spoke to a lady at admissions a while back, she told me that last year they interviewed all the qualified (met the minimums) AZ residents, which was ~140 students. They also interviewed close to the same number of OOS applicants (~144 based on a previous thread) but the average stats were of course much higher for the OOS interviewees (IIRC in that thread from last cycle someone claimed the average GPA for OOS interviewees was >3.7).
PTCAS also claims that NAU's class is 67% AZ residents and 33% OOS residents. Don't know how accurate that is, as PTCAS's stats are generally outdated. Nevertheless, this is how things would have broken down last cycle based on the stats on NAU's website and the other numbers I have mentioned:
1235 total applications submitted
773 qualified applicants (62.59%)
We now make a (admittedly bogus) assumption that there is an equal likelihood of an AZ applicant and an OOS applicant having submitted an application despite being unqualified, and we arrive at the following:
228 AZ applicants *.6259 = ~143 qualified AZ applicants (seems consistent with what I was told on the phone)
1007 OOS applicants *.6259 = ~630 qualified OOS applicants
We also assume that the class was ultimately made up of:
85 seats * .67 = 57 AZ residents, and
85 seats *.33 = 28 OOS residents
The matriculation rate for NAU has historically been ~96% based on a (somewhat outdated) brochure I saw. So let's assume they sent out 89 acceptances to fill 85 seats. We can therefore increase the above numbers to 59 accepted AZ residents and 30 accepted OOS applicants, once again based on these (admittedly bogus) assumptions.
Therefore, if everything were done strictly by randomly drawing names from a hat:
Qualified AZ applicants are assumed to have a 100% chance of being interviewed, and would then have a 41.26% chance of acceptance (59/143 = .4126)
Qualifed OOS applicants have a 22.86% chance of being interviewed (144/630 = .2286) and interviewed applicants then have a 20.83% chance of acceptance (30/144 = .4126). Qualified OOS applicants therefore have an overall chance of admission of 4.76% (.2286*.2083 = .0476).
While there are obviously several key assumptions being made here, I image the final likelihood of being accepted once granted an interview that I have come up with is probably within a few percentage points of the real number. Also, the class size may increase this year slightly (I seem to remember seeing the number 88 at some point).
So figure your chances are probably plus or minus a couple percent of what I have claimed in the bolded portion,
if everything were just a random drawing. YMMV greatly based on your stats, obviously. Where you fall on the statistical bell-curve of in-state or OOS rankings will determine how much better or worse your chances are compared to these percentages.
This will either calm your nerves or make you more anxious than ever. Interview invites should be coming out in the next few days.
Dang...well their final matriculation rate of the people the send acceptances out is pretty low (like ~40%), so if that is any indication then there is probably still hope for you to sneak in there for an interview in Jan. or Feb.
