Lehman falls, merrill sold, aig has problems

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scrubswannabe

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so basically I know I know it's all because of the subprime mortgage crisis? But can someone please simply explain to me why all this is happening and what the subprime mortgage crisis is. I've tried googling - I just don't get it. And from what I understand all these banks did something they should not have done which is help give mortgages to people that wouldn't be able to pay them? Then we shouldn't be surprised about what's been going on. Someone help me add some perspective on it. I'm also trying to understand it so I know how one would trade in this situation. BOA bought Merrill but BOA's stock is down like 19 percent. Would you expect that to go up in the future? I think I would, but I don't have much experience. Thanks.

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This is a good example of why it is folly for a busy professional to buy individual stocks. Individual stocks can and do go to zero all the time. Diversifiable risk is non-compensated risk. If you were investing in a broad-based mutual fund you would have lost a little money yesterday, but gained some of it back today. You certainly wouldn't be walking into your brokerage and shooting the vice presidents like that guy in Florida yesterday who got a margin call he couldn't cover.
 
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1. Despite the one lesson of the Great Depression that everyone learns in High School, that leverage is really bad, investment banks and others had gotten greedy and employed massive amounts of leverage to make lots of money. (Google "leverage" if you don't know what it is.) It was actually a rational decision, because in our system, if you make lots of money with leverage you get huge bonuses, which you can keep when the immense risk you take on combined with small unpredictable market fluctuations inevitably leads to bankrupcy. Other idiots assume that models based on prior market data will predict the future and that they are immune to such failures. Either way, everyone's borrowing much more money than they have as collateral and making stupid investments.

2. One especially stupid investment came about when Bubbles Greenspan lowered interest rates to historically low levels. (I can't complain too much because he also gave me student loans locked in below the rate of inflation - free money!) This encouraged people to buy real estate while mortage rates were at historical once-in-a-lifetime levels. Increased demand for real estate leads to increased pricing, leading to a bubble with a stupid real-estate-can-never-decline-because-it-is-something-"real" mentality. Everyone assumes that land and houses have a magical power to make everyone rich without putting in any work or otherwise creating anything of value. Banks are willing to accept overvalued homes as collateral for massive loans made out to people with no realistic way to pay them back. Exotic loans like ARMs are also made available to create the illusion of affordability.

3. Banks and credit rating agencies decide that risk can be reduced by chopping up different people's loans and putting them together into mortage securities, missing the fact that the performance of one's person's loan might have some correlation with his neighbor, given that they are subject to the same socioeconomic factors within the same housing bubble. The value of things goes up merely by redistributing them! Another way to get rich without doing any work! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy this crap from the other investment banks and sell them to foreign investors, who buy it because, although the US government has never said they would, they assume the US government will bail them out if things go badly.

4. Things go badly as the bubble bursts and real estate values return to rational levels, destroying the fake collateral that backed up the now worthless loans. Many people can't pay their loans, and others have no reason to because their house is worth less than the money they owe on their mortgages. Because of massive leverage, Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros are screwed. Likely many others as well. The US government bails out the foreign investors who bought the bonds from Fannie and Freddie. All the money that was made without doing any work? Turns out that money will come from US taxpayers.
 
1. Despite the one lesson of the Great Depression that everyone learns in High School, that leverage is really bad, investment banks and others had gotten greedy and employed massive amounts of leverage to make lots of money. (Google "leverage" if you don't know what it is.) It was actually a rational decision, because in our system, if you make lots of money with leverage you get huge bonuses, which you can keep when the immense risk you take on combined with small unpredictable market fluctuations inevitably leads to bankrupcy. Other idiots assume that models based on prior market data will predict the future and that they are immune to such failures. Either way, everyone's borrowing much more money than they have as collateral and making stupid investments.

2. One especially stupid investment came about when Bubbles Greenspan lowered interest rates to historically low levels. (I can't complain too much because he also gave me student loans locked in below the rate of inflation - free money!) This encouraged people to buy real estate while mortage rates were at historical once-in-a-lifetime levels. Increased demand for real estate leads to increased pricing, leading to a bubble with a stupid real-estate-can-never-decline-because-it-is-something-"real" mentality. Everyone assumes that land and houses have a magical power to make everyone rich without putting in any work or otherwise creating anything of value. Banks are willing to accept overvalued homes as collateral for massive loans made out to people with no realistic way to pay them back. Exotic loans like ARMs are also made available to create the illusion of affordability.

3. Banks and credit rating agencies decide that risk can be reduced by chopping up different people's loans and putting them together into mortage securities, missing the fact that the performance of one's person's loan might have some correlation with his neighbor, given that they are subject to the same socioeconomic factors within the same housing bubble. The value of things goes up merely by redistributing them! Another way to get rich without doing any work! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy this crap from the other investment banks and sell them to foreign investors, who buy it because, although the US government has never said they would, they assume the US government will bail them out if things go badly.

4. Things go badly as the bubble bursts and real estate values return to rational levels, destroying the fake collateral that backed up the now worthless loans. Many people can't pay their loans, and others have no reason to because their house is worth less than the money they owe on their mortgages. Because of massive leverage, Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros are screwed. Likely many others as well. The US government bails out the foreign investors who bought the bonds from Fannie and Freddie. All the money that was made without doing any work? Turns out that money will come from US taxpayers.

nice summary hoss. this one gets my official seal of approval.
 
don't buy stocks until dow is below 9000. coming in 2009 to a stock market near you.

buy stuff with real value - oil, small businesses like mcdonald's franchises etc.

not that I know anything, but I'd probably agree. i think we are gonna take a huge hit eventually. the financials took the plunge. next will be the general populace.
 
After all the new regulations are passed for investment banks and hedge funds, I wonder how attractive an i-banking career will be to college kids. Are we gonna see an uptick in medical school applications?
 
Yep,
probably...
usually when the economy is bad, applications to medical school (and other graduate programs) increase.
 
that is gonna be bad for all of us in med school already :(

Not really. There's already a physician shortage that's expected to keep growing and there's not a lot of growth in residency or medical school spots, so increased applications would just make it more competitive for the applicants, not those already in or graduated from medical school.

I do find it hilarious-- people were talking about how I and other medical school aspirants should be looking at finance for a better lifestyle and more money just a year or two ago! They thought we were the chumps. Just goes to show how unpredictable life is; do things for the right reasons and you'll come out ahead.
 
that is gonna be bad for all of us in med school already :(

too many people playing the same "trade" - maybe this is a good time to start your own bank or insurance company instead hahaha

I'm not really sure that's going to be a good idea either. The banking + financial + investment industries are going through massive consolidation right now. That's going to make it harder for the little guys to compete or attract business. The "golden era" for banking is probably over for a while. Over the last 5-6 years (2002-mid 07), these companies used massive leverage on bets that would pay out 95-99% of the time. Now that massive leverage is having much more ordinary results, hence the problems we're having.

I can't really say medicine will be all that great going forward either. Who knows what kind of changes to healthcare we can expect with the next administration. Most Americans are crying about wanting a universal health care, because that's something they see before their very eyes (in terms of cost etc), but they have no clue to how badly Wall St. has been ass-raping this country. 99% of people (outside of the financial fields) have NO idea what the hell is going on right now. Everyone just keeps assuming this is part of the whole "mortgage crisis" when its due to far more then just that.
 
so basically I know I know it's all because of the subprime mortgage crisis? But can someone please simply explain to me why all this is happening .

Greed. I dont think there is much more of an explanation than that.
 
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