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clubdeac

clubdeac

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Figured there'd be a lot more chatter on this forum considering how the stock market has crashed in the last two weeks. I've got a pile of cash waiting for an opportunity. My investor says now is the time to buy while the market is low. Question is, will the market continue to drop or have we hit the bottom. Curious what others are doing with their investments right now... other than crying
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Much bigger problems at hand. Stock market is the least of them. Banking system has run out of balance sheet capacity. How will Treasury purchases and other USD assets be financed? Fed must step up and be world's central bank or else the music stops.

I believe we are witnessing a Orlov style collapse of the US.
srs1.jpg
 
Maybe today is rock bottom. Or is it tomorrow? Actually maybe the stock market will continue to drop for the next 6 months.

Timing the market is a fool's errand. I plan on doing what my plan always is; to dollar-cost average each month and buy into the market, regardless of what it is doing. I will readjust my asset allocation to my predetermined plan. In 30 years the difference between investing a lump sum now and in 6 months will be negligible no matter the outcome.
 
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In real terms the Dow and S&P will both lose a digit.
 
clubdeac said:
Figured there'd be a lot more chatter on this forum considering how the stock market has crashed in the last two weeks. I've got a pile of cash waiting for an opportunity. My investor says now is the time to buy while the market is low. Question is, will the market continue to drop or have we hit the bottom. Curious what others are doing with their investments right now... other than crying
Click to expand...

I suspect that 10 years from now you would not regret any dollars invested today. However from a psychology perspective I assume the market will not bottom until we reach an inflection point in the fear/panic of this pandemic. I would be surprised if the market was higher in a month than it is today.
 
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clubdeac said:
Figured there'd be a lot more chatter on this forum considering how the stock market has crashed in the last two weeks. I've got a pile of cash waiting for an opportunity. My investor says now is the time to buy while the market is low. Question is, will the market continue to drop or have we hit the bottom. Curious what others are doing with their investments right now... other than crying
Click to expand...

"the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" -John Maynard Keynes

I have no idea if this is the bottom or if we are less than halfway there, but don't bet anything you can't afford to lose
 
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Mman said:
I suspect that 10 years from now you would not regret any dollars invested today. However from a psychology perspective I assume the market will not bottom until we reach an inflection point in the fear/panic of this pandemic. I would be surprised if the market was higher in a month than it is today.
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Totally agree. If you are retiring in 25 years, why not have a position in your portfolio of positions purchased at this time? There is about a 100% positive likelihood that if you buy now in 25 years this money today will be substantially higher in value. The stock market normally doubles every 8-9 years more or less. But now you are getting in at a 30% discount.

It's an easy decision to buy for the long term now.

Absolutely NOT an easy decision if you plan on selling that stock in 1 year.
 
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They don't know what they are doing. This is not working.

Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations
March 17, 2020
In accordance with the most recent FOMC directive, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct additional overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operations for same-day settlement each afternoon for the remainder of this week from 1:30 PM ET to 1:45 PM ET. These repo operations will be conducted for an aggregate offered amount of $500 billion. Additionally, the aggregate offered amount for the overnight repo operations conducted each morning for the remainder of this week will increase to $500 billion. All other previously planned repo operations will be conducted as scheduled.
This action is taken to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to support the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.
 
Mman said:
I suspect that 10 years from now you would not regret any dollars invested today. However from a psychology perspective I assume the market will not bottom until we reach an inflection point in the fear/panic of this pandemic. I would be surprised if the market was higher in a month than it is today.
Click to expand...


Are you familiar with Chris Cole's The Hawk and the Serpent?

General rule of thumb is that secular bears are 1/3 the preceding secular bull. Some measure this bull as starting in 1974. I'll let you do the rest of the math if the start of this secular bear was Feb 2018 w/ the VIX implosion.
 
I'm going to do what I've been doing before -- keep my 401k contributions the same and contribute to my brokerage account each paycheck.

You might be buying at a discount or you might catch a falling knife, impossible to know.

Another thing to keep in mind is are you at risk of losing your income during this crisis? If so, you might be better off saving in cash to brace for hard times.
 
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Crixus said:
Are you familiar with Chris Cole's The Hawk and the Serpent?

General rule of thumb is that secular bears are 1/3 the preceding secular bull. Some measure this bull as starting in 1974. I'll let you do the rest of the math if the start of this secular bear was Feb 2018 w/ the VIX implosion.
Click to expand...

that's not really how it works
 
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clubdeac said:
Figured there'd be a lot more chatter on this forum considering how the stock market has crashed in the last two weeks. I've got a pile of cash waiting for an opportunity. My investor says now is the time to buy while the market is low. Question is, will the market continue to drop or have we hit the bottom. Curious what others are doing with their investments right now... other than crying
Click to expand...

Buy today and you're getting a cool 35% discount (compared to buying in last month). Trying to time the bottom is an exercise in futility.
 
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I’m buying S&P 500 index funds. My goal is to invest $1000 per month. But I am able to buy partial shares and without a transaction fee, so I’m buying $50/day to get a good cost average.
 
Dantrolene FC said:
I’m buying S&P 500 index funds. My goal is to invest $1000 per month. But I am able to buy partial shares and without a transaction fee, so I’m buying $50/day to get a good cost average.
Click to expand...

That may get messy come tax season
 
CliveStaples said:
Maybe today is rock bottom. Or is it tomorrow? Actually maybe the stock market will continue to drop for the next 6 months.

Timing the market is a fool's errand. I plan on doing what my plan always is; to dollar-cost average each month and buy into the market, regardless of what it is doing. I will readjust my asset allocation to my predetermined plan. In 30 years the difference between investing a lump sum now and in 6 months will be negligible no matter the outcome.
Click to expand...

The difference in investing a lump sum at or near market bottoms is substantial compared to dollar cost. Yes, you can't intentionally time the bottom of a bear market, but your returns over time for investments at/near bottom are magnitudes higher than anywhere else.

If you have the money, discipline, fortitude, and time frame, it is in your advantage to buy at larger percentages during market downturns.
 
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Trogghunter said:
The difference in investing a lump sum at or near market bottoms is substantial compared to dollar cost. Yes, you can't intentionally time the bottom of a bear market, but your returns over time for investments at/near bottom are magnitudes higher than anywhere else.

If you have the money, discipline, fortitude, and time frame, it is in your advantage to buy at larger percentages during market downturns.
Click to expand...

Disagree. For a laymen the most you should do is hold a percentage of your portfolio in cash (like 10% for example) and rebalance during a down turn imo.
 
Trogghunter said:
The difference in investing a lump sum at or near market bottoms is substantial compared to dollar cost. Yes, you can't intentionally time the bottom of a bear market, but your returns over time for investments at/near bottom are magnitudes higher than anywhere else.

If you have the money, discipline, fortitude, and time frame, it is in your advantage to buy at larger percentages during market downturns.
Click to expand...

Disagree. Take the bear market of 1987 for instance. Let's say you invested your lump sum at the WORST possible time. The peak s&p500 value was 330 or so. It dropped precipitously after that to a rough nadir of 240. 30 years later and it's worth 1550. The difference between lump summing or dollar cost averaging would have been negligible during this time. You "buy more" by selling some of your bond allocation in a market downturn to reinvest in equities to get you back to your asset allocation goal. I do not think it's true that returns over a long time horizon at the bottom of a bear market are going to be significantly different than even the PEAK of the bull that came before it.
 
CliveStaples said:
Disagree. Take the bear market of 1987 for instance. Let's say you invested your lump sum at the WORST possible time. The peak s&p500 value was 330 or so. It dropped precipitously after that to a rough nadir of 240. 30 years later and it's worth 1550. The difference between lump summing or dollar cost averaging would have been negligible during this time. You "buy more" by selling some of your bond allocation in a market downturn to reinvest in equities to get you back to your asset allocation goal. I do not think it's true that returns over a long time horizon at the bottom of a bear market are going to be significantly different than even the PEAK of the bull that came before it.
Click to expand...

If you had invested your lump sum on the Friday before black Monday, you'd have returned on your investment by 1990 at face value, sooner if you include capital gains and dividends. If you let that money ride, you'd be doing well. If you had invested a lump sum in 2007 then you'd have returned on your investment in 2013....ouch. IF you had bought a lot of equities on the Tuesday after black Monday 1987(market still dropped a lot after that) or in 2008 especially 2009, you'd be doing very, very well. My point was that in a bear market, start putting money to work, as long as you know your timeline, your risk tolerance, and MOST IMPORTANTLY your personal financial situation is in order. That's all I was saying.
 
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dollar cost averaging works for someone that is looking for a simple approach and is financially stable enough to continue steadfast to that strategy. Now is when a lot of stocks are much cheaper which overall offsets when it was purchased at a higher amount. If your time line to retirement is 10-20 years out you have plenty of time to recover and rebound forward. Im not changing my strategy all that much. Time in the market not timing of the market for me.
 
So does anyone on here expect more substantial falls in the market over the next 3-6 months? Substantial could be defined as another 10% drop from today’s levels (Friday close DJI is ~24,200).

I’m waiting and waiting for it to go lower...and as much as pundits write that it will, it just hasn’t happened. I’m less convinced now that we will even see the DJI go below 22,000 in the next 12 months.

All the bad earnings reports that are going to come out in the next month? The market won’t budge a bit. It’s already been discounted.

What do you guys think?
 
Its a total crapshoot, I don't understand in the least how it is going up with the crazy unemployment numbers that are coming out. If I had to guess, Id say a drop to 15k at some point. I think this is the calm before the storm personally. But, who knows, I also thought people would come to the ED in droves for BS and volumes are down across the country.
 
thegenius said:
So does anyone on here expect more substantial falls in the market over the next 3-6 months? Substantial could be defined as another 10% drop from today’s levels (Friday close DJI is ~24,200).

I’m waiting and waiting for it to go lower...and as much as pundits write that it will, it just hasn’t happened. I’m less convinced now that we will even see the DJI go below 22,000 in the next 12 months.

All the bad earnings reports that are going to come out in the next month? The market won’t budge a bit. It’s already been discounted.

What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

predicting whether it will go up or down short term is a 50/50 proposition and you should not let those predictions impact your investing. Worry about the long term.
 
The stock market is being artificially inflated with unprecedented Fed intervention with QE etc. There likely will be some sort of pullback once economy is mostly up and running and investors can no longer discount earnings, I think Q2 earnings this will happen. But waiting for market to crash again or re-test lows means you've likely missed a tremendous opportunity already given the significant bounce from March lows. Invest in long term stocks that have solid balance sheets and fundamentals. Some safe index funds should also be invested in. Don't try and time the market, that's not wise investing. Take starter positions and buy on dips as needed. There are many over-valued stocks at this time, but many that continue to be under-valued given uncertainty in the market. invest now and if market goes to all time highs, you win. If it retest lows or crashes, increase position and over the years watch as it bounces. This really will be a generational opportunity to invest much like 2008 was. Those with liquid capital and wise investing will be rewarded extremely handsomely, and many already have been. Good luck to all physician investors.
 
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Anyone interested in starting in trading, and would like to try out Robinhood?
 
While not exactly what this thread is about, I have to share...

Yesterday, I got a sweet deal on a used Chevy Suburban. The owner has been furloughed and was ready to sell his extra car for some cash. (I think he only used it to pull his fishing boat.)
 
I made coin on Boeing, Starbucks, Tesla the last 2 months. You need to take risks and get out once you’re up. Always use your stable professional revenue when the markets are down and hysterical. Only happens a few times in a lifetime ...
 
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Yeah, as long as things dont tank, I think that anyone who took advantage of the volatility in March/April and even May has made some straight up ca$h. Like dayum, finger lickin' good tendies. The past 2yrs have presented 3 excellent investment opportunities, the flash crash in late 2018/2019 was a 20% selloff, the healthcare selloff in mid 2019 and now this.
 
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Trogghunter said:
Yeah, as long as things dont tank, I think that anyone who took advantage of the volatility in March/April and even May has made some straight up ca$h. Like dayum, finger lickin' good tendies. The past 2yrs have presented 3 excellent investment opportunities, the flash crash in late 2018/2019 was a 20% selloff, the healthcare selloff in mid 2019 and now this.
Click to expand...
I'm a complete newb so I downloaded robinhood on March 20. Have gained 80% on my initial investment in that span just investing in random stocks. An experienced trader could have made way more than that.
 
clubdeac said:
Figured there'd be a lot more chatter on this forum considering how the stock market has crashed in the last two weeks. I've got a pile of cash waiting for an opportunity. My investor says now is the time to buy while the market is low. Question is, will the market continue to drop or have we hit the bottom. Curious what others are doing with their investments right now... other than crying
Click to expand...
i spoke a few stocks every other day until i ran out of money to invest.
 
Dr. Death said:
I'm a complete newb so I downloaded robinhood on March 20. Have gained 80% on my initial investment in that span just investing in random stocks. An experienced trader could have made way more than that.
Click to expand...
Experienced investors largely missed the March opportunity because experience told them to wait for a 60% correction for the border indexes, which didn't occur, though it did for some sectors that still haven't recovered. Some traders made a killing with the volatility, some lost big. In this instance, luck and inexperience seemed to have paid off for many retail investors. I was buying frantically in March/April until I was despondent and had nearly my entire lifes savings in equities. It was very stressful, but I'm up >60% across my whole portfolio and I attribute that to sheer luck and disregard of fundamentals.
 
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Kardio said:
Buy today and you're getting a cool 35% discount (compared to buying in last month). Trying to time the bottom is an exercise in futility.
Click to expand...

Just dropping in for my victory lap.
S&P500 Close Mar 23: 2,237
S&P500 Close Jul 20: 3,251

+45%
 
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