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I just graduated and will be taking two gap years before MD/PhD programs (applying at the end of the first gap year). I have experience in one lab during undergrad (last 2.5 years) but wanted to move elsewhere for my gap years for personal/professional reasons. Right now, I have the option of choosing between two labs. One is the lab of a very, very big PI in one of my two fields of interest: they have won several major career awards (on the level of MacArthur, Japan Prize, etc.) and will most likely win several more as they approach retirement. I would almost never interact with this PI but instead be paired with a postdoc who I would work very closely with (understandable). I would probably get some sort of publication out of this but most likely as some sort of middle author. Overall, I would be straying from my current work to start something new but much of this work would not be so independent. For what it's worth, this lab is also at one of my top choice programs.
The other option is a great but much smaller lab in the other of my two fields of interest. The PI seems really great and would work with me on a project: they have had quite a bit of success in the last ~10 years but not necessarily at the stage of their career as the other lab. Admittedly, I am much more excited by the work done in this lab (the other lab has great work, just not as great). Additionally, the past technicians who have been there have had some level of independence and have had opportunity to publish both as co-authors and first authors. Here, I would have more of an opportunity to show independent productivity and the work lines up much more closely with what I hope to study during my PhD. This lab is also at one of my top choice programs (perhaps not as much of a top choice as the other institution).
For reference, I hope to get a good LoR from my current lab, I have one middle author publication now, and hope to get one or two more from my current work. I guess my question comes down to whether I should go for a good fit and really big lab or great fit and not as big lab. Does it make that much of a difference in MD/PhD admissions? Thanks!
Congratulations, this is a good problem to have! But here's the question, which laboratory would you be most productive in? It's better to be productive than famous at this stage is my usual advice. The other piece of advice would be the group that would be the firmest advocate into MD/PhD studies, which can be either (some smaller labs have very serious connections as feeder labs or as collaborative ones).
You might want to ask some lab members about the laboratory dynamics before committing either way. Also, it is said (and I agree to some extent) that there is a finite amount of credit in a functional laboratory. If one person sucks it all, what's in it for you?