For anyone still delusional into thinking emergency medicine has a future

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Annals of emergency medicine article

Beating a dead horse, but lots of data following some assumptions.

Conclusion: we are basically screwed.

If you're a med student and 4-5 years from practicing, take a long and hard look at the data. Don't be delusional thinking that this is just SDN bu***s*it.

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Annals of emergency medicine article

Beating a dead horse, but lots of data following some assumptions.

Conclusion: we are basically screwed.

If you're a med student and 4-5 years from practicing, take a long and hard look at the data. Don't be delusional thinking that this is just SDN bu***s*it.

Besides supporting each other literally the most important thing this board can do is convince students that going to into EM is a horrible decision.
 
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Yeah my bro who is an M4 decided against EM he will do Family Medicine and will easily be able to get a job in LA
 
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Yeah my bro who is an M4 decided against EM he will do Family Medicine and will easily be able to get a job in LA

Smart move.

I'm coming from the hospitalist side and have to consider a switch to primary care because our market might be heading into the crapper too. Least I have the option to switch, I guess...

(guess there's also Nephro and perhaps ID. But I would rather drink C Dif stools than do Endo.)

Odds are he'll make just as much money too.

Insane to me that anyone would go into this field. Literally all the positives about it have evaporated.

Medical schools protect students from the crappy parts of EM while surrounding them with the crappiness of IM and Surgery. Medical students never realize they were tricked; they'll continue to obsess over EM no matter how bad it gets.
 
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Smart move.

I'm coming from the hospitalist side and have to consider a switch to primary care because our market might be heading into the crapper too. Least I have the option to switch, I guess...

(guess there's also Nephro and perhaps ID. But I would rather drink C Dif stools than do Endo.)



Medical schools protect students from the crappy parts of EM while surrounding them with the crappiness of IM and Surgery. Medical students never realize this; they'll continue to obsess over EM no matter how bad it gets.

Maybe, but to quote Agent Mulder, the truth is out there. But it will be tough to battle the medical educational complex, who always need more grist for the mill.
 
(guess there's also Nephro and perhaps ID. But I would rather drink C Dif stools than do Endo.)

Endo and Rheum....

Seriously, those are like the "black magic" fields of medicine. Its all arcane and weird in endo and rheum. Labs don't mean what you think they mean. Things are backwards and upside-down.

They... they scare me.
 
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I dunno. We make way more than them... at least for now.

The difference is getting pretty small.

If my wife saw roughly 22 a day, based on Rvus she's looking at 275k, working 36 hours a week, weekends and holidays off, plus 4 weeks paid vacation. Becomes 6 weeks after a few years in practice. Can even have a day or so of virtual visits scheduled from home.

We don't have paid vacation in our line, we have to work for every hour. The average ER doctor makes 360-370k ish. That 100k difference might erode as our market worsens over time. Family medicine on the other hand is a hotly recruited specialty. If we end up at 300k after 5-8 years, then that's with nights, no weekends off, without paid federal holidays off, and without paid leave. Accounting for 10 federal holidays and 4 weeks of paid time off, 275k is roughly equivalent to our 300-315k.
 
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Endo and Rheum....

Seriously, those are like the "black magic" fields of medicine. Its all arcane and weird in endo and rheum. Labs don't mean what you think they mean. Things are backwards and upside-down.

They... they scare me.
Yes.

I'm a rheumatologist and our tests scare me. They can be your best friend and your worst enemy...
 
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This is Endo and Rheum.

witch_0.jpg
 
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The difference is getting pretty small.

If my wife saw roughly 22 a day, based on Rvus she's looking at 275k, working 36 hours a week, weekends and holidays off, plus 4 weeks paid vacation. Becomes 6 weeks after a few years in practice. Can even have a day or so of virtual visits scheduled from home.

We don't have paid vacation in our line, we have to work for every hour. The average ER doctor makes 360-370k ish. That 100k difference might erode as our market worsens over time. Family medicine on the other hand is a hotly recruited specialty. If we end up at 300k after 5-8 years, then that's with nights, no weekends off, without paid federal holidays off, and without paid leave. Accounting for 10 federal holidays and 4 weeks of paid time off, 275k is roughly equivalent to our 300-315k.
Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but many EM jobs are 1099 whereas other employed physicians work as W2 which further narrows the gap.
 
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The flaw in the study

We modeled this with zero change in age-specific ED use rates (+13.4% total ED visits relative to 2018), 2% reduction in age-specific ED use rates (+11.2% total ED visits relative to 2018), and 5% reduction in age-specific ED use rates (+7.8% total ED visits relative to 2018). The model used +11.2% total ED visits relative to 2018 as the most likely scenario.This estimation is based on the emergence of forces driving reduced use, such as value-based care and nonhospital-based emergency care

Basically they say that people will be less likely to seek emergency care. That genie is not going back into the bottle. The demand for seeing a physician with immediate imaging and lab testing will only increase.
 
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"For anyone still delusional into thinking emergency medicine has a future"

I don't have delusions of EM having a future. I just differ on the reasons for EM's bleak future. I don't think the job market is EM's biggest threat. I think the supply will explode as predicted. But I think demand will meet the supply. I think the oversupply fears are wishful thinking, actually. If there was ever a true oversupply, EM physicians would be underworked, underwhelmed and under-stressed. This is the best of all possible worlds. The reduction in burnout would be such a tremendous benefit, any reduction in income would be well worth the improvement in quality of life.

You'll have an ED to work in. You'll have plenty of patients to see. The patients will NEVER allow knowledge of there being "too many ER doctors" to keep them from flocking to see you, wherever you are, in even bigger droves to drain their abscesses, address their toothaches, and determine why possibly their chest could be "burning" after a 3000 calorie meal.

Then all is well, right?

Nope. The biggest threat to Emergency Physicians is something entirely different.
 
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"For anyone still delusional into thinking emergency medicine has a future"

I don't have delusions of EM having a future. I just differ on the reasons for EM's bleak future. I don't think the job market is EM's biggest threat. I think the supply will explode as predicted. But I think demand will meet the supply. I think the oversupply fears are wishful thinking, actually. If there was ever a true oversupply, EM physicians would be underworked, underwhelmed and under-stressed. This is the best of all possible worlds. The reduction in burnout would be such a tremendous benefit, any reduction in income would be well worth the improvement in quality of life.

You'll have an ED to work in. You'll have plenty of patients to see. The patients will NEVER allow knowledge of there being "too many ER doctors" to keep them from flocking to see you, wherever you are, in even bigger droves to drain their abscesses, address their toothaches, and determine why possibly their chest could be "burning" after a 3000 calorie meal.

Then all is well, right?

Nope. The biggest threat to Emergency Physicians is something entirely different.
But we (most of us) don’t work in a logical marketplace. No offense, but I think your perspective is outdated. See Edwin Leaps recent column for a more timely take.
 
"For anyone still delusional into thinking emergency medicine has a future"

I don't have delusions of EM having a future. I just differ on the reasons for EM's bleak future. I don't think the job market is EM's biggest threat. I think the supply will explode as predicted. But I think demand will meet the supply. I think the oversupply fears are wishful thinking, actually. If there was ever a true oversupply, EM physicians would be underworked, underwhelmed and under-stressed. This is the best of all possible worlds. The reduction in burnout would be such a tremendous benefit, any reduction in income would be well worth the improvement in quality of life.

You'll have an ED to work in. You'll have plenty of patients to see. The patients will NEVER allow knowledge of there being "too many ER doctors" to keep them from flocking to see you, wherever you are, in even bigger droves to drain their abscesses, address their toothaches, and determine why possibly their chest could be "burning" after a 3000 calorie meal.

Then all is well, right?

Nope. The biggest threat to Emergency Physicians is something entirely different.

Huh? CMCs will never increase coverage to help destress EM docs or improve through put, or whatever etc. They don't care. The most important thing CMCs care about is decreasing physician pay and hours as much as possible and keeping staffing as low as possible. They are foaming at the mouth for over supply. The EM doc that is currently getting his ass kicked for 200-250/hr will immediately be cut for the new-grad with 300k in loans for 125/hr. Requires no thought whatsoever.

7845 excess ED docs, wasnt the prior study 8000? Were making headway guys, all is well!

I think it was 10,000, but tomato/tomato.
 
LA/Colorado in a lot of places pays 135 and there are no shortage of docs
 
But we (most of us) don’t work in a logical marketplace. No offense, but I think your perspective is outdated. See Edwin Leaps recent column for a more timely take.

Huh? CMCs will never increase coverage to help destress EM docs or improve through put, or whatever etc. They don't care. The most important thing CMCs care about is decreasing physician pay and hours as much as possible and keeping staffing as low as possible. They are foaming at the mouth for over supply. The EM doc that is currently getting his ass kicked for 200-250/hr will immediately be cut for the new-grad with 300k in loans for 125/hr. Requires no thought whatsoever.



I think it was 10,000, but tomato/tomato.
I could be wrong. It’s very hard to predict the future, after all. And I’ve been away from general EM a long time now, so maybe I’m just out of touch.

But it seems to me, the biggest threat to EM is that no one has a plan to reduce burnout. The oversupply concern may be a problem. But it’s seems small compared to the fact that EM becomes damn near intolerable after 5 years. EM chews it’s doctors up and spits them out.

Let’s say someone reverses the oversupply issue. Does that help the fact that so many people feel EM is unsustainable after 5 years and desperately want a way out?

After the over supply problem is fixed, what’s the plan for making people not hate their jobs and feel desperate for an exit plan?

Or maybe that’s not very important for most people, like it was for me. I don’t know.
 
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Let’s say someone reverses the oversupply issue. Does that help the fact that so many people feel EM is unsustainable after 5 years and desperately want a way out?

After the over supply problem is fixed, what’s the plan for making people not hate their jobs and feel desperate for an exit plan?
Emergency physicians want their cake and they want to eat it too. Many go into emergency medicine thinking it's all emergencies and critical care. I know I did. My pre-med younger self even thought once that draining a pilonidal abscess seemed liked an emergency and pretty cool. Ha. We all like emergent pathology, but usually only for a few hours. We like resuscitation, but usually not the required patience of detail-oriented, longitudinal care of critical illness over a week. At the same time, we want compensation more in line with the more highly compensated medical specialities. We are only willing to take a paycut commensurate with not working 60 hour work weeks in perpetuity, because we'd rather only work 30-40 hours/week by naively tolerating more nights, weekends and holidays. We were in our 20s and only live once though, so hey, it will be epic. Outlook and priorities change with time, perspective and wisdom.

The only fix is to reduce the number one cause of burnout while still maintaining high compensation. Seeing a sea of worried well while we desire solely resuscitation leads to burnout. However, the catch 22 is that if we don't see the worried well, and don't take care of those befallen to a broken medical system, then we won't be highly compensated. The only answer is to find a way to make emergency departments take care of emergencies, yet still compensate EPs highly for their training and willingness to staff an ED 24/7. Will this happen? Highly doubtful. Therefore, the devalued field will suffer from burnout and replacement of those burned out by a steady supply of awe-struck graduates only for the cycle to repeat itself. They start out as trail running, rock climbing, microbrew fanatics slinging in central lines and intubating just as smoothly as skiing powder, only to find themself pushing their own Diltiazem drips on a poles around the ED while continuing to see patients wondering if they're going to experience their own mid-shift STEMI prior to achieving FIRE.

I think this might also just speak to a broader problem in society today. We don't value those that work for a paycheck. Our country rewards those that have their money work for them, increasingly making those that clock in and out stuck owing their souls to the company store. Nurses, techs, restaurant servers, garbage men and many others are quitting in droves. When people are given the opportunities of Medicaid, disability and stimulus checks, they understandably gladly take it and give their middle finger to the system that forsook them. I say this without trying to make this overtly political. Many of these are good ideas in theory that try to help those in need, but really are just sticking bandaids on the problem of the growing inequality gap. Everyone else also just wants their cake and to eat it too. Many didn't sacrifice their 20s to get a half chewed on cupcake though. They aren't as beholden to the path they are on and can walk away at a moment's notice without lost years of their lives. So what's the fix? Heck if I know. It's not 16 tons, but I'm going out in the sun to do a bunch of yard work and manual labor. I'm going to enjoy every minute of it pretending I'm free! Then I'm going to begrudgingly drag myself back to my next block of night shifts where I'll be bludgeoned down by an onslaught of alcoholics/drug addicts, suicidal but "can I have a turkey sandwich and how long until I can leave so I make it home in time for my favorite TV show, because you know your TV isn't working in here," oldies falling down with skin tears but off to the ED from the dementia unit by ambulance there and back for a CT(s) just to be sure, people hyperaware of their bodies requesting a million dollar, non-emergent workup and a specialist consultation because you don't know emergencies like mine, and others who have a really high pain tolerance so something must be seriously wrong. I'd almost rather accidentally cut my arm off (non-dominant of course) with my battery powered chain saw and collect the disability.

The ED is a microcosm and reflection of society. The messy, complicated place in the hospital without an easy fix. We are problem solvers though. If there is a fix for our burnout and we can find it, perhaps it will also offer a fix to a broken medical system and a struggling society. The question is how do we find that fix while we still care enough before we each individually walk off into our golden years that seem to come too early when we still have a lot of life yet to live.
 
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I could be wrong. It’s very hard to predict the future, after all. And I’ve been away from general EM a long time now, so maybe I’m just out of touch.

But it seems to me, the biggest threat to EM is that no one has a plan to reduce burnout. The oversupply concern may be a problem. But it’s seems small compared to the fact that EM becomes damn near intolerable after 5 years. EM chews it’s doctors up and spits them out.

Let’s say someone reverses the oversupply issue. Does that help the fact that so many people feel EM is unsustainable after 5 years and desperately want a way out?

After the over supply problem is fixed, what’s the plan for making people not hate their jobs and feel desperate for an exit plan?

Or maybe that’s not very important for most people, like it was for me. I don’t know.
For all the talk about burnout and FIRE I don't really see a lot of quitting happening. Rather, I see a whole lot of (obviously burnt to a crisp) old docs clearly past their expiration point hanging on.

It'll become harder to get out once salaries are down 50%.

Also, I'm not optimistic on the projections. They assumed that midlevels are going to continue seeing the same proportion of patients. Is this realistic? Pretty sure Usuck et al are targeting a 1:4 ratio.
 
Emergency physicians want their cake and they want to eat it too. Many go into emergency medicine thinking it's all emergencies and critical care. I know I did. My pre-med younger self even thought once that draining a pilonidal abscess seemed liked an emergency and pretty cool. Ha. We all like emergent pathology, but usually only for a few hours. We like resuscitation, but usually not the required patience of detail-oriented, longitudinal care of critical illness over a week. At the same time, we want compensation more in line with the more highly compensated medical specialities. We are only willing to take a paycut commensurate with not working 60 hour work weeks in perpetuity, because we'd rather only work 30-40 hours/week by naively tolerating more nights, weekends and holidays. We were in our 20s and only live once though, so hey, it will be epic. Outlook and priorities change with time, perspective and wisdom.

The only fix is to reduce the number one cause of burnout while still maintaining high compensation. Seeing a sea of worried well while we desire solely resuscitation leads to burnout. However, the catch 22 is that if we don't see the worried well, and don't take care of those befallen to a broken medical system, then we won't be highly compensated. The only answer is to find a way to make emergency departments take care of emergencies, yet still compensate EPs highly for their training and willingness to staff an ED 24/7. Will this happen? Highly doubtful. Therefore, the devalued field will suffer from burnout and replacement of those burned out by a steady supply of awe-struck graduates only for the cycle to repeat itself. They start out as trail running, rock climbing, microbrew fanatics slinging in central lines and intubating just as smoothly as skiing power, only to find themself pushing their own Diltiazem drips on a poles around the ED while continuing to see patients wondering if they're going to experience their own mid-shift STEMI prior to achieving FIRE.

I think this might also just speak to a broader problem in society today. We don't value those that work for a paycheck. Our country rewards those that have their money work for them, increasingly making those that clock in and out stuck owing their souls to the company store. Nurses, techs, restaurant servers, garbage men and many others are quitting in droves. When people are given the opportunities of Medicaid, disability and stimulus checks, they understandably gladly take it and give their middle finger to the system that forsook them. I say this without trying to make this overtly political. Many of these are good ideas in theory that try to help those in need, but really are just sticking bandaids on the problem of the growing inequality gap. Everyone else also just wants their cake and to eat it too. Many didn't sacrifice their 20s to get a half chewed on cupcake though. They aren't as beholden to the path they are on and can walk away at a moment's notice without lost years of their lives. So what's the fix? Heck if I know. It's not 16 tons, but I'm going out in the sun to do a bunch of yard work and manual labor. I'm going to enjoy every minute of it pretending I'm free! Then I'm going to begrudgingly drag myself back to my next block of night shifts where I'll be bludgeoned down by an onslaught of alcoholics/drug addicts, suicidal but "can I have a turkey sandwich and how long until I can leave so I make it home in time for my favorite TV show, because you know your TV isn't working in here," oldies falling down with skin tears but off to the ED from the dementia unit by ambulance there and back for a CT(s) just to be sure, people hyperaware of their bodies requesting a million dollar, non-emergent workup and a specialist consultation because you don't know emergencies like mine, and others who have a really high pain tolerance so something must be seriously wrong. I'd almost rather accidentally cut my arm off (non-dominant of course) with my battery powered chain saw and collect the disability.

The ED is a microcosm and reflection of society. The messy, complicated place in the hospital without an easy fix. We are problem solvers though. If there is a fix for our burnout and we can find it, perhaps it will also offer a fix to a broken medical system and a struggling society. The question is how do we find that fix while we still care enough before we each individually walk off into our golden years that seem to come to early when we still have a lot of life yet to live.

Fantastic summary on multiple levels.

I wouldn't mind seeing the worried well so much if they were at all reasonably behaved. But, they're not. And they're told that "the customer is always right".
 
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For all the talk about burnout and FIRE I don't really see a lot of quitting happening. Rather, I see a whole lot of (obviously burnt to a crisp) old docs..
Those "burnt to a crisp" docs aren't getting out, you're right. That's because they feel trapped. That makes the burnout even worse.
 
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Those "burnt to a crisp" docs aren't getting out, you're right. That's because they feel trapped. That makes the burnout even worse.

Actually I am seeing a lot of openings in my city, so a lot of docs did get burnt out and quit.

Not sure if that’s the case elsewhere.
 
Emergency physicians want their cake and they want to eat it too. ...The question is how do we find that fix while we still care enough before we each individually walk off into our golden years that seem to come to early when we still have a lot of life yet to live.
Very well said. My personal opinion is that the ED, and Emergency Medicine as a career, isn't fixable within one career's time. Maybe it'll be fixed 50, or 100 years from now. But that doesn't help any of us here. That means the solution must be individual. Unless, you're one of those EM doc's that seems to be born to live and die in the ED (<10%) then it means finding ways to be able to maintain your salary, without being dependent on the night, weekend and holiday work, i.e., being able to reduce the general EM shifts by 50-75% or more.

The best way to do it is to build your talent stack, i.e. adding a completely different skill that makes you unique enough, you're equally as valued financially, outside of an EM. For me, that meant doing an Interventional Pain fellowship. For others, it might mean running EMS, doing administration, or non-medical things like real estate.

The common thread is, each of those allows one to reduce the soul crushing combination of circadian rhythm dysthymia, impossible patient expectations, family life disruption and administration-induced gaslighting.

You've got to find a way to maintain your salary, without that salary being dependent on physically being present in an ED for the majority of your working hours.
 
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Actually I am seeing a lot of openings in my city, so a lot of docs did get burnt out and quit.

Not sure if that’s the case elsewhere.
Hopefully. It could also be that they've just had to increase staffing back to historical norms. As I recall, one could move to nearly any city in the country back in 2019. (It could also be that they're collecting CVs in anticipation of firing people, but that's probably overly pessimistic).
 
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