>>Pushing glass for actionable diagnoses is still extremely cost effective. In this era of federal bean counting, expensive disruptive technologies that would ordinarily supplant more primitive but cheaper methods will not be covered.
This.
Biopsy stained with H&E and interpreted by a trained physician gives a definitive and generally highly reliable diagnosis for a wide variety of diseases, in one business day for a cost of about $75. In terms of pure testing cost-effectiveness, its one of the best bargains in all of medicine. H&E is 110+ years old, there are good reasons we're still using it, and its not going away any time soon.
>>Now, rationed care is another thing altogether. We are going to continue to suffer cuts, and not only that--we are going to be told how to practice, down to what stains we may order or face charges of fraud. Whatever fat that remains in pathology is going to be carved away, leaving a heavily-regulated, barebones operation.
Not sure we're going to be told what stains to order or not order, but stain reimbursement will probably be cut further, and possibly even capped. You can get as many stains as you like, but you're only going to be reimbursed for the first "X" of them, and not much at that. If you need more stains, you eat the cost. Some payers already do it this way.
>>But there will still be pathology. Less of a medical specialty and more of a glorified medical technology. Less income but less scope of practice and less responsibility.
Well, many individuals already consider pathology to be not more than a lab tech. That view is hardy new, though its simply not correct. A good pathologist does more than just look at slides and note (like a tech with a blood smear) what's on there. They have to correlate with clinical findings, and use medical judgment to make clinically relevant diagnoses. It simply can't be done by individuals without significant training and medical background.
So long as human beings are physically reading slides, making substantial diagnoses (like cancers), and actually being held accountable for getting the DXs right, then they're necessarily going to have physician-level responsibility. I don't see any way around that.
At the end of the day, pay is dependent on volume and reimbursement levels. Volumes aren't going anywhere but up. Reimbursements, unfortunately, aren't. Pathologists who don't insist on being paid for the work they actually do, won't be. That's also, nothing new, and the corporate/hospital physician-employee model is now prevalent in many other medical specialties, including internal medicine.
But I agree pathology isn't going anywhere. People still get diseases that, at least of now and the foreseeable future, can only be diagnosed by tissue evaluation. No molecular test is going to evaluate margins or make important surgical diagnostic based decisions in real time. As I said in the thread on oncotype, wake me up when there is some molecular based blood test that can determine intraoperative margins on a basal cell carcinoma on someone's eyelid.