Emergency Medicine Wins!!! More Residency Positions

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I do not understand all the MS-1, MS-2, MS-3, and MS-4 who seem to think the answer to their prayers is "More residency spots".

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I mean just using anesthesia as a comparison... these numbers are not reassuring. In fact they are quite infuriating. And the most infuriating part is no one knows what the heck to do, and the people with all the power don’t seem to care :/
 
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I do not understand all the MS-1, MS-2, MS-3, and MS-4 who seem to think the answer to their prayers is "More residency spots".

Many have never attempted to find a job before, especially not in a saturated market. I remember searching for a Biochem engineering job 6 years ago and that was hell. Filling out 120 apps for 2 interviews over 3 months, not geographically selective either. Even once you get a job your boss has you by the balls because if you’re fired or quit its totally over for you.

That said the match rate dropped a full percentage this year and is only predicted going to get worse, so I can understand the panic. 14k new residency spots isn’t the solution though.
 
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Dermatology will be next to fall. Lots of PE infiltration and large increase in residency positions.
 
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Who is sponsoring their positions? HCA?
 
Who is sponsoring their positions? HCA?
Everybody.

While HCA is a big player, they only have 16 EM programs out of the total 273 programs in the 2021 match. In 2016 there were 174 NRMP positions and 58 AOA programs. (232 total) At least 3 programs I know of closed and I am sure many of the AOA ones did as well during the merger. This also doesn't include all the class expansions that have gone underway too.

The number of new programs in since 2018 is astounding! A quick look at the list of programs still listed under initial accreditation (2018 or newer or an older new program that got a warning) that I don't believe are former AOA includes:

Academic (ish):
* Albert Einstein Healthcare Network/Einstein Medical Center Montgomery
Ascension Providence/MSUCHM Program
Aultman Hospital/NEOMED Program
Baylor University Medical Center Program
Baylor All Saints Medical Center Fort Worth
Florida State University College of Medicine
Loyola University Medical Center Program
Midwestern University GME Consortium / Kingman Program
Ochsner Clinic Foundation Program
* Riverside University Health System Program
Rutgers Health/Community Medical Center Program
Summa Health System Program (we all know the history)
Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center at Lubbock Program
University of Vermont Medical Center Program
UPMC Pinnacle Hospitals Program
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell at South Shore University Hospital Program

Community:
Abrazo
Beaumont Health (Farmington Hills) Program
Beaumont Health (Trenton and Dearborn) Program
Broward Health
Capital Health Regional Medical Center Program
HCA Healthcare LewisGale Medical Center Program
HCA Healthcare/Mercer University School of Medicine Program
HCA Healthcare/Mercer University School of Medicine/Coliseum Medical Centers Program
HCA Healthcare/Mercer University School of Medicine/Orange Park Medical Center Program
HCA Healthcare/USF Morsani College of Medicine GME: Brandon Regional Hospital Program
HCA Healthcare/USF Morsani College of Medicine GME: Oak Hill Hospital Program
HCA Healthcare: East Florida Division GME: St. Lucie Medical Center Program
HCA Houston Healthcare/University of Houston Program
* HCA Medical City Healthcare UNT-TCU Graduate Medical Education Program
Magnolia Regional Health Center Program
Kaiser Permanente Northern California Program
Memorial Healthcare System, Hollywood, Florida Program
Robert Packer Hospital Program
St Joseph's Medical Center Program
St Luke ’s Hospital – Anderson Campus Program
* Tower Health Program
UHS Southern California Medical Education Consortium Program
Unity Health-White County Medical Center Program
USA Health
Valley Health System Program
Wyckoff Heights Medical Center Program
University of Central Florida/HCA Healthcare GME (Ocala) Program
Trinity Health System Program
Swedish Hospital Program
St. Agnes Medical Center (Fresno) Program
Riverside Regional Medical Center Program
Nazareth Hospital Program
Northeast Georgia Medical Center Program
Nuvance Health Program
Mercy Health-St Rita's Medical Center Program

*Denotes accreditation this year and likely not in the match numbers
 
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That said the match rate dropped a full percentage this year and is only predicted going to get worse, so I can understand the panic. 14k new residency spots isn’t the solution though.


The Match needs to favor US MDs then DOs, then IMGs then FMGs much like Canada's match does. That would go a very long way in the US match rate and allay fears for medical students.

The other thing that needs to happen is all those garbage DO schools that have popped up in the last decade need to shut down, but realistically that won't happen.
 
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Breaking News​

Read breaking news and articles published ahead of print. Tell us what you think and comment on your colleagues’ views about EMN articles.

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

After Years of Calling for More EPs, EM Finds Itself with Too Many​

BY GINA SHAW

There will likely be nearly 10,000 more emergency physicians than there are jobs for them by 2030, according to a new study commissioned by the American College of Emergency Physicians. (Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce Projections for 2030. April 9, 2021; EM Workforce of the Future)
“We are now facing for the first time in history a likely oversupply of emergency physicians within the next decade,” said ACEP President Mark Rosenberg, DO, the chair of emergency medicine at St. Joseph’s Health in Paterson and Wayne, NJ, in a webinar releasing the findings. (EM Physician Workforce of the Future Webinar - April 9, 2020.)

Emergency medicine residency programs and the overall number of residency slots in the specialty have grown significantly. A total of 4565 residents were in 145 emergency medicine programs in 2008, a number that shot up to 7940 residents in 247 programs by 2019, a 74 percent increase. The number of EM residency slots increased by six percent between 2018 and 2019 alone.

“Emergency medicine is now the second most popular specialty in the country after internal medicine,” said Louis Ling, MD, formerly the senior vice president for hospital-based accreditation at the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME), during the webinar, citing the results of the 2021 residency match held in March. “More people matched to emergency medicine than to family medicine or pediatrics. Combining supply data with demand data, we would need to cut about 1000 residency graduates a year, which gives you an idea of the kind of supply we have.”

The study was commissioned by a task force of eight specialty organizations, including ACEP, the American Board of Emergency Medicine, the American College of Osteopathic Emergency Physicians, the American Osteopathic Board of Emergency Medicine, the Emergency Medicine Residents’ Association, the Council of Residency Directors in Emergency Medicine, the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine, and the Association of Academic Chairs of Emergency Medicine. Representatives from each of those groups presented recommendations during the webinar to help address the incipient workforce crisis:

  • Encouraging or requiring emergency medicine residency training to be extended to four years without increasing the complement of residents.Increasing emergency medicine procedural requirements to be more robust.
  • Increasing resident salaries to decrease incentives for residencies to be established for the purpose of providing low-cost labor.
  • Calling for fewer residents in each new program and existing programs, or even decreasing positions in current programs.
  • Calling for a decrease in or a halt to new emergency medicine residencies.
  • Investigating the legitimacy of for-profit organizations funding training programs, including potential conflicts of interest.
  • Supporting standardized training for NPPs working in the ED.
  • Better identifying competencies of NPPs compared with emergency physicians.
  • Ensuring that the physician-led team model in the ED is endorsed and promoted.
  • Categorizing emergency departments, including metrics for physicians, NPPs, supervision, and outcomes, to set professional standards for overall better practice.
 
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Good to see they're at least acknowledging the problem, taking it seriously and proposing solutions. It's a start. Will they be able to enact effective solutions before the Hospital-CMG-Government Complex gets the desired result of their planned over supply?
 
Good to see they're at least acknowledging the problem, taking it seriously and proposing solutions. It's a start.
I just don’t see that the problem is fixable, but maybe there’s a way somehow… in the meantime as Rekt stated I’m just gonna white knuckle the job I have and try not to bitch about anything (which is difficult for me).
 
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EM should increase to 5 years and require dual specialty training (e.g. EM/IM, EM/peds, EM/FM). Problem solved.
 
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EM should increase to 5 years and require dual specialty training (e.g. EM/IM, EM/peds, EM/FM). Problem solved.

Yep. Let's make it even harder to be a EM physician while some 20 year old that took some on-line classes and shadowed for 500 hours (probably didn't even show up and just got checked off by the "provider") takes your spot while you're waiting your five years plus four plus four years
 
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Good to see they're at least acknowledging the problem, taking it seriously and proposing solutions. It's a start. Will they be able to enact effective solutions before the Hospital-CMG-Government Complex gets the desired result of their planned over supply?

No.


And unfortunately Dr. Cook has been publishing issues with EM oversupply in EM News for years along with the AAEM report two years ago. So it's nothing new for this publisher. People don't care.
 
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No.


And unfortunately Dr. Cook has been publishing issues with EM oversupply in EM News for years along with the AAEM report two years ago. So it's nothing new for this publisher. People don't care.

More insanely, med students don't seem to care.
 
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More insanely, med students don't seem to care.
College and medical school teaches altruism and tells students that they need to "help people". They are told time and time again that money isn't important, and if it is to them then they aren't right for medicine.

During my med school opening day (at a big reputable school) the Dean said that he was disheartened that anyone would talk about what kind of Mercedes they were going to buy when they graduate. He stated that if any student in the room thought that was important they should leave now.
 
College and medical school teaches altruism and tells students that they need to "help people". They are told time and time again that money isn't important, and if it is to them then they aren't right for medicine.

During my med school opening day (at a big reputable school) the Dean said that he was disheartened that anyone would talk about what kind of Mercedes they were going to buy when they graduate. He stated that if any student in the room thought that was important they should leave now.
grandpa simpson.gif


Sometimes I wish I had grandpa simpson'd my way right on out. But god help me I love physiology so much, and I am fascinated day in/out in the ICU. If it weren't for the people, this would be the best job in the world.
 
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Sometimes I wish I had grandpa simpson'd my way right on out. But god help me I love physiology so much, and I am fascinated day in/out in the ICU. If it weren't for the people, this would be the best job in the world.

If we could just do proper medicine, and not have to deal with unrealistic expectations and complaints the job would be great. I'm tired of taking 30 minutes to explain to every hypertensive person whey we aren't emergently lowering their BP. If I don't waste a great deal of time on this non-medical emergency then it will generate a complaint letter. I definitely take -2 Stamina after each of these encounters.
 
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If we could just do proper medicine, and not have to deal with unrealistic expectations and complaints the job would be great. I'm tired of taking 30 minutes to explain to every hypertensive person whey we aren't emergently lowering their BP. If I don't waste a great deal of time on this non-medical emergency then it will generate a complaint letter. I definitely take -2 Stamina after each of these encounters.
I'm with you. I used to look at the board and get excited: "oh cool, complex facial lac" "oh cool a trauma" "oh cool dislocated elbow." Now all I see is the hassle of taking time to do a time-consuming procedure while 20 more people check in, fighting with a consultant for whatever, explaining to a patient why they don't need admission. I wish I could just record a video of all my difficult conversations and play it for people. I get that they're scared and I do empathize with that. But not even the most empathetic person of all time can have the same benign conversation 5x a day and not get sick of it.

The ICU is better to a large extent. It's just that now my conversations have shifted to explaining why your 90 year old morbid mother shouldn't be full code, and setting those expectations. It's the same gig, I just have more time to do it. Which actually helps quite a lot.
 
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If we could just do proper medicine, and not have to deal with unrealistic expectations and complaints the job would be great. I'm tired of taking 30 minutes to explain to every hypertensive person whey we aren't emergently lowering their BP. If I don't waste a great deal of time on this non-medical emergency then it will generate a complaint letter. I definitely take -2 Stamina after each of these encounters.
On the contrary, I would love to be able to spend the 10-15 minutes with the patient to explain everything to them and talk with their PMD. However, when you staff a department for 2.5/hour (which really means 3.5-4 during peak and 1 overnight) you don't have time. It is even worse in some CMG shops that staff worse than that. If we staffed the ED for 1.5-2/hour with appropriate reimbursement, we could enjoy these prolonged procedures and conversations. However, the incentives from the admin and payers do not align with quality patient care. On top of that, so many of our patients' PCPs are PLPs sending patients to the ED for BPs of 180/90 so talking to them is a waste of our time...
 
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College and medical school teaches altruism and tells students that they need to "help people". They are told time and time again that money isn't important, and if it is to them then they aren't right for medicine.

During my med school opening day (at a big reputable school) the Dean said that he was disheartened that anyone would talk about what kind of Mercedes they were going to buy when they graduate. He stated that if any student in the room thought that was important they should leave now.
Would have been better if he said he was disheartened because you should buy a lambo instead.
 
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On the contrary, I would love to be able to spend the 10-15 minutes with the patient to explain everything to them and talk with their PMD. However, when you staff a department for 2.5/hour (which really means 3.5-4 during peak and 1 overnight) you don't have time. It is even worse in some CMG shops that staff worse than that. If we staffed the ED for 1.5-2/hour with appropriate reimbursement, we could enjoy these prolonged procedures and conversations. However, the incentives from the admin and payers do not align with quality patient care. On top of that, so many of our patients' PCPs are PLPs sending patients to the ED for BPs of 180/90 so talking to them is a waste of our time...

Talking to patients is the worst part of the job.
 
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Well, to be equitable, a fully tricked G wagon, while ugly as hell, goes for over $400k.
I've never understood the G wagons. I've never ridden in one or driven one, so maybe I don't know what I'm missing. But what's so good about them? To me they just look like an overpriced Jeep designed to separate yuppies from their money. Turn me into a G-wagon fanboy.
 
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I've never understood the G wagons. I've never ridden in one or driven one, so maybe I don't know what I'm missing. But what's so good about them? To me they just look like an overpriced Jeep designed to separate yuppies from their money. Turn me into a G-wagon fanboy.
I can't. As I said, ugly as hell. I, myself, don't get it.
 
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Well, to be equitable, a fully tricked G wagon, while ugly as hell, goes for over $400k.
Looked at the new Taycan. While beautiful and fast AF, it's overpriced for what it is. If I was getting an SUV it would be a new Range Rover Supercharged. I had one once, and it was fun to drive.

I've pre-ordered a new Tesla S, but who knows when it might be released.....
 
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Yep. Let's make it even harder to be a EM physician while some 20 year old that took some on-line classes and shadowed for 500 hours (probably didn't even show up and just got checked off by the "provider") takes your spot while you're waiting your five years plus four plus four years
All thanks to corporate America!
 
Looked at the new Taycan. While beautiful and fast AF, it's overpriced for what it is. If I was getting an SUV it would be a new Range Rover Supercharged. I had one once, and it was fun to drive.

I've pre-ordered a new Tesla S, but who knows when it might be released.....
Range rover...Why not a Porsche Cayenne GTS or Turbo S
 
College and medical school teaches altruism and tells students that they need to "help people". They are told time and time again that money isn't important, and if it is to them then they aren't right for medicine.

During my med school opening day (at a big reputable school) the Dean said that he was disheartened that anyone would talk about what kind of Mercedes they were going to buy when they graduate. He stated that if any student in the room thought that was important they should leave now.

I'd love to know what kind of car he drove.
I'm guessing it probably wasn't a Kia.
 
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I said it before and I'll say it again. Dermatology will be the next to fall.
 
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So in 12 yrs, EM has increased 180%of positions and the field is essentially decimated.

Derm in 12 yrs has increased 110%, so as I think these trends will continue in the next 10 yrs they will be decimated.

You can lump psych all the way down to Orthopedics who all will be over 120% in 10 yrs.

I actually expect them all to be accelerated but the obvious point is all of these fields will have twice as much spots as their were 12 yrs ago. That is ALOT of docs being pumped out and the supply will greatly outweigh demand/retirements.
 
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I said it before and I'll say it again. Dermatology will be the next to fall.
Good article on derm/private equity. Last year it was estimated PE owned 10% of the derm practices. How soon to a majority?



When individual doctors sell, they generally receive $2 million to $7 million each, with 30% to 40% of that paid in equity in the group. After the acquisition, doctors get a lower salary and are asked to help recruit other doctors to sell their practices or to join as employees.

At first, doctors are generally thrilled by all of this.

Doctors who join a private equity-backed group generally sign contracts that state they’ll never have to compromise their medical judgment, but some say that management began to intervene there, too. Dermatologists at most of the companies say they were pushed to see as many as twice the number of patients a day, which made them feel rushed and unable to provide the same quality of care. Others were forced to discuss their cases with managers or medical directors, who asked the doctors to explain why they weren’t sending more patients for surgery.
At Advanced Dermatology, several doctors say they were asked to claim that physician assistants, or PAs, were under their supervision when they weren’t seeing patients in the same building, or even the same town. Because PAs are paid less than dermatologists, this allowed the company to keep costs low while growing the business. In a statement, Eric Hunt, Advanced’s general counsel and chief compliance officer says that having PAs on staff enables the company to “provide access to quality dermatological care to more patients.”

Advanced Dermatology also started giving even more authority to PAs, according to doctors and staff. Without enough oversight some were missing deadly skin cancers, they say. Others were doing too many biopsies and cutting out much larger areas of skin than necessary, leaving patients with big scars. Doctors who complained about the bad behavior say they saw PAs moved to other locations rather than fired or given more supervision.

Many doctors may ultimately come to regret cashing out, but it’s hard to get out once you’re in. As part of an acquisition, the private equity groups typically require doctors to sign yearslong contracts, with noncompete clauses that prevent them from working in the surrounding area.
 
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Maybe but people love their dermatologist and they have the advantage of not being hospital based.
Sound familiar?


“Currently, about 10% of dermatology practices in the United States are controlled by private equity. In 2009 there were 229 dermatology practices bought by private equity. In 2019, there were 747. “They are bragging that in 5 years they are going to own 80% of dermatology in the United States,” said Dr. Grant-Kels.

Private equity firms may let go of more seasoned physicians in the practice, replacing them with younger physicians, who will work for less, as well as physician extenders such as nurse practitioners and physicians’ assistants. A single physician may oversee as many as 5 to 10 physician extenders, who often see new patients or perform complex diagnoses and procedures that are beyond their scope of training. The private equity firm may also mandate more expensive treatment options, even if it goes against the patient’s best interests. “Any primary skin cancer on the face has to be sent for Mohs, even if you think you can excise it,” said Dr. Grant-Kels.


“They offer a young dermatologist a pretty good salary to start, and then they ‘normalize’ those salaries and lower them,” she continued. “They make them sign a noncompete [agreement]. … You owe your soul to them because the noncompetes can be very wide and very unreasonable. And although you could fight them if you go to court, that's very expensive to do it. Most young people don't have the funding to do that.”

There are wider consequences. Private equity firms are starting their own residencies and then hiring their own residents. “Residents are paid an unlivable wage and are [therefore] required to borrow from the private equity practice. When they graduate, they immediately have to pay it back or work for the private equity firm,” said Dr. Grant-Kels. “It’s a form of indentured servitude.” Specialists are hired away from academic medical centers, making it more difficult to train new dermatologists in academic settings.
 
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Sound familiar?


“Currently, about 10% of dermatology practices in the United States are controlled by private equity. In 2009 there were 229 dermatology practices bought by private equity. In 2019, there were 747. “They are bragging that in 5 years they are going to own 80% of dermatology in the United States,” said Dr. Grant-Kels.

Private equity firms may let go of more seasoned physicians in the practice, replacing them with younger physicians, who will work for less, as well as physician extenders such as nurse practitioners and physicians’ assistants. A single physician may oversee as many as 5 to 10 physician extenders, who often see new patients or perform complex diagnoses and procedures that are beyond their scope of training. The private equity firm may also mandate more expensive treatment options, even if it goes against the patient’s best interests. “Any primary skin cancer on the face has to be sent for Mohs, even if you think you can excise it,” said Dr. Grant-Kels.


“They offer a young dermatologist a pretty good salary to start, and then they ‘normalize’ those salaries and lower them,” she continued. “They make them sign a noncompete [agreement]. … You owe your soul to them because the noncompetes can be very wide and very unreasonable. And although you could fight them if you go to court, that's very expensive to do it. Most young people don't have the funding to do that.”

There are wider consequences. Private equity firms are starting their own residencies and then hiring their own residents. “Residents are paid an unlivable wage and are [therefore] required to borrow from the private equity practice. When they graduate, they immediately have to pay it back or work for the private equity firm,” said Dr. Grant-Kels. “It’s a form of indentured servitude.” Specialists are hired away from academic medical centers, making it more difficult to train new dermatologists in academic settings.
Oh I know it’s happening but don’t see why any dermatologist would be forced to sell his/her practice if they don’t want to.
 
I said it before and I'll say it again. Dermatology will be the next to fall.
I agree, except I think there is a reasonably large market for cash practice cosmetic derm.
 
Which is being filled by ARNP, NDs, or Aestheticians of seek out a random medical license to hire.
Also true and also problematic for derm.

I agree the field is in trouble. There are more off-ramps, but I would pick IM for job prospects over derm right now.
 
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Which is being filled by ARNP, NDs, or Aestheticians of seek out a random medical license to hire.
@Sushirolls I'm curious of your opinion as a PP psychiatrist if you agree with some others here that psychiatry will be among the next to fall. The expansion numbers look worrisome, but there is also major need. Are you worried about the future of the field relative to derm?
 
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March 24, 2021

The Honorable Bob Menendez The Honorable John Boozman
U.S. Senate U.S. Senate
528 Hart Senate Office Building 141 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510 Washington, DC 20510
The Honorable Chuck Schumer
U.S. Senate
322 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510

Dear Senator Menendez, Senator Boozman, and Majority Leader Schumer:

On behalf of the Graduate Medical Education (GME) Advocacy Coalition, the undersigned
organizations offer our enthusiastic support for the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act
(S. 834). This bipartisan legislation is crucial to expanding the physician workforce and to
ensuring that patients across the country are able to access quality care from providers.
The need for physicians continues to grow faster than supply, leading to an estimated shortfall of
between 54,100 and 139,000 primary care and specialty physicians by 2033. The COVID-19
pandemic has further exposed the significant barriers to care that patients face, and has also
highlighted rising concerns of clinician burnout. This is particularly alarming given that more
than two of five currently active physicians will be 65 or older within the next decade, raising
concerns about the impact of physician retirement. Additionally, the U.S. population is
continuing to both grow and age, and access issues persist in rural and underserved areas. The
physician workforce is a critical element of our nation’s health care infrastructure, and if we do
not address this impending problem, patients from pediatrics to geriatrics and nearly everyone in
between, will find it even more difficult to access the care they need.
America’s medical schools, teaching hospitals, and their physician partners are doing their part
by investing in physician and health care provider training and leading innovations in new care
delivery models that are more efficient and include better use of technologies — like telehealth
— that improve patient access to care. Even with these efforts, however, shortages and access
challenges will persist unless we expand the physician workforce.
We are grateful that bipartisan congressional leaders worked together to provide 1,000 new
Medicare-supported GME positions in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 – the first
increase of its kind in nearly 25 years. The Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2021
would build on this historic investment by gradually raising the number of Medicare-supported
GME positions by 2,000 per year for seven years, for a total of 14,000 new slots.
A share of
these positions would be targeted to hospitals with diverse needs including hospitals in rural
areas, hospitals serving patients from health professional shortage areas (HPSAs), hospitals in
states with new medical schools or branch campuses, and hospitals already training over their
caps.
We look forward to working together to support the training of future physicians and to secure
the passage of this important legislation.

Sincerely,

Association of American Medical Colleges
Academic Consortium for Integrative Medicine & Health
Academy for Professionalism in Health Care
Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine (AAIM)
Alliance of Specialty Medicine
America's Essential Hospitals
American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry
American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology
American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine
American Academy of Neurology
American Academy of Ophthalmology
American Academy of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation
American Association of Chairs of Departments of Psychiatry
American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine
American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training
American Association of Neurological Surgeons
American Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons
American College of Academic Addiction Medicine (ACAAM)
American College of Mohs Surgery
American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
American College of Physicians
American College of Radiology
American College of Rheumatology
American College of Surgeons
American Gastroenterological Association
American Geriatrics Society
American Headache Society
American Medical Association
American Medical Student Association
American Osteopathic Association
American Psychiatric Association
American Society for Clinical Pathology
American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM)
American Society of Addiction Medicine
American Society of Anesthesiologists
American Society of Echocardiography
American Society of Hematology
American Society of Plastic Surgeons
American Urological Association
Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries
Association of Academic Physiatrists
Association of Minority Health Professions
Association of Pathology Chairs
Association of Professors of Dermatology
Association of Professors of Gynecology and Obstetrics
Association of University Professors of Ophthalmology (AUPO)
Catholic Health Association of the United States
Children's Hospital Association
Coalition of State Rheumatology Organizations
College of American Pathologists
Congress of Neurological Surgeons
Federation of American Hospitals
Greater New York Hospital Association
Healthcare Association of New York State
Heart Failure Society of America
Illinois Health and Hospital Association
Medical Group Management Association
National Association of Spine Specialists
Premier Healthcare Alliance
Society for Academic Emergency Medicine
Society for Vascular Surgery
Society of Academic Associations of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine
Society of Directors of Research in Medical Education
Society of General Internal Medicine
Society of Hospital Medicine
Society of University Surgeons
Student National Medical Association (SNMA)
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
Vizient, Inc.
 
Delusions of grandeur
 
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I think EM is first, then anesthesiology. Rad Onc and Pathology will continue to wallow.

After that will be a straight across the board decline of the hospital based IM subspecialties. Pushed in part by expansion of ARNP/PAs filling more and more roles. One can already see this in Sleep Medicine. Look at the job postings. More and more are ARNPs. Most places only want one sleep doc, and then an army of ARNPs/PAs which is the impending Big Box shop model for everything.

Surgical specialties will start to decline some, too, straight across all surgical specialties as re-alignments of insurance pay suppression intersects with Big Box Shop medicine gobbling up more percentages of surgical practice. That even if they are still well compensated that money will go to the employer overlords and not the docs. States with Certificate of Need will prevent the exodus to surgery centers meaning everyone is stuck in the hospital - a bad place to be. They will decline, not crumble, and the financial pay in concert with the shorter career span, and higher opportunity cost to get there, means anyone really thinking will ask themselves - is this really worth the cost?

Derm will be next to be crushed, but not as bad as EM or Rad Onc or Path. Some degree of patient loyalty will exist for the annual skin checks and if the determined derm puts the shingle up, gets rocked for a few years financially they will eventually have their own. Their own little practice with stable patients and freedom, but it will be a harder road to achieve when surround by Big Box shops and every wannabe derm out there. FM/IM/EM reborn/NDs/ARNPs, etc.

Radiology will likely start to succumb to the pressures or midlevel encroachment, too.

OB/GYN simply won't grow. They will continue on as is, because all future growth will be in duloas and midwives etc. Hospitals will continue to need them for coverage of "oh shoot we need a c-section stat!" but the rest of their expertise and skill will be disregarded like the rest. Over time, the independent OB groups slowly trickle down because of Draconian hospital Big Box shop practices that push out any independent groups and their quest to have only their medical groups.

Next to fall is CC, as EM flood into its ranks, with anesthesiology too, then the Big Box shop pressure to staff with layers of ARNPs/PAs will hasten its decline.

Next to fall is Pain because of the cascading dominos of exit seekers seeing fellowships as their out. Pure saturation. Same for hospice; but hospice will also have midlevel encroachment.

Ophthalmology will get hit by declining reimbursements, Optometry expansion and similar to the other surgical specialties, is it worth the cost?

Peds will fall next because all the ARNPs completing FNP certifications will simply see them as 'little people' and a weekend CME course will get them up to speed. Some protection will exist for peds to flee to fellowships for awhile, but they too will become populated by ARNPs/PAs with only few signatory docs around for ornamental purposes. There will be unemployed Pediatricians.

PM&R will suffer next, but quietly, because there are so few of them and most people don't even know they exist. Token docs will be kept around for Rehab hospitals, but their only outpatient future rests on graces of ortho/neurosurgery groups keeping them around. There will be unemployed PM&R.

Psychiatry won't fall, but it will get tough. Big Box Shop jobs will become saturated by ARNPs/PAs. I'm in a saturated area now and already seeing it. My practice is growing slowly, so I'm a bit more in the front of the wave than other locations in the country. Hospitals will only keep around token docs for being med directors. The remaining Psychiatrists will flee to niche environments like eating disorders or addiction facilities but these are such low volume anyways, quickly they saturate, too. The rest flee to outpatient practice but there they are met with steep competition from ARNPs already in practice. Some will choose the path of very slow insurance based practice growth with rates that are well below medicare; others will opt cash but quickly the realties of cash and med check focus isn't enough volume and they have to do therapy. There is room for therapy/med check and patients will delight in this. Because a patient goes from being 400+ down to 100+ there is room for this surge. It will in some circles be considered a positive rebirth for psychiatry as more niche practices develop. Trauma clinic, GAD clinic, depression clinic, etc. Even hallucinogen therapy clinics... But one barrier to this, will be the psychology prescribing as they get their scope of expansion, because they are ticked off at the masters levels therapists. Psychiatry will survive, but it will be tough, it will be slow rate of growth and it will be very focused on niche practices and the niche wave will push further and further rural. Psychiatry will be akin to dentistry and people will look to take over (even buy?) retiring practices. Some practices will expedite their growth by liberally using benzos and stimulants; This will persist until/if an opioid epidemic reality strikes at the level of national players that seek to eliminate benzos are tighten down on stimulants - but before it happens there will be a flood first.

PCPs will be more resilient as they are PRIMARY. They will be able to open all sorts of independent practices. Cash/ retainer/ DPC/ boutique/ whatever. As their numbers surge, and they start to have only a handful of token docs around for the Big Box Shops, niche practices will start to develop. But this will also intersect with the earlier waves of disenfranchised EM and other docs who opened random niche clinics. Perhaps around this time something drastic happens. MD/DOs cease granting degrees and ARNPs inherit the land, or a flexner style report happens again, cleans house and shuts down all ARNPs, PAs and a bunch of medical schools and completely re-tools the medical sphere.

Neurology is the real winner. Because even PAs and ARNPs know that neurology is tough and few dare to enter in the first place and those who do get chewed up and spit out quickly. Neurology numbers expand that Big Box shops rejoice to know that every stroke service is adequately staffed and every outpatient clinic is adequately staffed. And although Neurology becomes the winner in this race to the bottom they are equally bitter as everyone else. Because now in the hospital they feel like a cog, meaningless rag like everyone else, and in the outpatient clinic they feel like a Psychiatrist with every single non-neurological psychosomatic complaint that gets referred to them by every ARNP elsewhere in the health system. HA of two days, see Neurology! 22yo tripped and hit their head while drunk on spring break in Cancun, no deficits or further symptoms, go see Neurology! (just to be sure...) They can't complain about filtering out BS consults because, well, they know they are truly the last to turn out the lights.
 
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My specialty (rheum) used to be in demand. You can close your eyes, pick a city (except for NYC and LA) and have multiple offers on hand. In a few short years, it's been decimated. COVID may have accelerated the decline, but honestly it was gonna happen regardless.
The south is the only place that is still somewhat open. Anywhere else is saturated within 1 hour of a metro. I entirely expect even rural jobs to be gone within the next 3 years.

Unemployed docs is not only a possibility in the coming decade... it's an inevitability.
 
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The above is the trajectory of gloom and doom. Also some hastened in a climate change fashion, where if one melting glacier some how impacts the neighbor glaciers and ice shelfs and exponentially speeds up the process. I believe this phenomena will take places as people leave the hospital glaciers and raise the out patient ocean levels, so to speak.

The silver lining in all of this is somewhere along the way there will bound to be some ticked off docs who filter into law, or filter into politics. The blend of law suits and increased legislative presence could be a source for change.
 
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