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Intuitively, I think the total lifetime cost for the insured patient with access to healthcare would be exponentially more. Most medical complaints get better within 3 weeks. The insured patient is in his doctor's office by day 3. The uninsured usually is willing to wait. Of course medical costs would be more for an insured patient, especially one with an inflated sense of entitlement.
Well, that's my point, sort of. Universal access to primary care would be very expensive and wouldn't result in the massive societal benefits that its proponents tout. It might be cheaper to say "to hell with it," pay for your own damned health care and if you can't, we'll see you in the Emergency Room or the ICU where you have no one to blame but yourself for your lifestyle choices which landed you here.
Believe me, most of what I see in the hospital is the result of some lifestyle choice or another. It was almost refreshing to have a COPD patient the other day who didn't smoke, tried to take good care of himself, but inhaled some ammonia during an industrial accident 20 years ago. If I could I'd put him to the head of the lung transplant list.
It's usually some variation of a 100 pack-year-history.
Preventative care works but only if you avail yourself of it which many who can do not.