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Since we were discussing stocks, I think we should have a discussion on options trading.
I've recently gotten into options, while the rumor is that options are dangerous and extremely risky, but the more I've read on this topic, the more it seems that options are one of the best ways to increase return while minimizing risk if used properly.
Here is an example of the kind of trading that I'm doing with some assumptions.
Assumptions:
1) I buy market price stocks on a weekly basis anyway based on a boring 3 fund portfolio for long term investments.I'm a boglehead in that regard.
2) I have a margin account that allows for significant buying power, but unless a trade goes through, margin is NOT used and interest is not charged.
3) If any of my put orders go through, I'll actually be pretty happy given the ridiculous discount compared to today.
Lets take an example - IWM ( Russell 2000 - Small cap ETF ) - Today's price 147 roughly.
You can sell a IWM put with a strike price of $50 for Dec 2022 for roughly around $130. In other words, you are saying that if the price of IWM was below $50, you will buy 100 IWM stocks for $50 each (even if the price was less than 50, you would buy it for $50). For this contract to be in place, someone is paying me$1.3 per share, or $130 per contract.
Three possible outcomes:
1) Price goes above 147 of todays price by Dec 2022- You gain $130, contract expires, you miss out on the upside of IWM because you never owned it.
2) Price stays between 50 - 147 by Dec 2022 - You gain $130, contract expires, you don't don't get any of the loss of owning IWM compared to a market order at todays price.
3) Price is below $50 on the 3rd friday of Dec 2022 - Lets say $45 (70% drop from todays price); Then You purchase $4500 worth of stock for $5000 based on the contract (100 stocks at 50/share regardless of price). You also keep the $130. So $370 unrealized loss, but what sort of buy and hold investor wouldn't want to buy IWM for $50 compared to today's price of 147. If stocks declined 66%, I'd be buying pretty aggressively anyway.
In all likelihood, the price of IWM will be above $50 at Dec 2022. If it goes below that point before Dec 2022 and then rebounds before that, it usually doesn't matter (long discussion of intrinsic and extrinsic/time value which I don't want to get into). It has to be below $50 on the exact date that the option contract expires for the PUT to go through and for you to buy 100 shares for $5000 for each contract.
Now, with those 3 outcomes in mind, here's how my trading is on steroids:
1) Weekly 2.5k of automatic buy orders of VTSAX and VTIAX in a 60/40 US vs International allocation - Monthly 10K investment. This is what every buy and hold investor normally does. Nothing fancy here. These investments negate risk of number 1 above, since you are invested in the market and participate in the upside over long term.
2) 10K of monthly investment, after buying 10K of VTSAX and VTIAX, gives an extra 10K of buying power on margin.
3) Each of the above PUT trade uses $1000 of margin buying power (not going into the math of how it requires just $1000 of buying power for the above, but that's what it does on my margin account). Now I can theoretically sell 10 of those PUTS, make $1300 on my 10k investment today (13% return today and 5.2% return annual return over 2.5 years which is duration of the PUT), while participating in the upside of tomorrow through VTSAX and VTIAX.
And honestly in all likelihood, I make this extra 5.2% annual return without ever seeing a > 66% drop in IWM and without ever any trade going through and never using any margin and never being charged interest for margin. Even in 2008-9 IWM only dropped 60% from it's peak. So lets be real, it's pretty damn unlikely that the price will be less than 50 on Dec 16th 2022.
The return can be increased significantly if you want to use 30% drop, 40% drop, 50% drop as strike price instead. I just truly felt that a strike price at 66% drop is ridiculously unlikely. so I picked that.
Worst case scenario, I buy a crap tonne of IWM at a 66% drop from todays price at margin (eh...my margin is at 2% interest anyway, so I'm okay with that too). And then I move funds around to eliminate the margin, or cash flow using my income to eliminate margin.
Thoughts? Ofcourse this can be done with VTI, SPY etc, I was just using IWM as an example. Sorry if this is complex Any other options strategy that anyone else is employing?
Full disclosure: I sold 5 PUT contracts today at the strike price of 50 for a premium of $658 that was paid to me today using the exact same strategy as above. The only downside is that I will be on the hook of buying 25K worth of IWM IF price dropped below $50 (dream price to buy for me anyway). Sold some SPY Puts with 55% discount strike prices as well and staggered the dates of the contracts to decrease risk.
I've recently gotten into options, while the rumor is that options are dangerous and extremely risky, but the more I've read on this topic, the more it seems that options are one of the best ways to increase return while minimizing risk if used properly.
Here is an example of the kind of trading that I'm doing with some assumptions.
Assumptions:
1) I buy market price stocks on a weekly basis anyway based on a boring 3 fund portfolio for long term investments.I'm a boglehead in that regard.
2) I have a margin account that allows for significant buying power, but unless a trade goes through, margin is NOT used and interest is not charged.
3) If any of my put orders go through, I'll actually be pretty happy given the ridiculous discount compared to today.
Lets take an example - IWM ( Russell 2000 - Small cap ETF ) - Today's price 147 roughly.
You can sell a IWM put with a strike price of $50 for Dec 2022 for roughly around $130. In other words, you are saying that if the price of IWM was below $50, you will buy 100 IWM stocks for $50 each (even if the price was less than 50, you would buy it for $50). For this contract to be in place, someone is paying me$1.3 per share, or $130 per contract.
Three possible outcomes:
1) Price goes above 147 of todays price by Dec 2022- You gain $130, contract expires, you miss out on the upside of IWM because you never owned it.
2) Price stays between 50 - 147 by Dec 2022 - You gain $130, contract expires, you don't don't get any of the loss of owning IWM compared to a market order at todays price.
3) Price is below $50 on the 3rd friday of Dec 2022 - Lets say $45 (70% drop from todays price); Then You purchase $4500 worth of stock for $5000 based on the contract (100 stocks at 50/share regardless of price). You also keep the $130. So $370 unrealized loss, but what sort of buy and hold investor wouldn't want to buy IWM for $50 compared to today's price of 147. If stocks declined 66%, I'd be buying pretty aggressively anyway.
In all likelihood, the price of IWM will be above $50 at Dec 2022. If it goes below that point before Dec 2022 and then rebounds before that, it usually doesn't matter (long discussion of intrinsic and extrinsic/time value which I don't want to get into). It has to be below $50 on the exact date that the option contract expires for the PUT to go through and for you to buy 100 shares for $5000 for each contract.
Now, with those 3 outcomes in mind, here's how my trading is on steroids:
1) Weekly 2.5k of automatic buy orders of VTSAX and VTIAX in a 60/40 US vs International allocation - Monthly 10K investment. This is what every buy and hold investor normally does. Nothing fancy here. These investments negate risk of number 1 above, since you are invested in the market and participate in the upside over long term.
2) 10K of monthly investment, after buying 10K of VTSAX and VTIAX, gives an extra 10K of buying power on margin.
3) Each of the above PUT trade uses $1000 of margin buying power (not going into the math of how it requires just $1000 of buying power for the above, but that's what it does on my margin account). Now I can theoretically sell 10 of those PUTS, make $1300 on my 10k investment today (13% return today and 5.2% return annual return over 2.5 years which is duration of the PUT), while participating in the upside of tomorrow through VTSAX and VTIAX.
And honestly in all likelihood, I make this extra 5.2% annual return without ever seeing a > 66% drop in IWM and without ever any trade going through and never using any margin and never being charged interest for margin. Even in 2008-9 IWM only dropped 60% from it's peak. So lets be real, it's pretty damn unlikely that the price will be less than 50 on Dec 16th 2022.
The return can be increased significantly if you want to use 30% drop, 40% drop, 50% drop as strike price instead. I just truly felt that a strike price at 66% drop is ridiculously unlikely. so I picked that.
Worst case scenario, I buy a crap tonne of IWM at a 66% drop from todays price at margin (eh...my margin is at 2% interest anyway, so I'm okay with that too). And then I move funds around to eliminate the margin, or cash flow using my income to eliminate margin.
Thoughts? Ofcourse this can be done with VTI, SPY etc, I was just using IWM as an example. Sorry if this is complex Any other options strategy that anyone else is employing?
Full disclosure: I sold 5 PUT contracts today at the strike price of 50 for a premium of $658 that was paid to me today using the exact same strategy as above. The only downside is that I will be on the hook of buying 25K worth of IWM IF price dropped below $50 (dream price to buy for me anyway). Sold some SPY Puts with 55% discount strike prices as well and staggered the dates of the contracts to decrease risk.