AAMC Applications Data

[EMedGrrl]

Data from the AAMC on applicant characteristics (read: Step 1 score) and applications (i.e. number needed to match) Apply Smart: New Data to Consider

EM data here: Apply smart in emergency medicine: New data to consider - Careers In Medicine

Good place to start before the "how many programs should I apply to?" threads start to hit in full force...

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[EMedGrrl]

CORD application guide cross-posted from @gamerEMdoc in the APD Ask Me Anything thread, for convenience.

 

[Got Em]

Data from the AAMC on applicant characteristics (read: Step 1 score) and applications (i.e. number needed to match) Apply Smart: New Data to Consider

EM data here: Apply smart in emergency medicine: New data to consider - Careers In Medicine

Good place to start before the "how many programs should I apply to?" threads start to hit in full force...

This is probably the worst data and advice I have ever seen. It states that students with a Step 1 score of 234 or more should apply to 18 programs "before reaching diminishing returns". The number of applications before reaching diminishing returns was 23 (step 1 216-233) and 32 (step 1 < 216). It then points out that students would have an 74-82% of getting into an EM residency at this point. Why would students only want a maximum of 82% chance of getting in? Also, this may confuse students into applying to only 18 programs if they have reached a score 234. Many of my classmates this past year with at least this Step score received less than 13 interviews and applied to more than 30-40 programs.

In the 2017 cycle, the average number of applications sent out was 48.4. Applicants with a lower step score often applied to > 70 programs. The AAMC data includes applications from 2010 to 2015, which fails to account for the significant increase in the average number of applications. For example in 2010, the average number of applications was only 27.0. Students would be at a severe disadvantage if they applied based on this AAMC recommendation.

 

[surely]

Agreed wholeheartedly with @Got Em . The point of diminishing returns just isn't an actionable number for applicants. Maybe my 19th application gets me less traction than my 18th in terms of my chances of matching, but it still gets me some traction, making it overall worth it.

Also want to point out that this data is taken from people who applied from 2010-2015. The ERAS data sheet says that the average number of applications in 2012 was 32.9 - If it increased to 48.4 in 2017, that's an increase of 47% over the course of those 5 years. If this new AAMC recommendation is based on data from the 2010-2015 time span, it's going to be skewed to reflect old application patterns. Potentially a pretty misleading package of data.

Last objection: The primary endpoint for the new AAMC data is "did this person match somewhere," when the primary endpoint for a lot of students is "Can I match somewhere I want to be?" Yes, we will ALL be grateful and fortunate to match even at the last program on our ROL, but...

 

[MrChance2]

It's also not just about matching into "a residency" you apply to reach middle and safety. You can have an idea but It's pretty tough to know exactly which programs are within your reach and which aren't.