The chances of receiving a MD/PhD acceptance are 43%. However, your personal chances varied depending upon your humility, prior research experiences and academic benchmarks. Even w a Lizzy of 80+, if you only apply to the questionably USNWR top 20 programs, you have a high likelihood of crashing... Every MSTP in the country has been vetted by NIH Study Sections of peer-MSTP directors. If you are productive (F30/31, quality research publications) in any of the 50+ programs, you will be getting into a top 10 program for YOUR specialty, even if it is competitive.
PM me if you need to expand your list...