There is a lot of debate going on considering the future of pharmacy and a lot of people interested in the field are uncertain of the outcome. Here is an objective economic analysis from a pharmacy student that has a degree in economics. I encourage you to read the next 2 paragraphs but if you don't want to just scroll down to my scenarios and let me know if there is anything I missed. The first 2 paragraphs are just my analysis on the problem people are hopped up about which is too many pharmacy schools opening. If you are worried about this reading those at the end will give you more hope.
1. Increasing labor supply. Skilled labor exists and gets paid a lot more because there is a barrier to entry in the field. In an unskilled labor market there is a surplus of people willing to work so they pay a much lower wage. In any labor market, skilled or unskilled, if there is a shortage of people willing to work wages offered will go up until the position is filled. If anyone could become a pharmacist online in less than two years, you can imagine what would happen to the wage of a Pharmacist. It would drop lower and lower until the payoff of becoming a pharmacist (value - cost) is equal to the payoff of the next best thing someone can do. If making a salary of $120,000/year for the cost of 6-8 years of other potential earnings and around $100,000-$250,000 in tuition does not hurt the enrollment of all these new pharmacy schools, then we can expect a surplus of pharmacists and lower wages GIVEN ALL OTHER THINGS HELD CONSTANT.
2. Pharmacy School Failure. Right now it is very easy to get into pharmacy school but high tuition prices at these new private schools will result in less attendance and eventually failure. This is already happening in lots of California schools such as California Northstate who I have heard is in serious financial trouble. If we see a drop in wages for pharmacists then you can definitely expect less people to want to go into the field, and ultimately the most expensive pharmacy schools will fail. I am not certain how far this is from happening because schools could very easily lower their standards for applicants, which in my opinion, needs some intervention.
3. Supply and Demand for Pharmacists. Healthcare, in most aspects, functions like almost no other market. With respect to new drugs or medical devices, medical innovation comes at a price that Americans pay most of due to patents protecting people's ideas from getting ripped off and sold at a cheaper price. But with respect to healthcare services from providers it is very much like any other market. So lets analyze what will happen to pharmacist supply and demand based on some very possible exogenous scenarios.
If your not an economics buff just know that increase supply will reduce price and increase quantity, whereas increase demand increases price and increases quantity.
Scenario 1: Drug demand increases. Can be due to drug prices falling (even though most drugs have very inelastic demand curves), or there might be more elderly who need them, or more needed drugs in general.
Result: More prescriptions to fill, more pharmacists demanded, higher wages offered to satisfy shortage. Rule of Compliments
Scenarios 2: New legislation allows Pharmacists to prescribe birth control.
Result: Now pharmacists are effectively a substitute for others who can prescribe (ethical issues aside) and demand would increase for pharmacists and decrease for other providers. Overall this would lower health-care costs and increase pharmacist wages as long as it doesn't result in malpractice issues.
Scenario 3: Higher Admission Standards imposed by a governing body on Pharmacy Schools due to expanding role of Pharmacist requiring higher quality students.
Result: Shortage of Pharmacists, increase in pharmacists wages, and increase in overall healthcare costs for the consumer.
Analysis: 99.9% of people don't care how pharmacists are getting paid or if they can find a job. What consumers want is cheaper or higher quality healthcare which follow an inverse relationship typically. In my opinion, cheaper healthcare is what consumers are more interested in right now and it is where pharmacists can make the biggest impact by acting as a substitute and doing things like immunizations and prescribing. Many argue prescribing causes more problems and that is a very valid argument. But being able to do these things is the only way get the governing body to invoke regulation on making new pharmacy schools. This is because an oversupply of pharmacists benefits the consumer by reducing cost of pharmacy services. So from a regulators perspective: Oh well if all pharmacists need to do is put pills in the bottle then who cares how easy it is to become one! Or: Wow if pharmacists are writing prescriptions they better be smart and therefor we should only have the best graduates possible.
In conclusion: Wages will decrease unless demand for pharmacists increases accordingly or there is an intervention on the supply. Pharmacists having more responsibilities will also be more reason for intervention on supply. Let me know your thoughts.
1. Increasing labor supply. Skilled labor exists and gets paid a lot more because there is a barrier to entry in the field. In an unskilled labor market there is a surplus of people willing to work so they pay a much lower wage. In any labor market, skilled or unskilled, if there is a shortage of people willing to work wages offered will go up until the position is filled. If anyone could become a pharmacist online in less than two years, you can imagine what would happen to the wage of a Pharmacist. It would drop lower and lower until the payoff of becoming a pharmacist (value - cost) is equal to the payoff of the next best thing someone can do. If making a salary of $120,000/year for the cost of 6-8 years of other potential earnings and around $100,000-$250,000 in tuition does not hurt the enrollment of all these new pharmacy schools, then we can expect a surplus of pharmacists and lower wages GIVEN ALL OTHER THINGS HELD CONSTANT.
2. Pharmacy School Failure. Right now it is very easy to get into pharmacy school but high tuition prices at these new private schools will result in less attendance and eventually failure. This is already happening in lots of California schools such as California Northstate who I have heard is in serious financial trouble. If we see a drop in wages for pharmacists then you can definitely expect less people to want to go into the field, and ultimately the most expensive pharmacy schools will fail. I am not certain how far this is from happening because schools could very easily lower their standards for applicants, which in my opinion, needs some intervention.
3. Supply and Demand for Pharmacists. Healthcare, in most aspects, functions like almost no other market. With respect to new drugs or medical devices, medical innovation comes at a price that Americans pay most of due to patents protecting people's ideas from getting ripped off and sold at a cheaper price. But with respect to healthcare services from providers it is very much like any other market. So lets analyze what will happen to pharmacist supply and demand based on some very possible exogenous scenarios.
If your not an economics buff just know that increase supply will reduce price and increase quantity, whereas increase demand increases price and increases quantity.
Scenario 1: Drug demand increases. Can be due to drug prices falling (even though most drugs have very inelastic demand curves), or there might be more elderly who need them, or more needed drugs in general.
Result: More prescriptions to fill, more pharmacists demanded, higher wages offered to satisfy shortage. Rule of Compliments
Scenarios 2: New legislation allows Pharmacists to prescribe birth control.
Result: Now pharmacists are effectively a substitute for others who can prescribe (ethical issues aside) and demand would increase for pharmacists and decrease for other providers. Overall this would lower health-care costs and increase pharmacist wages as long as it doesn't result in malpractice issues.
Scenario 3: Higher Admission Standards imposed by a governing body on Pharmacy Schools due to expanding role of Pharmacist requiring higher quality students.
Result: Shortage of Pharmacists, increase in pharmacists wages, and increase in overall healthcare costs for the consumer.
Analysis: 99.9% of people don't care how pharmacists are getting paid or if they can find a job. What consumers want is cheaper or higher quality healthcare which follow an inverse relationship typically. In my opinion, cheaper healthcare is what consumers are more interested in right now and it is where pharmacists can make the biggest impact by acting as a substitute and doing things like immunizations and prescribing. Many argue prescribing causes more problems and that is a very valid argument. But being able to do these things is the only way get the governing body to invoke regulation on making new pharmacy schools. This is because an oversupply of pharmacists benefits the consumer by reducing cost of pharmacy services. So from a regulators perspective: Oh well if all pharmacists need to do is put pills in the bottle then who cares how easy it is to become one! Or: Wow if pharmacists are writing prescriptions they better be smart and therefor we should only have the best graduates possible.
In conclusion: Wages will decrease unless demand for pharmacists increases accordingly or there is an intervention on the supply. Pharmacists having more responsibilities will also be more reason for intervention on supply. Let me know your thoughts.