Where I trained, it wasn't that bad, but it wasn't far from it. As the on-call fellow, I was the coach (the "resource") for the APP team. So this is already happening.
Coming from anesthesia, where there has been a lot of pessimism for years, I do realize the limits of trying to predict the future. So I have learned that there are two components to it: the technology-dependent and -independent parts. The part that is technology-dependent is futurology. AI helping out etc. We cannot predict when it will happen, just that it will happen. In 10-20-50 years, who knows when. So I don't really care about that part.
The technology-independent component depends a lot on management and Medicare. Now that part I have seen happening with clockwork precision. What management wants, management gets. These are also pretty patient individuals, who will take a decade to build something they think could save them a lot of money (because that money pays for
their salaries and bonuses). This part is what scares me. They basically went from zero to 10,000 APPs (which equals the number of intensivists) in the ICU in about a decade. (I have seen the same crap in anesthesia, zero to metastatic cancer, and it's not nice.) I also know the APP mentality, having worked with them; it's very close to what
@psychbender described above. I have had some of them push back when I wanted to change their therapeutic plan, the same way militant CRNAs do. I have even been reported for refusing to teach their students advanced critical care concepts. And APPs have just become independent in the VA, which will create a huge precedent in 5-10 years.
Again, watch that video to understand how management and Medicare think. The fact that there is a shortage of intensivists may be a good thing for us short-term, but long-term (and I mean only like 10 years) these people are working hard at minimizing the role of the intensivist (so there will actually be too many of us, the same way there are already too many anesthesiologists in certain parts of the country). Those eICU centers are popping up like mushrooms, and every such center steals the job of an intensivist for every 10 patients it covers. Dr. Buchman points out that a critical care APP can be trained much faster and can do 90% of what an intensivist does. He also points out that salaries are a big component of ICU costs (read between the lines). The only limiting factor to how fast we will be replaced is how fast they can crank out midlevels. I have already seen this in anesthesia. The hospitals are not on your side, not by a mile. They want you to "supervise" and teach midlevels for years so that, at one point, those midlevels can function independently (that's the part they don't tell you). Dr. Buchman is pretty honest about this, when he points out that he won't need intensivists to fix hypoglycemia, he will need them to write protocols (what he calls systems design, or such).
Those MGMA numbers
@CCM2017 has quoted are beautiful on paper, just almost inexistent in the parts of the country where CRNAs are multiplying like bacteria (e.g. East Coast). I have yet to meet an employed general anesthesiologist whose entire package comes even close to 400K in my area, and that's for 60+ hours of work. There is already a huge difference in income and career opportunities between the areas with few Anesthesia Care Team practices and those where ACT is predominant. So, as long as nursing schools are cranking out midlevels, this will get only worse. The major barrier is not medical knowledge or malpractice (management types couldn't care less about either), it's the production of midlevels, which is slowly taking industrial proportions. While searching for a post-fellowship job, I was told multiple times that the only reason they were looking for an anesthesiologist was the CRNA shortage. In 10 years, the ICU APPs will do to critical care what CRNAs have done and are doing to anesthesia, with
full management support.
So watch that video and learn. Anything management wants and is not limited by current technology will happen. In a decade or less. Why? Money! If you are an internist, do yourself a favor and stay in those subspecialties where patients can still choose their doctor. Otherwise, if you think hospitalists are a miserable bunch, just wait to see the intensivists in 10 years or so.
Doom and gloom... I know. Whatever you do and/or believe, just make sure your head is not in the sand.