What are my chances to get into MD/PhD programs?

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latin_sax_man

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I'm slightly concerned about my chances of getting into a MD/PhD or DO/PhD program (or really any DO or MD program) with my stats from undergrad. I'm currently applying for the 2018 cycle. I'm also wondering if my upward trend in GPA over the last two years will help my lackluster cumulative GPA.

Cum GPA: 3.51
Science GPA: 3.44
Upward Trend: 3.73 (Fr Fall), 3.04 (Fr. Spring), 3.28 (Soph. Fall), 3.44 (Soph. Spring), 3.75 (Jr. Fall), 3.72 (Jr. Spring)
MCAT: 504 (127/125/126/126)

Despite my GPA/MCAT, I think the rest of my application looks solid. I have over 2.5 years of research experience in the same lab. I got accepted into an REU at Baylor College of Medicine, presented an oral presentation at the ACS national meeting this year (6 other poster presentations and one other oral presentation besides this one), was a secretary for the Hispanic cultural club at my school, Peer Academic Advisor, have outstanding letters of recommendation, and am Hispanic. As far as clinical exposure, I have 40 shadowing hours (hopefully to be 55 by the end of the summer) and will have 12 volunteer hours at a children's hospital by the end of the summer. I'm working on my personal statements/other essays to make sure that they're absolutely perfect so that I can submit within the week.

Finally, if I don't get in this cycle, what are some ways that I can improve my chances for the next cycle?

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I don't fully know your circumstances but if I were in your shoes I'd be more than "slightly concerned."

Your GPA is definitely on the lower end for MD/PhD applicants but may be given a pass by some adcoms. However, I think your MCAT score will kill your chances for successful MD/PhD apps. 504 is not competitive for MD apps and even as a URM you will likely face rejection from most MD-only programs. MD/PhD programs typically screen out candidates based on GPA/MCAT and even if you receive a secondary from some programs, they probably will not invite you for an interview. This is irrespective of your URM status. The successful URM MD/PhD applicants I have seen have generally had GPA 3.5+ and MCAT 509+. I know much less about DO/PhD programs but you may face similar issues there.

The rest of your application looks above average among applicants but is squarely average among matriculants. Unfortunately, most adcoms probably won't even see that info because your MCAT is below screen thresholds.

If you apply this cycle and are not successful, I would without hesitation set aside 60+ days to study for and retake the MCAT. You will need to identify why you scored 504 last time and critically work towards improving your score. You cannot significantly improve your GPA at this point but an MCAT 512+ will greatly increase your chances for both MD and MD/PhD. During the remaining gap year time I would continue research and shadowing/volunteering (the latter of which is slightly weak in your current app).

I wouldn't even apply this cycle -- I'd take a gap year and focus on achieving an 8-10 point increase on MCAT to maximize chances next cycle.
 
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I'm not too familiar with the new mcat grading system...but if 504 is about a 27 I've seen URMs matriculate with stats like yours, MD and MD/PhD. Just apply broadly and be ready to retake/improve your application if you don't get in.
 
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I understand that you want to apply already but you should really retake the mcat and score 510+ to be more competitive. I know you can do it, just need to put in the work.
 
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