USMLE World and Step II, 100 Cases

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bluntdissector

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Hi.

I'm double posting this as since a search for 'usmle world step II' is likely to point to the VERY long thread, where this post will get lost, and I felt people might want to have easier access to this! Especially since that particular thread has grown SO long that people tend not to want to look past the current page...This summarizes the data nicely.

I basically just worked backwards through the 'USMLE world scores and step II scores' thread until I had 100 people's scores:



Black dots = individual scores. Red = average score for given uworld score.
The formula for the trendline is provided, which (I suppose) could be used to calculate your score. I find the data quite interesting! Quite a strong correlation, and plenty of outliers! I mean someone got like 277 with a uworld score of 69%!
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I like the results that people have posted in this thread, but I'm a bit concerned about self-selection bias... is there anybody who has found that the predictor was way off the mark?

For instance, when I took Step 1, most predictors (including NBME 12, the DIT "predictive test", and most UW conversion formulas) put me in the ~250 range. I ended up with a 227.

I'm sitting at 74% on UW, 244 on UWSA (about a month ago, at which point my UW score was 70%), and 253 on NBME 4 (after another month of studying post-UWSA). If my Step 1 score is any indication, I'm on par for a score of 230.
 
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UWorld 81% first pass

Real deal 270


formula worked for me as well


with regards to selection bias comment:
Perfectly understandable

Perhaps this prediction formula should be prefaced with something that is common to everyone who contributed?

e.g. "This formula only holds true if you prepared UWorld after such and such amount of reading of such and such sources."
 
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Another data point: UW 73% (First pass, random timed unused). Graph prediction was 262.
Real Deal is 250. Sorry to be a dissapointment guys, but I may have brought down your linear regression now.
 
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Data point: 67% UWorld first pass tutor mode by section. Score- upper 240s.... almost dead on for me. After lerking around here and reading these threads I thought it may not hold true for me since I did tutor mode and by section, but guess I was wrong.
 
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Formula said 265 for me (74%). Real thing was 242. I wonder if I'm just a nervous test-taker (I had the same problem on Step I) or if there's some self-reporting bias here.
 
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77% on Uworld first pass

Predicted score: 270
Actual score: 272

Buddy of mine had a 76% on Uworld
Real score: 263

Third buddy with 80% overall virgin Uworld
Real score: 278
 
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usmle world is really helpfull , even i passed step 2 , i am using it for step 3 thjanks
 
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has this been accurate for any more people recently. Just wondering because I have a 74% overall in UW which predicts a really high score for me but I feel like I don't know nearly half of the material that I need. May be I'm just panicking because my test so soon, but I just need to know if I'm in good shape to get a 250+

Thank you to all that reply
 
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Hi guys, my USMLE step 2 CK is next week.
UW qbank used 73%. Overall average:63% Last 10: 67%
UWSA: 240
NBME2: 233
NBME4: 208 :(
I am very nervous about my exam. Any thoughts if i should take another NBME?
THANK YOU!!
 
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mamb said:
Hi guys, my USMLE step 2 CK is next week.
UW qbank used 73%. Overall average:63% Last 10: 67%
UWSA: 240
NBME2: 233
NBME4: 208 :(
I am very nervous about my exam. Any thoughts if i should take another NBME?
THANK YOU!!
Click to expand...

Sounds like your NBME 4 might have been a fluke, if you're going to take another nbme take form 6 but DO NOT take form 3
 
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72% Uworld (first pass, timed, 44 question blocks, by subject) predicted 262
NBME 4 (taken 1 week prior to actual) 260

Actual 257
 
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2v1ueq9.png




Please fill out the form below in order to gather all exam experiences all in one place



https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1wbojdSMWcxGCZ5Y3D2BjNQDF3dHGKd7-in0C9buFZHo/viewform



The Table above is the Scatter-plot for the data entered so far



Thanks,



Saman
 
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septoplasty said:
*sigh*.

Anyone think the correlation is still strong as of now, meaning 2 years later?
Click to expand...

Yes. I just got my Step 2 CK in today

UWorld Avg: 70%, only got through half of it before Step 2
Step 2 CK: 254

The best fit line overestimated me to about 257 and the actual average (red dot) was spot on! Kudos for a very cool "study!"
 
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bluntdissector said:
Hi.

I'm double posting this as since a search for 'usmle world step II' is likely to point to the VERY long thread, where this post will get lost, and I felt people might want to have easier access to this! Especially since that particular thread has grown SO long that people tend not to want to look past the current page...This summarizes the data nicely.

I basically just worked backwards through the 'USMLE world scores and step II scores' thread until I had 100 people's scores:



Black dots = individual scores. Red = average score for given uworld score.
The formula for the trendline is provided, which (I suppose) could be used to calculate your score. I find the data quite interesting! Quite a strong correlation, and plenty of outliers! I mean someone got like 277 with a uworld score of 69%!
Click to expand...


When you're talking about uworld score, do you mean the total average amount they have correct in all of their total questions or you mean uwsa score?
 
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hi all... i have a question ... my husband has done his MD from country other than US... its been 5 years now.. he has failed his step 2... and he is again preparing to take his steps now.... i just want to know that after this much gap, what are the chances that he will get residency if he scores good now?
 
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Kim Kaur said:
hi all... i have a question ... my husband has done his MD from country other than US... its been 5 years now.. he has failed his step 2... and he is again preparing to take his steps now.... i just want to know that after this much gap, what are the chances that he will get residency if he scores good now?
Click to expand...

It is still possible to get a residency in a non-competitive field in an undesirable location if he shows significant improvement on his retake exam.
 
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Dr. USMLE said:
It is still possible to get a residency in a non-competitive field in an undesirable location if he shows significant improvement on his retake exam.
Click to expand...
thank u for replying ...
Dr. USMLE said:
It is still possible to get a residency in a non-competitive field in an undesirable location if he shows significant improvement on his retake exam.
Click to expand...
thanks for replying...and can u plz tell me what all fields are considered non-competitive?
 
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Kim Kaur said:
thank u for replying ...

thanks for replying...and can u plz tell me what all fields are considered non-competitive?
Click to expand...

Sure. Family medicine, psychiatry, internal medicine, pediatrics, neurology and pathology are the most realistic.

Depending on his scores and the rest of his application, he may also have a decent shot at ob-gyn, physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R), and general surgery.
 
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Dr. USMLE said:
Sure. Family medicine, psychiatry, internal medicine, pediatrics, neurology and pathology are the most realistic.

Depending on his scores and the rest of his application, he may also have a decent shot at ob-gyn, physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R), and general surgery.
Click to expand...
thanks a lot!!
 
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While the Step 1 correlation was great for all test-takers, I'm not so sure how useful the Step 2 CK one would be for FMGs like myself. We don't have shelves or core clerkships, and I'm going to pass thru UWorld 6 weeks before my actual exam. So if I do it then on Timed-Random, I'm likely to score lower than AMGs who used UWorld by subject while studying for shelves even if by the end, we score the same on Step 2.
 
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adrenergic91 said:
While the Step 1 correlation was great for all test-takers, I'm not so sure how useful the Step 2 CK one would be for FMGs like myself. We don't have shelves or core clerkships, and I'm going to pass thru UWorld 6 weeks before my actual exam. So if I do it then on Timed-Random, I'm likely to score lower than AMGs who used UWorld by subject while studying for shelves even if by the end, we score the same on Step 2.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that US students also usually have shelf exams during the basic science years. Many US students also use UWorld for Step 1 as they are going through the first 2 years of medical school.

On that basis, your comments about AMGs doing shelfs and UWorld before dedicated studying is not necessarily different for Step 2 versus Step 1.
 
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Dr. USMLE said:
Keep in mind that US students also usually have shelf exams during the basic science years. Many US students also use UWorld for Step 1 as they are going through the first 2 years of medical school.

On that basis, your comments about AMGs doing shelfs and UWorld before dedicated studying is not necessarily different for Step 2 versus Step 1.
Click to expand...

I am most active on Reddit's /r/medicalschool, so I might be biased in my views about US Medical students, but most people there strongly suggest to reserve UWorld for dedicated 5-6 weeks.
 
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