Radiology is oversupplied

[808s&heartbreak]

Supply/Demand in Radiology: A Historical Perspective and Comparison to other Labor Markets. - PubMed - NCBI

Thoughts?

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[meister]

Of course. And with initial augmentation by AI it'll get worse. But the awfulness of the destruction it'll bring won't be felt by those at the levers of power so c'est la vie.

 

[medgator]

"Conversely, other specialties have maintained their proportion of domestic graduates by way of limited supply or implicit demand."

Maybe they were talking about derm, because rad onc has increased positions by over 50% in the last decade with no end in sight.

I'd imagine the geographic availability is probably still better in rads than RO, putting aside salary, job quality etc

 

[tennischamp822]

Heard a rumor that radiology PDs used the IR split to add more spots. Instead of converting DR spots to IR spots, the PDs just added IR spots to their existing programs. Does anyone know if that rumor is actually true?

 

[808s&heartbreak]

All this time we were speculating about AI, when in fact radiology is slowly commoditized from within.

 

[harambe4ever]

"Conversely, other specialties have maintained their proportion of domestic graduates by way of limited supply or implicit demand."

Maybe they were talking about derm, because rad onc has increased positions by over 50% in the last decade with no end in sight.

I'd imagine the geographic availability is probably still better in rads than RO, putting aside salary, job quality etc

This is a common misconception regarding derm not increasing their residency spots.

Rads 2001 total spots: 875
Rads 2008 total spots: 1,043
Rads 2017 total spots: 1,090
~25% expansion from 2001 to 2017
Although to be fair, 124 IR spots matched in 2017 which would bring the bring the expansion to about ~39%

Derm 2001 total spots: 262
Derm 2008 total spots: 320
Derm 2016 total spots: 463
~77% expansion from 2001 to 2017

I think this shows the health of a specialty is multifactorial and not primarily based on the expansion of residency spots but based on the demand per graduating resident. Radiology could have 2,000 or 3,000 or 4,000 graduates a year if the market supported it, but it won't. Derm is still doing fairly well but if the market only needs 350 graduating dermatology residents a year then their job market will suffer as well. We can't just say, "Stupid radiology leadership. Derm has it figured out" because they don't. There is just more demand per graduating resident in derm compared to rads (as alluded to in the paper) but both specialties have increased residency spots.

 

[harambe4ever]

Heard a rumor that radiology PDs used the IR split to add more spots. Instead of converting DR spots to IR spots, the PDs just added IR spots to their existing programs. Does anyone know if that rumor is actually true?

2016
DR spots: 1,168
IR spots: 14

2017
DR spots: 1,090
IR spots: 125

So in 2017, 78 DR spots were taken away and 111 IR spots were added for a net gain of 33 positions.

 

[tennischamp822]

2016
DR spots: 1,168
IR spots: 14

2017
DR spots: 1,090
IR spots: 125

So in 2017, 78 DR spots were taken away and 111 IR spots were added for a net gain of 33 positions.

Thanks for the data

 

[RadsFTW123]

Heard a rumor that radiology PDs used the IR split to add more spots. Instead of converting DR spots to IR spots, the PDs just added IR spots to their existing programs. Does anyone know if that rumor is

Deleted

 

[Doctor D]

That study is a year old and relies on old data. The current market is improving and fellows are getting more job offers. Markets can change rapidly and medical students should be wary of choosing a specialty based on the job market.

 

[medgator]

That study is a year old and relies on old data. The current market is improving and fellows are getting more job offers. Markets can change rapidly and medical students should be wary of choosing a specialty based on the job market.

Tell that to pathology.... secular trends can reduce demand for services.

Another example is rad onc... Radiation is going towards less and less number of treatments for a number of sites, and omitting radiation in certain scenarios, meaning less demand for rad onc labor

 

[DrfluffyMD]

I think we are overtraining radiologists. Some of the smaller programs offer very few teaching opportunities.

 

[RadsFTW123]

Agreed... it's important to remember that multiple good offers is NORMAL for nearly all specialties. We should not be happy with the current market, as this is the lowest a medical job market should ever be. And totally agree, we have multiple fellows from small programs and they're lack of exposure to procedures, complex pathology is embarrassing. And these grads are the ones that are forced to allow places like Sheridan, RadPartners and other crappy outfits to profit off radiologists because they don't have better options.

 

[Doctor D]

That is true. There are many "private practice" type residencies where there is little accountability for residents unless they are covering overnight call (so the group doesn't)

 

[doctalaughs]

This is a common misconception regarding derm not increasing their residency spots.

Rads 2001 total spots: 875
Rads 2008 total spots: 1,043
Rads 2017 total spots: 1,090
~25% expansion from 2001 to 2017
Although to be fair, 124 IR spots matched in 2017 which would bring the bring the expansion to about ~39%

Derm 2001 total spots: 262
Derm 2008 total spots: 320
Derm 2016 total spots: 463
~77% expansion from 2001 to 2017

I think this shows the health of a specialty is multifactorial and not primarily based on the expansion of residency spots but based on the demand per graduating resident. Radiology could have 2,000 or 3,000 or 4,000 graduates a year if the market supported it, but it won't. Derm is still doing fairly well but if the market only needs 350 graduating dermatology residents a year then their job market will suffer as well. We can't just say, "Stupid radiology leadership. Derm has it figured out" because they don't. There is just more demand per graduating resident in derm compared to rads (as alluded to in the paper) but both specialties have increased residency spots.

Agree. I'm a dermatologist and the academic leaders have no "master plan," and have been expanding too rapidly.

This has affected the dermatology market for those graduating, and increased competition particularly for mohs, dermpath and cosmetics.

That being said, the market is still "pretty good" for new graduates compared to other specialties, because there was a ton of growing demand and it's a small specialty.

But there's no question the job market is worse than 15 years ago (more consolidation, predatory partners etc).


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[SageRad]

My experience has been that the radiology job market (and physician job market, more generally) tends to be cyclical. When things look bleakest, it is probably the best time to enter that field (assuming, of course, that is what you want to do).

Specific to radiology, on the heels of a secular bull stock market, I see the potential for two generations of rads to nearly simultaneously be exiting their careers, the baby boomers and the GenXers.

 

[DrfluffyMD]

My experience has been that the radiology job market (and physician job market, more generally) tends to be cyclical. When things look bleakest, it is probably the best time to enter that field (assuming, of course, that is what you want to do).

Specific to radiology, on the heels of a secular bull stock market, I see the potential for two generations of rads to nearly simultaneously be exiting their careers, the baby boomers and the GenXers.

Indeed, when I matched, I matched at a large midwest community program with a step score that I was told only 60 or so applicant have IN THE WHOLE COUNTRY just two years later in the 2015 match.

Buy low, sell high.

 

[Cognovi]

Indeed, when I matched, I matched at a large midwest community program with a step score that I was told only 60 or so applicant have IN THE WHOLE COUNTRY just two years later in the 2015 match.

Buy low, sell high.

Did you score >255?

 

[DrfluffyMD]

Did you score >255?

Yep