Late to the game (FMG) but I just got my score back and thought I could contribute.
Reading about other people's experience on here helped me a lot in terms of motivation during dedicated time.
Real thing: 260-265
Offline:
NBME 12 : 80% ~ 225 (pre Rx)
NBME 13 : 90,6% ~ 250 (pre-UW)
NBME 15 : 92,96% ~ 257 (6.5 weeks out)
NBME 16 : 91,5% ~ 254 (5.5 weeks out)
Online:
UWSA 1 : 271 (4 weeks out)
NBME 17 : 254 (3 weeks out)
UWSA 2 : 258 (2 weeks out)
NBME 18 : 256 (8 days out)
Free 150 : 96% correct (5 days out) ~265(?)… felt much easier than the real deal, but turned out to be the most accurate predictor…
USMLE-Rx: 85%, first pass, random tutor & random timed
Uworld: 85%, first pass, timed random
I'm not sure in what way my preparation is applicable to the average US student, so I'll start with a few disclaimers:
FMG from a pretty decent european medical school, did well in classes throughout (not extraordinary, but well above average).
Had 7 weeks of dedicated preparation time during term break.
I also have family and work responsibilities, so I knew beforehand that I couldn't study for more than maybe 8 or 9 hours a day (9-5 and 1-2 hrs in the evening) with at least 1 day off a week.
During the 2 months before dedicated period I had some relative down-time for a research project so I went through USMLERx and did a pass of FA and a 2nd pass of Pathoma and Sketchy (did a first pass during the school year).
During my dedicated period I did 1.5x UW, a pass through Sketchy Micro and another pass though the general principles section of FA. I also kept doing the bro's anki cards (aroung 150-200 a day), as well as flash cards I made on UW facts I felt were important.
I didn't do another full pass of FA or Pathoma, mostly because I didn't want to water down my efforts (ie. not enough time to do it properly).
I also hated sitting down and reading FA and feel that I got much more out of doing flash cards and questions.
Keep in mind, that I already had a pretty good grasp of most topics in FA due to the prior passes and the anki deck (see my initial NBME scores).
Overall, I felt that NBME 17 and 18 were the closest to how the test felt. I'd recommend 18 for sure, as it has some of those long-ish vignettes with unnecessary lab results and such.
Sorry for the long-winded post. Hope it helps somebody.