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Its the problem that I stated before, it is a retrospective cohort study. This means you are looking backward in time and finding out if MCAT scores correlate with USMLE scores. It is a weaker end of the spectrum in terms of type of study. What you are stating above is more of a randomize study, which tries to control the variables that can be confounders. This is much much more powerful of a study than all the retrospective studies these medical schools push-out. However, it is extremely unpractical (people vary in habits) thus difficult to carry out. Part of my issue is that there has been no study, which I have read, that has convinced me that MCAT scores relate to USMLE success. This is mostly due to weaker study design (not much they can do, but at least a prospective cohort study should be possible) and calculations (they were lazy with their calculations).
However, it doesn't mean I don't think there is some predictive value. The problem is that we don't know what about the MCAT correlates with success in UMSLE. As it stands, I did rather poorly on the MCAT (<26, studied my ass off), but I'm currently in the top 1/4 of my class. Now based on the MCAT I should do poorly when USMLE times comes around, but based on my clinical grades I should do okay on the USMLE. Now which should I believe more?
I think thats when you have to look internally. What kind of studying did you do? Did you do enough practice tests? Did you learn the test itself? Maybe you had something distracting going on? Are you a good standardized test taker?
Nothing against you but you seem smart and are obviously hard working, so I'd hate to the same thing happen on your Step 1.