DOs with 30+ MCATs?

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I got a 512 on the MCAT, my science GPA was a 3.18, my cumulative was like a 3.3.

I am going to DO mainly because I wasn't accepted into an MD program. However, I've learned a lot about the history of osteopathic medicine and its philosophies and I think that it has a lot to offer. I suspect that after 4 years of indoctrination I will be saying that I would do DO again over going MD, if I had the chance. I'm a skeptical person, and I'm skeptical of much of manipulative therapy, but over time I'm increasingly convinced that there is true value in it. I think there is also a lot of mumbo jumbo that needs to be dismantled. Science has to back up the benefits of OMT in a concrete way and I'm confident that eventually it will. I know a neurosurgeon and an orthopod (both MDs) who are both convinced there is serious value to spinal manipulation. The orthopod told me to "Keep an open mind about spinal manipulation, but not so open that your brains fall out."
 
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I got a 512 on the MCAT, my science GPA was a 3.18, my cumulative was like a 3.3.

I am going to DO mainly because I wasn't accepted into an MD program. However, I've learned a lot about the history of osteopathic medicine and its philosophies and I think that it has a lot to offer. I suspect that after 4 years of indoctrination I will be saying that I would do DO again over going MD, if I had the chance. I'm a skeptical person, and I'm skeptical of much of manipulative therapy, but over time I'm increasingly convinced that there is true value in it. I think there is also a lot of mumbo jumbo that needs to be dismantled. Science has to back up the benefits of OMT in a concrete way and I'm confident that eventually it will. I know a neurosurgeon and an orthopod (both MDs) who are both convinced there is serious value to spinal manipulation. The orthopod told me to "Keep an open mind about spinal manipulation, but not so open that your brains fall out."

This.
 
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I got a 512 on the MCAT, my science GPA was a 3.18, my cumulative was like a 3.3.

I am going to DO mainly because I wasn't accepted into an MD program. However, I've learned a lot about the history of osteopathic medicine and its philosophies and I think that it has a lot to offer. I suspect that after 4 years of indoctrination I will be saying that I would do DO again over going MD, if I had the chance. I'm a skeptical person, and I'm skeptical of much of manipulative therapy, but over time I'm increasingly convinced that there is true value in it. I think there is also a lot of mumbo jumbo that needs to be dismantled. Science has to back up the benefits of OMT in a concrete way and I'm confident that eventually it will. I know a neurosurgeon and an orthopod (both MDs) who are both convinced there is serious value to spinal manipulation. The orthopod told me to "Keep an open mind about spinal manipulation, but not so open that your brains fall out."

I was really interested in OMT until I realized I would be wasting 200 hours of just class time that our MD counterparts are using to study for more important things, or playing video games.
 
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I'm love puzzles!

You said "close to 30" which I'm going to assume means 29 point something, which sounds like a midwestern, I think AZ is more like a 28, so my guess is you're at CCOM! Damn man, I hope you have a really fluffy coat.
AZCOM is actually 30
 
By the way...just because a school has a high incoming MCAT average does not mean that they are a better school than others. There are many schools with sub-30 MCAT scores that have killed it in the boards department.
 
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By the way...just because a school has a high incoming MCAT average does not mean that they are a better school than others. There are many schools with sub-30 MCAT scores that have killed it in the boards department.

Yup. It's a common rookie mistake.
 
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Yup. It's a common rookie mistake.
Eh. It's not a terrible statistical generalization. Didn't RVU have the highest MCAT average and a really solid USMLE average this year (~230)?
 
Eh. It's not a terrible statistical generalization. Didn't RVU have the highest MCAT average and a really solid USMLE average this year (~230)?

Nah, they have a good MCAT average but it's like 28 or so. Not quite up there with the Touros and Midwesterns. They did do extremely well on boards this last year though. A current student told me they had a higher average than CU by like a point or something. Like 229 to 228, although it is just what I was told and it may not be true.
 
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Eh. It's not a terrible statistical generalization. Didn't RVU have the highest MCAT average and a really solid USMLE average this year (~230)?

No. The Touros and AZCOM usually have pretty high (30+) MCAT averages, but I've never heard anything on here about their boards being out of the ordinary.


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Eh. It's not a terrible statistical generalization. Didn't RVU have the highest MCAT average and a really solid USMLE average this year (~230)?

You're making that same mistake. The reason why their board scores are so high is because their curriculum is geared toward the USMLE boards (they are all required to take them) and the systems are learned twice over.
 
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Eh. It's not a terrible statistical generalization. Didn't RVU have the highest MCAT average and a really solid USMLE average this year (~230)?

Do you know the MCAT average for those students that are responsible for the today board scores? 25-26 MCAT average bc RVU was considered the trash of DOs 3-4 years ago.
 
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Eh. It's not a terrible statistical generalization. Didn't RVU have the highest MCAT average and a really solid USMLE average this year (~230)?

Your MCAT score has zero correlation to your Step 1 or how well you will do in medical school. The only correlation is a substandard MCAT like below 24-25 on the old scale indicates a high chance of failing some preclinical classes during 1st year.
 
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This will go well....

I am going DO because my 18 year old self crapped all over my GPA. By the time I got it together and figured out what I wanted the damage was done. I don't really care about the letters and I am confident that the school I am going to will allow me to pursue the specialty I want if I work for it. I am extremely happy that I will be a doctor.

See above. With people in similar situations, you need to ask yourself one question: Do you want to be a doctor? If the answer is yes, go DO. If your answer is YES but you don't want to be a DO? Sorry, medicine isn't what you're truly after. :(
 
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Your MCAT score has zero correlation to your Step 1 or how well you will do in medical school. The only correlation is a substandard MCAT like below 24-25 on the old scale indicates a high chance of failing some preclinical classes during 1st year.

http://med-ed-online.net/index.php/meo/article/view/31795

"Overall, the results of this study are consistent with previous literature that shows that MCAT scores are predictive of performance on the USMLE Step 1 and USMLE Step 2 CK exams."
 
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Nah, they have a good MCAT average but it's like 28 or so. Not quite up there with the Touros and Midwesterns. They did do extremely well on boards this last year though. A current student told me they had a higher average than CU by like a point or something. Like 229 to 228, although it is just what I was told and it may not be true.
Gotcha. I must have remembered the USMLE results but not the correct MCAT.
 
Your MCAT score has zero correlation to your Step 1 or how well you will do in medical school. The only correlation is a substandard MCAT like below 24-25 on the old scale indicates a high chance of failing some preclinical classes during 1st year.
I've heard differently. Especially pertaining to VR.
 
You're making that same mistake. The reason why their board scores are so high is because their curriculum is geared toward the USMLE boards (they are all required to take them) and the systems are learned twice over.
I'm making any mistake. I've taken the MCAT, USMLE, and am not in the process of picking between schools based off anything. I simply misremembered RVU's average MCAT.
 
I got a 30 on the MCAT, and had a pretty good gpa 3.68 from a very solid degree.

I got waitlisted at the local MD school, apparently my extracurriculars weren't as good as others.

Also, I am a middle class white male with no family legacy (no one in my family is a doctor)

MSU let me in very early on in the cycle and I was very excited to accept the offer, and I have been nothing but happy since.

I think that there is just a lot of competition from very competitive applicants, it's not just about the grades, it's about the whole package. Everyone who applies has good grades, everyone who applies are exceptional people. When I got to school I was amazed at the resume's of many of my fellow applicants. The places they had been, the the things that they had done. A medical school class represents the cream of the crop of society, and that was at a DO school, which is supposed to be less exceptional than the MD school.....the thing is though, there really isn't much of a gap at all

Now that I am almost done with residency, the idea of MD vs DO seems so far gone for me. It used to think it mattered, but the longer you practice, the more you realize that the difference between MD and DO exists only in the minds of pre-meds and pre-clerkship med students.
 
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I got a 30 on the MCAT, and had a pretty good gpa 3.68 from a very solid degree.

I got waitlisted at the local MD school, apparently my extracurriculars weren't as good as others.

Also, I am a middle class white male with no family legacy (no one in my family is a doctor)

MSU let me in very early on in the cycle and I was very excited to accept the offer, and I have been nothing but happy since.

I think that there is just a lot of competition from very competitive applicants, it's not just about the grades, it's about the whole package. Everyone who applies has good grades, everyone who applies are exceptional people. When I got to school I was amazed at the resume's of many of my fellow applicants. The places they had been, the the things that they had done. A medical school class represents the cream of the crop of society, and that was at a DO school, which is supposed to be less exceptional than the MD school.....the thing is though, there really isn't much of a gap at all

Now that I am almost done with residency, the idea of MD vs DO seems so far gone for me. It used to think it mattered, but the longer you practice, the more you realize that the difference between MD and DO exists only in the minds of pre-meds and pre-clerkship med students.
Nice post.
I would just say that because program directors do care it can definitely exist in more than just pre med and medical students. It can truly be a barrier to becoming the kind of physician you want which have can career long effects.
 
I think that the COMs will learn the hard way that beggars can't be choosy, and that they simply can't afford to turn their noses up at people with a few Cs in Orgo and Physics but otherwise great transcripts.


This thread shows how MD schools are missing out on great applicants that turned things around, now AACOM wants to follow suit? I thought the whole point of grade replacement was rewarding reinvention.

He stole my line!!
I got a 512 on the MCAT, my science GPA was a 3.18, my cumulative was like a 3.3.

I am going to DO mainly because I wasn't accepted into an MD program. However, I've learned a lot about the history of osteopathic medicine and its philosophies and I think that it has a lot to offer. I suspect that after 4 years of indoctrination I will be saying that I would do DO again over going MD, if I had the chance. I'm a skeptical person, and I'm skeptical of much of manipulative therapy, but over time I'm increasingly convinced that there is true value in it. I think there is also a lot of mumbo jumbo that needs to be dismantled. Science has to back up the benefits of OMT in a concrete way and I'm confident that eventually it will. I know a neurosurgeon and an orthopod (both MDs) who are both convinced there is serious value to spinal manipulation. The orthopod told me to "Keep an open mind about spinal manipulation, but not so open that your brains fall out."[/QUOTE]


True, but give a little more credit to incoming DO students; they know what they're getting into, and are OK with mostly going into Primary Care, IM, PM&R, or Psych. But 1/3rd of all DO students do specialize (about 40% of my kids), and even 7% of neurosurgery PDs will often rank and interview DOs. Most of my students self-select for my school because we like Primary Care. How do we know this? We ask them at graduation, when there's no impetus for them to lie in order to impress people, or self-delude.


Nice post.
I would just say that because program directors do care it can definitely exist in more than just pre med and medical students. It can truly be a barrier to becoming the kind of physician you want which have can career long effects.
 
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I'd like to see some confidence intervals, because having a p value and straight up chi-square value is not good enough in my book.

Yeah I found that in about 7 seconds from a Google search. I'm sure I could find the other referenced studies.

Are you really not convinced that higher MCATs yield higher board scores? Is it really that hard to believe that students who are exceptional standardized test-takers will still be exceptional standardized test-takers a few years later? And that poor test-takers are still poor test-takers?

I'd love to see some evidence that MCAT scores have nor correlation to board scores (good luck). Until then I'll side with the common sense and (weak) evidence.
 
Yeah I found that in about 7 seconds from a Google search. I'm sure I could find the other referenced studies.

Are you really not convinced that higher MCATs yield higher board scores? Is it really that hard to believe that students who are exceptional standardized test-takers will still be exceptional standardized test-takers a few years later? And that poor test-takers are still poor test-takers?

I'd love to see some evidence that MCAT scores have nor correlation to board scores (good luck). Until then I'll side with the common sense and (weak) evidence.

Yet is so hard to find one that does include confidence intervals. It's a weakness of a lot of studies in medicine. There are definitely ways to calculate chi-square confidence intervals, why don't they do it?

Most studies show only a moderate correlation and they are also retrospective in nature. This study doesn't even show a regression analysis of board scores to MCAT scores. Knowing a lot of these things would make me less skeptical. It doesn't mean there isn't predictive value, but not as much as most members here claim.
 
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Yeah I found that in about 7 seconds from a Google search. I'm sure I could find the other referenced studies.

Are you really not convinced that higher MCATs yield higher board scores? Is it really that hard to believe that students who are exceptional standardized test-takers will still be exceptional standardized test-takers a few years later? And that poor test-takers are still poor test-takers?

I'd love to see some evidence that MCAT scores have nor correlation to board scores (good luck). Until then I'll side with the common sense and (weak) evidence.

17% variance, bro. Weak study. I would laugh at the clowns administering this study and pushing this propaganda. One key highlight here:

Out of the medical students with 35+ MCAT, only 17% of them score 245+ on the Step 1.

Why are these good test-takers so bad at taking the Step 1 then? considering that 83% of them score lower than a 245.
 
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My school has done it's own research of our students from the last 10 years and found that MCAT had no correlation to our board scores. Grades in med school, however, was a very good indicator with very few outliers.

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They probably have as much correlation as SAT to MCAT, which is to say, if you already got into med school the correlation is utterly meaningless.
 
34T back in the day when you got a writing score. (I only mention it because T means I got two different graders to give me a perfect score on both essays. That feels good)

Went to DO because 1) I can't do physics and was carrying a C- and C+ from physics 1 and 2 with me. 2) my MD acceptances were all in the Midwest, more on that in a second 3) I have two doctor in my family, an MD and a DO and they are both ophthalmologist and don't work together (so no family favors or nepotism) and both had equal success entirely on their own merits without degree mattering and 4) I had serious family stuff come up just before I had to make my decision that made me want to stay close to home, so the acceptance in NYC was appealing.
 
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34T back in the day when you got a writing score. (I only mention it because T means I got two different graders to give me a perfect score on both essays. That feels good)

Went to DO because 1) I can't do physics and was carrying a C- and C+ from physics 1 and 2 with me. 2) my MD acceptances were all in the Midwest, more on that in a second 3) I have two doctor in my family, an MD and a DO and they are both ophthalmologist and don't work together (so no family favors or nepotism) and both had equal success entirely on their own merits without degree mattering and 4) I had serious family stuff come up just before I had to make my decision that made me want to stay close to home, so the acceptance in NYC was appealing.
If you didn't have personal reasons I would say that you made the wrong decision
But the right decision is whichever one makes you happy
 
If you didn't have personal reasons I would say that you made the wrong decision
But the right decision is whichever one makes you happy

Nah. I did better as a DO than I would have as an MD. Matched as good as my accomplishments dictate I should and I may have matched slightly better than I deserve because I was a NYer matching to a NY program that knew I'd fit in and enjoy nyc, which may not have been true if I was coming from.nebraska
 
Nah. I did better as a DO than I would have as an MD. Matched as good as my accomplishments dictate I should and I may have matched slightly better than I deserve because I was a NYer matching to a NY program that knew I'd fit in and enjoy nyc, which may not have been true if I was coming from.nebraska
Oh nice
 
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MCAT: 32
GPA: 3.94

Why I chose DO? I didn't get into any MD schools.
 
Once you've actually started medical school and seen medical school material you will realize the mcat is completely worthless. Until then, you really don't have a leg to stand on because you have 0 clue what you are talking about.

btw, nice status, pre-med.


Lol.
 

I think you should take a closer look at the study you cited...

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the associations and predictive values of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) component and composite scores prior to 2015 with U.S. Medical Licensure Exam (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores, with a focus on whether students scoring low on the MCAT were particularly likely to continue to score low on the USMLE exams.

Method: Multiple linear regression, correlation, and chi-square analyses were performed to determine the relationship between MCAT component and composite scores and USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores from five graduating classes (2011–2015) at the University of Minnesota Medical School (N=1,065).

Results: The multiple linear regression analyses were both significant (p<0.001). The three MCAT component scores together explained 17.7% of the variance in Step 1 scores (p<0.001) and 12.0% of the variance in Step 2 CK scores (p<0.001). In the chi-square analyses, significant, albeit weak associations were observed between almost all MCAT component scores and USMLE scores (Cramer’s V ranged from 0.05 to 0.24).

Discussion: Each of the MCAT component scores was significantly associated with USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores, although the effect size was small. Being in the top or bottom scoring range of the MCAT exam was predictive of being in the top or bottom scoring range of the USMLE exams, although the strengths of the associations were weak to moderate. These results indicate that MCAT scores are predictive of student performance on the USMLE exams, but, given the small effect sizes, should be considered as part of the holistic view of the student.
 
Once you've actually started medical school and seen medical school material you will realize the mcat is completely worthless. Until then, you really don't have a leg to stand on because you have 0 clue what you are talking about.

btw, nice status, pre-med.

Kind of getting sick of accepted medical students plastering the "med-student status" and showing off how smart they are when they don't have a clue about what they're saying...
 
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I think you should take a closer look at the study you cited...

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the associations and predictive values of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) component and composite scores prior to 2015 with U.S. Medical Licensure Exam (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores, with a focus on whether students scoring low on the MCAT were particularly likely to continue to score low on the USMLE exams.

Method: Multiple linear regression, correlation, and chi-square analyses were performed to determine the relationship between MCAT component and composite scores and USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores from five graduating classes (2011–2015) at the University of Minnesota Medical School (N=1,065).

Results: The multiple linear regression analyses were both significant (p<0.001). The three MCAT component scores together explained 17.7% of the variance in Step 1 scores (p<0.001) and 12.0% of the variance in Step 2 CK scores (p<0.001). In the chi-square analyses, significant, albeit weak associations were observed between almost all MCAT component scores and USMLE scores (Cramer’s V ranged from 0.05 to 0.24).

Discussion: Each of the MCAT component scores was significantly associated with USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores, although the effect size was small. Being in the top or bottom scoring range of the MCAT exam was predictive of being in the top or bottom scoring range of the USMLE exams, although the strengths of the associations were weak to moderate. These results indicate that MCAT scores are predictive of student performance on the USMLE exams, but, given the small effect sizes, should be considered as part of the holistic view of the student.
So let's take a journey into speculation land shall we?

I am about to ramp up my studying for boards. I did well on the MCAT and my preclinical grades are good, yet as you note the associations with both these are dubious and varied across schools which had/has me worried. So I started talking to 3rd and 4th years (yes I know this kind of "study" is weaker than the weak one you tore apart), and you start to notice certain trends:

1. Person who did well on the MCAT and did poorly pre-clinically assumed that they were gonna do well so they did not study enough.
2. Person who did well pre-clinically and did poor on boards usually fall into pretty specific categories
-thought their pre-clinical performance was sufficient for boards so they didn't study as much as they should have
-they couldnt keep up the work anymore and their GAF broke
-X life even happened and they pushed through it ineffectively
3. Person did well on their COMSAE and thought they were good to go and didn't study as much as they needed to.

This is not an exhaustive list, but it boils down to "person did not study as much as they needed to." It seems that as soon as a person lets the god complex set in (minus the GAF breaking and unforeseen life events) is when they begin to fail. Though this kind of information is hard to fit into a study. It would be interesting to see if you could standardize it and fit it into a study while asking the question "all things the same (study habits, resources used, time invested, preclinical grades), do MCAT scores correlate with Step 1 success?"

Thoughts?
 
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There is obviously a correlation between MCAT score and USMLE score. Its a moderate one, and there are studies with confidence intervals between them. I'm not going to spend time looking them up, but they are older studies that I read some years ago.

That said, it's kind of meaningless. The skills that make you a good test taker for the MCAT only slightly help you for the USMLE. Characteristics that make you do well on the USMLE (studied for long hours, trained yourself to have the stamina to get through long exams, planned ahead for your studying, etc.) are way more important than what your MCAT score was. Most people I know that did well on the MCAT because of a skill of standardized test taking had only a mildly easier time handling the logistics of the USMLE, but by far the people that did the best on the USMLE were those that studied the most, both throughout the pre-clinical years and during dedicated study.

I know plenty of 24/25 MCAT people that studied their tail off and got average or slightly above average USMLE scores.

...Out of the medical students with 35+ MCAT, only 17% of them score 245+ on the Step 1.

Why are these good test-takers so bad at taking the Step 1 then? considering that 83% of them score lower than a 245.

A 35 on the MCAT is way easier to get than 245. You can't compare their percentiles and say, oh a 96th percentile on the MCAT is at least the same as 93rd percentile on the USMLE. For one, the average MCAT score for US MDs is 83rd percentile.

Those test takers aren't "so bad at taking the USMLE". If a 245 is a measuring stick of being a good test taker, almost all of us suck at taking the USMLE.

-Edited for outdated info

Now again, it's meaningless to each of you as individuals. Actual study time has a much greater influence on USMLE scores.
 
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I don't want to burst any bubbles, but a 245 isn't impressing anyone anymore. With the advent of board prep material and the increasing focus of medical schools on teaching to the board exam, the average USMLE scores have gone up quite rapidly, even from when I went through medical school not that many years ago. It does seem that the NBME is aware of it though and the scores have leveled off somewhat.

For example, a 245 is more like 76th percentile and not 93rd as mentioned. 93rd percentile would be around a 257-258.

http://www.usmle.org/pdfs/transcripts/USMLE_Step_Examination_Score_Interpretation_Guidelines.pdf
 
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So let's take a journey into speculation land shall we?

I am about to ramp up my studying for boards. I did well on the MCAT and my preclinical grades are good, yet as you note the associations with both these are dubious and varied across schools which had/has me worried. So I started talking to 3rd and 4th years (yes I know this kind of "study" is weaker than the weak one you tore apart), and you start to notice certain trends:

1. Person who did well on the MCAT and did poorly pre-clinically assumed that they were gonna do well so they did not study enough.
2. Person who did well pre-clinically and did poor on boards usually fall into pretty specific categories
-thought their pre-clinical performance was sufficient for boards so they didn't study as much as they should have
-they couldnt keep up the work anymore and their GAF broke
-X life even happened and they pushed through it ineffectively
3. Person did well on their COMSAE and thought they were good to go and didn't study as much as they needed to.

This is not an exhaustive list, but it boils down to "person did not study as much as they needed to." It seems that as soon as a person lets the god complex set in (minus the GAF breaking and unforeseen life events) is when they begin to fail. Though this kind of information is hard to fit into a study. It would be interesting to see if you could standardize it and fit it into a study while asking the question "all things the same (study habits, resources used, time invested, preclinical grades), do MCAT scores correlate with Step 1 success?"

Thoughts?

Its the problem that I stated before, it is a retrospective cohort study. This means you are looking backward in time and finding out if MCAT scores correlate with USMLE scores. It is a weaker end of the spectrum in terms of type of study. What you are stating above is more of a randomize study, which tries to control the variables that can be confounders. This is much much more powerful of a study than all the retrospective studies these medical schools push-out. However, it is extremely unpractical (people vary in habits) thus difficult to carry out. Part of my issue is that there has been no study, which I have read, that has convinced me that MCAT scores relate to USMLE success. This is mostly due to weaker study design (not much they can do, but at least a prospective cohort study should be possible) and calculations (they were lazy with their calculations).

However, it doesn't mean I don't think there is some predictive value. The problem is that we don't know what about the MCAT correlates with success in UMSLE. As it stands, I did rather poorly on the MCAT (<26, studied my ass off), but I'm currently in the top 1/4 of my class. Now based on the MCAT I should do poorly when USMLE times comes around, but based on my clinical grades I should do okay on the USMLE. Now which should I believe more?
 
Yeah I found that in about 7 seconds from a Google search. I'm sure I could find the other referenced studies.

Are you really not convinced that higher MCATs yield higher board scores? Is it really that hard to believe that students who are exceptional standardized test-takers will still be exceptional standardized test-takers a few years later? And that poor test-takers are still poor test-takers?

I'd love to see some evidence that MCAT scores have nor correlation to board scores (good luck). Until then I'll side with the common sense and (weak) evidence.

Lol stop


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I don't want to burst any bubbles, but a 245 isn't impressing anyone anymore. With the advent of board prep material and the increasing focus of medical schools on teaching to the board exam, the average USMLE scores have gone up quite rapidly, even from when I went through medical school not that many years ago. It does seem that the NBME is aware of it though and the scores have leveled off somewhat.

For example, a 245 is more like 76th percentile and not 93rd as mentioned. 93rd percentile would be around a 257-258.

http://www.usmle.org/pdfs/transcripts/USMLE_Step_Examination_Score_Interpretation_Guidelines.pdf
Your numbers are correct but keep in mind that a 245 is good enough to match any speciality. As in it won't be a hindrance. So it's still impressive in that sense. IMO.
 
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I don't understand this obsession with correlations. Just study hard, do the best you can, and learn medicine. There are way better things to do with your time than comparing yourself against predicted grade curves:


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I had a 33 MCAT. Get good grades in undergrad kids.
 
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Its the problem that I stated before, it is a retrospective cohort study. This means you are looking backward in time and finding out if MCAT scores correlate with USMLE scores. It is a weaker end of the spectrum in terms of type of study. What you are stating above is more of a randomize study, which tries to control the variables that can be confounders. This is much much more powerful of a study than all the retrospective studies these medical schools push-out. However, it is extremely unpractical (people vary in habits) thus difficult to carry out. Part of my issue is that there has been no study, which I have read, that has convinced me that MCAT scores relate to USMLE success. This is mostly due to weaker study design (not much they can do, but at least a prospective cohort study should be possible) and calculations (they were lazy with their calculations).

However, it doesn't mean I don't think there is some predictive value. The problem is that we don't know what about the MCAT correlates with success in UMSLE. As it stands, I did rather poorly on the MCAT (<26, studied my ass off), but I'm currently in the top 1/4 of my class. Now based on the MCAT I should do poorly when USMLE times comes around, but based on my clinical grades I should do okay on the USMLE. Now which should I believe more?

Neither. Ignore both predictions. It doesn't matter how well you did on the MCAT or how well you're doing right now in your pre-clinical coursework. It matters what you do to study for the exam when the time comes. If you put in the time now on your courses (to learn the material not just do well on the courses) and for the months leading up to it, you'll do well. If you don't, you won't, no matter how high your MCAT was.
 
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